Thread by @ecoinometrics

As far as the past cycles can be guides for the current one, it is clear that #Bitcoin at $10k or even $20k is a thing of the past.

Time for a thread 👇👇👇

1/ After the 1st halving #Bitcoin went straight up and topped at 100x from where it started with a single significant drawdown before the bear market.

2/ After the 2nd halving, the growth trajectory was much smoother with multiple drawdowns happening regularly along the way.

3/ And while we aren’t very far in this 3rd halving cycle, since October things are starting to look very similar to the 1st cycle.

4/ For each #Bitcoin cycle you can keep track of the drawdowns to rank them by size and time to reach the bottom.

When you do that you’ll observe that most of the dips are small and reach their bottom fast.

5/ So if you are going to play the odds keep in mind that:

- 50% of the drawdowns are smaller than 8%.
- 70% of the drawdowns are smaller than 15%.
- 80% of the drawdowns are smaller than 23%.
- 90% of the drawdowns are smaller than 37%.

Or using the current top 👇

6/ That doesn’t mean we won’t see a 50% or a 75% drop.

But given how infrequent those have been you can’t really count on that.

In the previous cycles, after the bull run started, #Bitcoin never revisited its starting level.

So don’t wait for the dip to start stacking sats.

7/ If you’ve learned something you’ll definitely want to check out the Ecoinometrics newsletter where I try to understand the place of #Bitcoin in the future of finance.

ecoinometrics.substack.com/p/ecoinometric…