This week's data update from SCB puts Sweden past a sad milestone: year 2020 recorded both the most excess *deaths* as well as the highest excess *mortality* (population adjusted) since the 1918 flu pandemic.
Latest official Swedish population stats: 𝟵𝟳,𝟭𝟲𝟰 preliminary deaths recorded in 2020
As per my analysis year 2020 has:
➡️highest excess mortality since 1931 (population-adjusted)
➡️most excess deaths since 1918 flu pandemic
➡️highest absolute mortality since 2013
Here's my weekly update from SCB on mortality in Sweden.
Year 2020 has: (1) the highest excess mortality since 1937 (pop. adjusted) (2) the most excess deaths since 1919 (not pop. adjusted) (3) annulled 7 years of all-cause mortality decline (highest ACM since 2013)
1/n
For their part, the Swedish government estimates 4859 as of 30 Nov:
The line representing average expected mortality on my chart is a LOWESS regression
Normally demographers use more sophisticated statistical algorithms (eg. Farrington) to do so. LOWESS is a sloppy technique, but it works well enough for rough estimates
3/n
The timing of when self-sustained transmission starts is crucial:
A and B are 2 identical countries implementing the same lockdown policy at the same time
If self-sustained transmission starts 𝟱 𝗱𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿 in A, then A will have 𝘁𝘄𝗶𝗰𝗲 the number of deaths
This is just math, based on various estimates that the epidemic doubling time of COVID was less than 5 days before lockdowns in spring 2020 academic.oup.com/jid/article/22…
In fact, because of this short doubling time, the timing between self-sustained transmission and lockdown is one of the most important factors that determines cumulative deaths per capita
This explains NYC and the Nordic countries. See next tweet.
The line representing average expected mortality on the chart is a LOWESS regression
Normally demographers use more sophisticated statistical algorithm (eg. Farrington) to do so. LOWESS is kind of a sloppy technique, but it works well enough
2/n
For more accurate results, I didn't include 2020 data in the LOWESS regression. Instead I cut off the smoothing at 2019, and assume that without COVID-19 the expected mortality would have continued its generally improving trend of the last decades through 2020
3/n
• family isolation
• ban public events of more than 8
• cinemas/museums/gyms closed
• nightlife curbed (alcohol ban)
• Tegnell: yes to face masks
• nursing home visit ban
• + many restrictions