Adam Briggs Profile picture
14 Jan, 20 tweets, 13 min read
PHE's latest COVID surveillance report now published. Covers 4th-10th Jan.

Cases rates remain astonishingly high and whilst they may be turning a corner, rates are still rising among 80yrs+.

Hospital admissions and deaths also rising fast.🧵…
There is a suggestion that in terms of case rates, we may have turned a corner.

This is great news for every age group EXCEPT over 80+yrs where case rates look to be climbing as fast as ever in ALL regions (and 70-79yrs also in NW, SW, Mids).
Here's the overall regional data.

Cases still climbing in the NW+, as well as SW and West Mids. Falling elsewhere.
Highest case rates still in SE/London - but not rising - and parts of NW, still rising.

**Note, the new scale on the chart this week, if PHE had continued with last week's scale, pretty much everything green and darker would be dark red😳(last week's map on the right...)**
Inequalities remain - both by ethnicity and deprivation.

And as case rates fall, the gradient by deprivation quintile for young adults is beginning to be exposed again. It's these groups who remain more likely to still have to work in lockdown.
With the rising case rates in over 80yrs, the number of incidents/outbreaks in care homes reported to PHE health protection teams is still rising.

This is devastating at the individual level, and also for hospitalisation rates and mortality.
For hospitals, slight drop in recorded incidents (note scale is a *tenth* of that for the care home graph).

And for the first week back in schools, very little signal so far.
However, there's a big jump for workplace incidents.

Adults aged 20-60yrs still have the highest case rates and we know there are a lot of people still having to travel into work.
For secondary care use and deaths it is entirely predictably dire.

Admission rates still racing up, and will continue to do so at this pace for another week at least.
There are now over 32,000 people in hospital in England with COVID-19.
The rise in admission rates is across the country, and still *including* London and the SE.

The NE is the only place that looks like it might be turning a corner.
And given the age distribution of admissions and the fact that case rates are still rising in those over 80yrs across the country, hospitals still have some hugely difficult weeks ahead.
ICU admission rates also dire with over 3,000 people in England on ventilation. And this is across the country.
Finally the number of deaths is rising, and will continue to do so for another 3 weeks at the least. Nothing we do now can help that.

It's also worth flagging that the 60 day definition alongside the 28 day definition has been used in these reports from the start.
Excess mortality is also very high, consistent with @ONS @NickStripe_ONS reporting. Particularly in London and SE in the last couple of weeks.
Please note, even if this is the start of a change in case rates, >1 in 50 people are infected & hospital admissions are rising fast in a resource limited system.
Lockdown is more important than ever. Please ask for help if needed & only go out if absolutely reqd. Including kids to school, travelling to work, popping into shops.

And @GOVUK, please recognise that people still need more support to isolate & home school - £/social/practical.
And thank you to all those who are still working to keep us safe. There's light at the end.
And here's the flu data.

No admissions reported, and flu vax at an all time high.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Adam Briggs

Adam Briggs Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ADMBriggs

14 Jan
Most recent Test and Trace data, covers 31st Dec - 6th Jan.

Mixed picture this week:
- tests, cases, contacts ⬆️
- test turnaround times still not great
- taking longer to reach cases, but contact tracing performance remains fairly strong

Detail in 🧵… Image
Following dip over Christmas week, number of people tested this week back up to 2.58m - 2.15m people tested in pillar 2 (community, including both PCR and rapid lateral flow devices) and 0.43m in pillar 1 (hospitals, just PCR). Image
For week ending 6th Jan, there was a 21% increase in number of people testing positive to 388k, with similar percentage increases in both pillar 1 and pillar 2. Image
Read 18 tweets
7 Jan
This week's test and trace data covering 24th to 30th Dec.

Case numbers and contacts rising steeply, and whilst contact tracing remains relatively consistent, some signs that the testing system may be under strain. 🧵… ImageImageImageImage
We know cases and positivity rates are going up. Today's PHE surveillance report (to 3rd Jan) puts the numbers into perspective, including the current unprecedented challenge facing acute services.

And as case numbers rose by 24% in most recent wk, the number of people getting tested fell by 30%.

Am not discussing detail of rapid lateral flow devices vs PCR tests here as not confident in the data, but PHE report PCR positivity now at over 16% for community testng (P2) ImageImageImage
Read 18 tweets
7 Jan
Latest @PHE_uk COVID surveillance rpt out, covers 28th Dec to 3rd Jan, will start to capture Christmas mixing.

It's devastating reading. Please do everything you can to comply with lockdown, and ask friends/family/your local gov if you need help.…
Case numbers and PCR positivity rising steeply. Across all ages and importantly >18yrs more so than <18yr - note step change in >80yrs.
This is also no longer and issue confined to London and the SE (and some potential v early promise the that London peak may be coming soon).
Read 15 tweets
1 Jan
Most recent Test and Trace data for 17th - 23rd Dec.

Worrying fall in test performance, contact tracing remains v strong. Apologies for the fairly long NY thread 🧵

(still no T&T graphs this week)…
A huge 2.4m people were tested - up 20% on the week before. And 232k people tested positive, 33% more than last week and more than double two weeks before.

Positivity up to 9.7% from 8.8% wk before (7.9% in pillar 1, 10% in pillar 2).

Figure is from @PHE_uk, to 27th December
Increasingly hard to interpret P2 test positivity trends (community testing).

Includes the rapid lateral flow devices (LFDs) and PCR tests.

LFDs increasing and now make up 10% of P2 tests (242k) but their positivity is just 1.8% (0.4% 2wks before).

P2 PCR positivity is 10.3%
Read 21 tweets
24 Dec 20
Because it's Christmas eve and there's not much else to do whilst sitting in a dark room waiting for small people to go to bed, here's a quick look at today's T&T data.

Covers 10-16th Dec.

Test times much worse, contact tracing continues to improve.🧵…
Any graphs this wk are from PHE report. T&T are just providing data update.

Number of people tested up 12% to 1.99m but positive tests up 58% to 174k, incl a v large 67% increase in pillar 2 (community testing, including use of lateral flow tests in those who are asymptomatic).
Big drop in performance for P2 test turnaround times.
- Regional test sites, 36% of results are provided within 24hrs of taking a test, down from 63% the week before.
- For local test sites the drop is from 51% to 22%
- Mobile test sites: from 68% to 48%
Read 12 tweets
24 Dec 20
PHE's weekly flu and COVID surveillance report now out.

Covering 15th-22nd December.

As PHE's Dr Yvonne Doyle says, this is not a normal Christmas. Please don't treat it like one.…
As the dashboard has been telling us, cases are now well above the second wave peak and despite increased use of LFDs, positivity is also rising fast.
Cases rising in all age groups, particularly 20-59yrs and now there looks to be relatively steep rises in 60-69yr olds.
Read 17 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!