Looked into COVID-19 Population Fatality Rate (PFR), which is how many individuals have died of the entire population.
At least 12 countries have now passed PFR = 0.1% and 5 countries are between 0.09-0.1%
For comparison, the the average PFR for seasonal influenza is ~0.01% 1/6
The 12 countries with PFR >0.1% are:
Belgium 🇧🇪
Slovenia 🇸🇮
Bosnia 🇧🇦
Macedonia 🇲🇰
England 🏴
Bulgaria 🇧🇬
Italy 🇮🇹
Peru 🇵🇪
Montenegro 🇲🇪
USA 🇺🇸
Czech Republic 🇨🇿
Spain🇪🇸 2/6
These estimates are without taking excess deaths into consideration, which is how estimates for influenza deaths are derived
(Note: the red line in the first graph, is DK’s 2017/2018 influenza season, which seems to be a very large outlier, compared to all other countries) 3/6
Many examples of countries in which excess death and COVID-19 deaths deviate substantially
Two highlighted below are Mexico 🇲🇽 and Spain 🇪🇸 4/6
Den spanske syge, influenza pandemien i 1918-1919, kom i tre bølger.
Det menes i følge bogen "The Great Influenza", at den første bølge var en mildere form, og efter mutation og "passage" gennem flere personer, blev mere dødelig
Below refs show that there are an additional 50-75% asymptomatic cases, thus indicating 6-44% flu cases (incl asymptomatic) in total pr year 3/x wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/22……
Man kan nemt blive snydt af tal. Denne graf bliver delt på sociale medier, og bliver brugt som argumentation for ikke at vaccinere <65 årige.
Jeg har set lidt på det, og hvorfor det er helt forkert @henrik_ullum@SSTbrostrom@Heunicke 1/x
Hvis man regner med at virus bliver endemisk over tid, og vil smitte de fleste på et eller andet tidspunkt, samt bruger O'Driscoll aldersjusterede dødeligheds-data (IFR) for Europa og USA, så vil det klart være at foretrække, at vaccinere de fleste, inklusiv yngre under 65 år
2/x
I Europa vil man regne med at >600.000 vil død under 65 år, hvis alle blev smittet på et tidspunkt.
Her vil man kunne redde mange liv, ved at vaccinere yngre personer, måske helt op til ½ million mennesker <65 år alene i Europa og USA. 3/x
With a potentially more infectious variant lurking around
Rate of transmission of the variant (B.1.1.7), estimated to be 71% (95% CI 67% to 75%) higher than for other variants, and pontentially it may also have a higher viral load. 1/5 bmj.com/content/371/bm…
If the new variant in more infectious, that means R0-value will also be higher, which means a higher threshold for herd immunity, which means more than the original 60% of the population needs to be infected/vaccinated. 2/5 cell.com/immunity/fullt…
As R0 increases, the proportion of the population that must be immune to generate herd immunity increases
(1 – 1/R0).
R0=1.5➡️33%
R0=2➡️50%
R0=2.5➡️60%
R0=3➡️67%
R0=4➡️75%
Graf som viser sammenhæng mellem overdødelighed og Covid-19 dødsfald.
Lande med lidt smitte har også haft lav overdødelighed, mens lande med megen smitte har haft stor overdødelighed.
Det indikerer at restriktioner dræber markant færre end Covid-19
3/12