New @ECDC_EU risk assessment on variants of concern says likelihood of them spreading in Europe is very high, likely leading to more transmission and death. “Stricter NPIs are needed to reduce transmission and relieve the pressure on healthcare systems.”
Detection:
- “Member States need to increase the level of surveillance and sequencing of a representative sample of community #COVID19 cases”
- “Member States should prepare laboratories for a higher demand for testing”
Curbing transmission:
- compliance with stricter non-pharmaceutical interventions than those currently implemented, and strengthened case detection with contact tracing
- non-essential travel should be avoided
- accelerate vaccination of high-risk groups
To be clear:
None of this is new or surprising.
What we need to do to combat #SARSCoV2 hasn’t changed.
It has just become a bit harder and a lot more urgent.
Story in 2021 is no different from 2020: We should have done more and we should have done it sooner.
And on immune escape:
“Member States should monitor vaccine effectiveness for these new variants. Breakthrough infections should be monitored, carefully investigated (including sequencing the virus variant causing breakthrough infection), and reported”.
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Today’s presentation from South Africa on 501Y.V2 (the second variant of concern in case you've lost count) is very interesting.
Regrettably it only adds to concerns about potential immune escape from this variant:
When convalescent sera from 44 people infected in first wave in South Africa was confronted with 501Y.V2, antibodies from 21 out of 44 did not recognize the variant.
Important to remember that our immunity is not just due to antibodies, but also T cells. So fingers crossed!
There are other caveats: Vaccine- induced immunity may be very different from natural immunity, for instance.
This is just one data point, but as so often in the last weeks I would have preferred different data 🤷♂️
Situation with new #sarscov2 variants is becoming harder to follow (and not just because of the names), so let me try and give a brief overview: Where are we at? What should we be worried about? And how worried?
For now there are three variants with sufficient evidence for scientists to be really concerned and I‘ll start with the newest one: P.1.
This was described on Tuesday from December samples from Manaus and had already been picked up in Japan in travelers. virological.org/t/genomic-char…
Why is it concerning? Three main reasons: 1. The place: P.1 is spreading in Manaus, which is experiencing a devastating surge after already experiencing a terrible wave of infections in March/April. @DrMikeRyan described the dire situation yesterday:
“Some countries in Europe, Africa and the Americas are seeing spikes in cases with multiple factors driving transmission risk”, says @drtedros at @WHO presser. “At present, there is immense pressure on hospitals and health workers."
@DrTedros@WHO “With almost 2 million deaths and new variants appearing in multiple countries, the emergency committee emphasized the need for governments to do all they can to curb infections through tried and tested public health measures”, says @DrTedros.
@DrTedros@WHO Push for equitable vaccine rollout needs to continue, says @drtedros
"I came into public health, because I wanted to ensure that everyone everywhere has access to quality health services.
I know what it's like to come from a continent where not all health services are available."
Big days ahead in German politics as the Christian Democrats choose a new leader and chart a course for a post-Merkel era.
If you want to get up to speed on what's at play (and who’s playing), this piece by @SophiaBesch and @COdendahl is a great start: cer.eu/insights/choos…
@SophiaBesch@COdendahl Unlike the Social Democrats, the CDU “has largely managed to hold together a broad coalition of voters. The key question for September is whether Merkel was the glue.
There is good reason to believe that she was.”
@SophiaBesch@COdendahl "No successor will have Merkel’s broad appeal and be able to hold onto that support once the pandemic is over. But some have a better chance than others. “
"One year ago, the first death from #COVID19 was reported”, says @DrTedros at @WHO presser. Now: almost 2 million deaths.
"And while we are hopeful about the safe and effective vaccines that are being rolled out, we want to see this sped up and vaccines allocated equitably."
@DrTedros@WHO "I call for a collective commitment so that within the next 100 days vaccination for health workers, and those at higher risk in all countries are underway”, says @drtedros.
@DrTedros@WHO A @WHO team is in China now, says @drtedros, "working with producers of the Sinovac and Sinopharm vaccines to assess compliance with international quality manufacturing practices ahead of potential emergency use listing by WHO”.
“Because #B117 can grow exponentially even in communities that are keeping #SARSCoV2 under control, the situation is extremely urgent. If we want vaccination to win this new race, we have to slow down the new virus while it’s still rare.”
Read @mlipsitch! statnews.com/2021/01/09/we-…
And @kesvelt, of course. Was missing space there...
What to do right now on #b117? 1. “find the enemy”: Test for the variant! 2. “redirect resources to the new and faster-spreading threat” 3. “consider diverting doses of #Covid19 vaccines to any region with large clusters of cases for whole-community vaccination”