#HDFCLife - Q3FY21 - First cut

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@dmuthuk

@Kiran24Rajput

(1/n)
HDFC Life has reported New business APE of Rs. 21,570 mn, growing 18% YoY & 1.1% QoQ.

(2/n)
Value of New business came in at 5,700 mn, growing 27% YoY & 4.2% QoQ.

(3/n)
Embedded Value for the quarter stood at Rs. 2,50,540 mn, up 20% YoY & 7.4% QoQ

(4/n)
Calculated VNB Margin came in at 26.4 %, up 184 bps YoY & 79 bps QoQ

(5/n)
Expense Ratio for the quarter was at 18.3%, up 47 bps YoY & 326 bps QoQ

(6/n)
Persistency Ratio for 13/37/61 month came in at 92.9%/72.1%/51.8%, up/down by 410/60/-80 bps YoY & 210/30/-60 bps QoQ

(7/n)
Solvency Ratio was healthy at 202%, up 700 bps YoY & down 100 bps QoQ

(8/n)
HDFC Life trades at an FY22E P/EV of 4.8x for an FY21E/22E/23E RoEV (operating) profile of 18.7%/18.1%/17.7%

(9/9)

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More from @MlnDollarMinds

23 Jan
#HDFCLife - Key ConCall highlights post Q3FY21

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@dmuthuk

@Kiran24Rajput

(1/n) Image
Business Update: Witnessing improving customer confidence reflected in new business trends in individual as well as group credit protect business. Continue to see improved pickup in savings business due increased volume as well as ticket size.
Š
(2/n)
Product mix remains balanced. Constant endeavour to grow annuity protect business. Remains watchful on renewal and persistency trend.

(3/n)
Read 23 tweets
21 Jan
Yogesh Mehta from Yield Maximisers on #ITC. He believes the stock could be valued at 35-40x PE in next 3-4 years.

Source - Economic Times

Time for a thread πŸ‘‡πŸ»πŸ‘‡πŸ»

@dmuthuk

@Kiran24Rajput

(1/n)
ITCs balance sheet is distributed 45-55 between cigarette and the non cigarette business.

(2/n)
If with a price hike in cigarette business and a volume growth of ~4%, EBITDA rises by ~8%. It will not be significant on balance sheet but it will be positive because every time in the budget , everyone is expecting sin tax to be increased & that is a burden ITC carries

(3/n)
Read 9 tweets
12 Jan
Few conclusion drawn from @Howardmarksbook cofounder of @oaktree Jan 2021 newsletter.

@dmuthuk @packyM @mariodgabriele

Time for thread πŸ‘‡πŸ»πŸ‘‡πŸ»πŸ‘‡πŸ»

(1/n)
Value investing doesn’t have to be about low valuation metrics. Value can be found in many forms. The fact that a company grows rapidly, relies on intangibles such as technology for its success and/or has a high p/e ratio shouldn’t mean it can’t be invested.

(2/n)
Many sources of potential value can’t be reduced to a number. As Albert Einstein purportedly said,β€œNot everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts.” The fact that something can’t be predicted with precision doesn’t mean it isn’t real.

3/n
Read 8 tweets
28 Dec 20
Distribution: Agency channel remains sub-optimal for most of the insurers

(20/n)
Distribution: Bank branch productivity was also under pressure for HDFCLFE (due to market share loss) and IPRU

(21/n)
Profitability: Negligible operating variance + Decline in Unwind + Weak VNB Gearing = Structurally lower ROEVs

(22/n)
Read 4 tweets
28 Dec 20
Indian Insurance - Comparison of Insurance leaders on key parameters

Time for a thread ...

#HDFCLife #Insurance

@dmuthuk

(1/n)
Value vs. Volume (Individual APE)

(2/n)
Product Mix

(3/n)
Read 19 tweets
28 Dec 20
Alcobev Virtual Conference hosted 8 companies: listed and unlisted players; Management commentaries highlight positive trends after the extreme phase of Covid-19

#UnitedSpirit #UNSP a stock worth accumulating.

Time for a thread πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡

@dmuthuk @Kiran24Rajput
(1/n)
United Spirit Management comments on the industry and the company.

Demand has returned to pre-Covid-19 levels. It is also benefiting from some tailwinds – duty-free shifting to duty-paid and shift from beer.
(2/n)
On-premise footfalls are still lower at 25-30%, while on weekends footfalls are a bit better. Wedding impact is still there but not that visible as the rest of the top end is growing well. Overall demand, including off-premise, has improved much better than expectation.
(3/n)
Read 12 tweets

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