Looked into COVID-19 Population Fatality Rate (PFR), which is how many individuals have died of the entire population.
At least 12 countries have now passed PFR = 0.1% and 5 countries are between 0.09-0.1%

For comparison, the the average PFR for seasonal influenza is ~0.01%
1/6 Image
The 12 countries with PFR >0.1% are:
Belgium 🇧🇪
Slovenia 🇸🇮
Bosnia 🇧🇦
Macedonia 🇲🇰
England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿
Bulgaria 🇧🇬
Italy 🇮🇹
Peru 🇵🇪
Montenegro 🇲🇪
USA 🇺🇸
Czech Republic 🇨🇿
Spain🇪🇸
2/6 Image
These estimates are without taking excess deaths into consideration, which is how estimates for influenza deaths are derived
(Note: the red line in the first graph, is DK’s 2017/2018 influenza season, which seems to be a very large outlier, compared to all other countries)
3/6 Image
Many examples of countries in which excess death and COVID-19 deaths deviate substantially

Two highlighted below are Mexico 🇲🇽 and Spain 🇪🇸
4/6 Image
Here are data on Mexico 🇲🇽
5/6

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More from @MartinJuhl2

3 Jan
Hvad ville der være sket, eller hvad vil ske, hvis vi mister kontrollen med smitten i DK

Dette er baseret på følgende

➡️Hvor mange vil blive smittet
➡️Ekstrapolering fra nuværende tal
➡️Brug af aldersjusterede dødelighed
➡️Læringer fra udlandet

1/x
R0 værdien (hvor mange 1 smittet, smitter videre) for SARS-CoV-2, er estimeret til 2,5

Man skal minimum op på 60% samlet set, dette kan godt ske i flere bølger. Hænger sammen med årstid & restriktioner

thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/…

Flokimmunitet = 1 - 1/R0
For SARS-CoV-2 = 60%
2/x ImageImage
Den spanske syge, influenza pandemien i 1918-1919, kom i tre bølger.

Det menes i følge bogen "The Great Influenza", at den første bølge var en mildere form, og efter mutation og "passage" gennem flere personer, blev mere dødelig

3/x ImageImageImage
Read 19 tweets
3 Jan
Collection of input to the discussion on:
➡️Two doses 3-4 weeks apart (per protocol)
vs
➡️Delay 2nd dose of up to 3 months

As with everything regarding this pandemic, there are no easy solutions, only difficult compromises.
1/x
@henrik_ullum @Heunicke @stinuslindgreen
Pfizer/BioBTech Protocol here

2nd dose is provided after 21 days & readout was 7 days after 2nd dose
pfe-pfizercom-d8-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/2020-09/C45910…
2/x ImageImage
Moderna dosing & schedule

The Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine is administered intramuscularly as a series of two doses (0.5
mL each) 1 month apart

fda.gov/media/144637/d…
3/x ImageImage
Read 13 tweets
29 Dec 20
Thorough comparison of SARS-CoV-2 and the seasonal influenza

Comparisons
➡️ CFR & IFR
➡️ Case-to-case
➡️ R0 & Herd theshold
➡️ Direct deaths to deaths
➡️ Relevant articles

1/x
Will use US and DK as examples

US had 12,000 - 61,000 deaths pr year (330 mill ppl)
And 9.3 - 45 mill estimated symptomatic infected

Both influenza deaths & symptomatic individuals are only estimates, based on statistical analysis, excess deaths, & sentinel monitoring
2/x
This paper states ~3-11% symptomatic flu cases pr year
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111…

Below refs show that there are an additional 50-75% asymptomatic cases, thus indicating 6-44% flu cases (incl asymptomatic) in total pr year
3/x
wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/22…

ecdc.europa.eu/en/seasonal-in…
Read 23 tweets
27 Dec 20
Man kan nemt blive snydt af tal. Denne graf bliver delt på sociale medier, og bliver brugt som argumentation for ikke at vaccinere <65 årige.
Jeg har set lidt på det, og hvorfor det er helt forkert
@henrik_ullum @SSTbrostrom @Heunicke
1/x
Hvis man regner med at virus bliver endemisk over tid, og vil smitte de fleste på et eller andet tidspunkt, samt bruger O'Driscoll aldersjusterede dødeligheds-data (IFR) for Europa og USA, så vil det klart være at foretrække, at vaccinere de fleste, inklusiv yngre under 65 år
2/x
I Europa vil man regne med at >600.000 vil død under 65 år, hvis alle blev smittet på et tidspunkt.
Her vil man kunne redde mange liv, ved at vaccinere yngre personer, måske helt op til ½ million mennesker <65 år alene i Europa og USA.
3/x
Read 18 tweets
26 Dec 20
With a potentially more infectious variant lurking around

Rate of transmission of the variant (B.1.1.7), estimated to be 71% (95% CI 67% to 75%) higher than for other variants, and pontentially it may also have a higher viral load.
1/5
bmj.com/content/371/bm…
If the new variant in more infectious, that means R0-value will also be higher, which means a higher threshold for herd immunity, which means more than the original 60% of the population needs to be infected/vaccinated.
2/5
cell.com/immunity/fullt… Image
As R0 increases, the proportion of the population that must be immune to generate herd immunity increases
(1 – 1/R0).
R0=1.5➡️33%
R0=2➡️50%
R0=2.5➡️60%
R0=3➡️67%
R0=4➡️75%

Thus it is positive that 80% of the DK population is willing to be vaccinated
3/5
nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2020-1…
Read 5 tweets
27 Nov 20
3 argumenter for at holde smitten nede

➡️Bedre økonomi
➡️markant lavere overdødelighed
➡️Vacciner kommer snart

1/12

@Heunicke @SSI_dk @SSTbrostrom
Oversigt over rapporter, som peger på at lande med lav smitte har klaret sig bedre økonomisk
2/12
Graf som viser sammenhæng mellem overdødelighed og Covid-19 dødsfald.
Lande med lidt smitte har også haft lav overdødelighed, mens lande med megen smitte har haft stor overdødelighed.
Det indikerer at restriktioner dræber markant færre end Covid-19
3/12
Read 12 tweets

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