🚨🚨🚚🚛🚨🚨email from Robert Hardy @RobHardyFR8 whose Customs Clearance Consortium is part of govt’s £200m scheme for GB-NI border warns of “huge shortage” of customs agents. Via @SJAMcBride /1

newsletter.co.uk/news/politics/…
He adds: “Export from GB with import to Ireland [is] amongst the most complicated...We expect heavy volumes at Dover from tonight as GB exports start to ramp up and many transporters do not have transit and EU clearance in place.” ...remember @BrandonLewis ‘no border’ tweet 🙄/2
He then warns - as @RHARichardB had warned - that the issue is companies providing poorly cleansed/matched data...and announces CCC doesn’t have capacity to raise docs in mainland EU/3
This is example of what Biz needs to do when moving agri foods - hauliers and vets tell me there is still no solution from Defra/Daera on how to do multiple pickups that require export health certificates at each stop (not uncommon) /4
In the next week or two we’ll see how these issue play into supply chains - and the issue that trucks flow in a cycle, GB-NI/IE-GB...so you need enough returning to keep the flow going. /5
I’ve been sent pic of Sainsbury’s in NI (Lisburn) stocking meat from Spar, which is making folk curious - tho not clear exactly why. /6
That’s not necessarily and issue - meat is meat - and it’s likely that supply chains will reorientate anyway.

Also Supermarkets to NI get a host of easements and derogations to keep show on the road.../7
It may be that the greater hassle is in goods that want to transit to GB via Ireland at short notice...which seems to be an unresolved areas.

But tbh everyone is gonna have to wait and see how this shakes down. /8
Be interesting to see take of @MichaelAodhan @Freight_NI at NI Affairs select cmme this AM (0930). You can watch here. ENDS

parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/d7…
Ps. The inestimable @JP_Biz has the answer to the Sainsbury’s stocking Spar meat curiosity. Contingency planning.

bbc.com/news/uk-northe…

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More from @pmdfoster

7 Jan
It's OUT! The first #Brexit Briefing of 2021...which explores how unrealistic some industry expectations are about 'fixes' to the current deal, now the penny is dropping about what it means for supply chains and UK position vis-a-vis EU 1/Thread

on.ft.com/2LdWSSG
So take the example this week, where the @Foodanddrinkfed raised the issue that UK-hubs for food and drink were "unworkable" since goods that came in from the EU were attracting full tariffs when the were spun back into Ireland or other EU members /2

ft.com/content/c068fc…
@Foodanddrinkfed They were backed by other EU associations - and both said they would lobby UK govt and @EU_Commission to 'fix' what they presumed was an "unintended consequence" of the deal....except that both EU officials and UK govt have basically shrugged. The deal is the deal. /3
Read 18 tweets
6 Jan
🚨🚨🚨🇪🇺🇬🇧🚛🚒🇪🇺🇬🇧🚨🚨🚨 serious #brexit story alert - companies now starting to see penny drop on what rules of origin does to supply chains (food for example) but Brussels seems deaf to both EU & U.K. pleading. A bellwether? 😬 Stay with me. 1/
on.ft.com/2JOIlMP
So first the problem: its a tad complicated but basically goods that are imported into UK and then 'hubbed' onwards into Ireland or other parts of the EU are facing full EU tariffs - this is particularly bad for food stuffs, which attract high tariffs. Why is this? /2
It's a function of the Rules of Origin clauses that mean that goods have to sufficiently "originate" in the UK to qualify for zero-tariff entry to EU (and vice versa).

But to qualify, you have to do something to the goods - process them or add value - not just punt them on /3
Read 12 tweets
2 Jan
Can we squash this tiresome trope that teachers don't want schools to open? Or that arguments for closing schools are somehow preserve of liberal/wet child-eating commies....this is about hard choices as the #COVID19 is running out of control (R above 1) /1
A decision to shut schools impacts different groups, whose interests all have to be weighted. Children. Teachers. Parents. The Economy. The NHS. Let's take each in turn. /2
First children. Simple one this. They are not (except in rare cases) impacted by the virus, but clearly they can pass it on to those who are impacted. They desperately need to be in school (I write as father of three teens in big Brighton state school) and suffer if they aren't/3
Read 19 tweets
1 Jan
Remember the government wanting to "follow the science"? It is remarkable how far it is ignoring scientific advice on this new ultra-infectious variant of #Covid-19 by keeping schools open... both SAGE and @imperialcollege issuing warnings on school closures. Stay with me. /1
@imperialcollege First the @imperialcollege paper, which finds that the new variant is still being ultra-infectious despite November lockdowns - link here, but cases of new variant trebled in SEast, even under lockdown /2

imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
@imperialcollege The paper then notes (given schools were open and under 20s are most infected): "A particular concern is whether it will be possible to maintain control over transmission while allowing schools to reopen in January 2021." /3
Read 11 tweets
30 Dec 20
So. How will the mechanisms to regulate fair competition in the new UK-EU trade pact land in the real world?

Here are two very opposing takes from two serious observers - my colleague @alanbeattie

ft.com/content/77bed4…

and Prof Damian Chalmers of @UKandEU. /1
The real differences seems to turn on how easy it will be for either party to show “material impact” from a subsidy or regulatory change in order to apply tariffs. @alanbeattie says hard, citing similar clauses in US deals that have proved toothless /2
While Prof Chalmers argues the impact test is actually very weak - weaker than the distortion test required to justify intra-EU regulation - and will result in EU policing U.K. sovereignty from Brussels /3
Read 6 tweets
28 Dec 20
NEW: 💃🕺💃🕺☄️🔥🇪🇺🇬🇧
#Brexit realities. Fashion industry fears London will lose allure after Brexit transition. My latest via @FT ...it’s a story of a new world or marginal hassles, that will make a big difference at the margin/1
on.ft.com/3ryGi0f
@FT So this is the issue. After Jan 1 models will need Tier5 sponsorship to come to UK and UK models in EU will need to follow national rules of 27 different EU member states. That doesn't make it impossible - but it's a hassle /2
@FT So here for example are the rules for Italy....(h/t @SamuelMarcLowe ) give them a read and you can see how much has changed.../3

mazzeschi.it/visa-for-fashi…
Read 8 tweets

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