So I do this thing every year called ADP trends. Basically looking at the ADP change for each player before and after their rookie years.

Face planters are bad bets. (lose 12 or more spots of ADP)

And hence that rookie you want to buy-low on is a very bad idea.

Let's dive in
Here is a list of WR that lost 12 or more spots since 2007 from the first round of dynasty rookie drafts.

#badbets Image
Now I get that you are going to tell me that player x is different because he was injured! And I totally understand the rationale. But ZERO of the guys that went on to hit had extensive injuries as rookies.
The four guys that went on to hit had this many games played:

DT - 10
Golden Tate - 11
Nelson Agholor - 13
Tyler Boyd - 16

These arent "he barely played" szns
Or another popular objection is, "but, but, but he was a good prospect so we just need to give him time."

And maybe that's true, but good prospects (or at least good prospects based on what I look at are far from immune).
I've got 4 Bulletproof players on this list and only one recovered. Maybe I am writing off N'Keal Harry too soon, but he has done zero things in the NFL that give me hope he's going to turn it around.
From the coinflip tier 3/14 recovered. 21%

That is a far cry from a coinflip.
Demaryious Thomas is the lone player on the list that I think probably deserved the benefit of the doubt

I could be wrong but I believe he fell because he had a particularly unique starting quarterback named Tim Tebow

Tebow wasnt exactly known for his passing skillz
Considering the rest of his metrics that matter were pretty solid including a mesmerizing rookie year PFF grade of 82.7.

That still puts him at 9th in rookie year PFF grade since they started tracking it
If we look at his sophomore comps given the benefit of hindsight and pretend he was a 2020 rookie and we knew what we know now about the rest of the players in the database, these were his closest comps among drafted WR's back to 2003. Image
I can get behind this kind of buy low as he was being faded for his situation. Not his talent.

The other guys, dont have comps like this.
And if we flip to receivers drafted in the 2nd round of dynasty rookie drafts we see a whole bunch of guys that weren't worth your investment. Image
Now obviously there will be players that hit from time to time. But historically this has been a near death sentence.

Guys that recover are unicorns and as a principle I dont go chasing unicorns.
I use May as the cutoff for this so I dont know where the 2020 class will fall yet, but my guess is that the following players will be added to this list:

Jalen Reagor
Henry Ruggs
Michael Pittman
Denzel Mims
Bryan Edwards
This is the kind of thing that heavily influences my dynasty rankings on patreon.

If you are into this type of analysis, please join us!

We have literally the best fantasy football discord community running.... in my totally unbiased opinion anyway.
If you arent sure if its worth it, check out this string of testimonials from the patrons...

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More from @DFBeanCounter

28 Jan
So as you know by now, buying rookie face planters is typically a bad idea.

But what about at the NFL's most important position, Quarterback?

Let's dive in.
I use 1 qb adp because superflex startup adp doesnt go back very far. That means that good QB prospects can go in rounds 1-4 of dynasty rookie drafts. So I am not going to break it down that way for QB.

Instead we'll separate by first and second round NFL picks.
Here are the first round picks that face planted for ADP when comparing their startup ADP before and after their rookie years.

This is based on using May as the cutoff month. Image
Read 11 tweets
27 Jan
The other day I had said that buying face planting rookie WR's was a bad idea...

But what about RB's?!

Let's dive in.
This is a look at all of the rookie RB's that went in the first round of dynasty rookie drafts since 2007 that lost more than 12 spots in startup adp after their rookie year. Image
4/23 went on to hit a single top 12 season or more. 17%.

Historically this has not been a good bet to make. Don't make bad bets.
Read 18 tweets
3 Jan
People keep pointing to Terry McLaurin as this great example of a player that was held back in college because of his great teammates and that's why he didn't breakout in college..

Let's take a quick look at the studs holding him back his last two years in college..
2017 receiving yards leaders.

Feel free to stop me when I get to the studs

Parris Campbell - 584
KJ Hill - 549
Terry McLaurin - 436
Johnnie Dixon - 422
Binjimen Victor - 349
Austin Mack - 343
2018 receiving leaders

Parris Campbell - 1,063
KJ Hill - 885
Terry McLaurin - 701
Johnnie Dixon - 669
Read 4 tweets
3 Jan
It has been brought to my attention that there are a great many breakout age deniers #onhere or perhaps just some are uninformed.

Let's see what history can teach us about Devonta's chances, shall we?

Let's dive in.
As always, the first thing to look at is the overall hit rate.

I have 361 players in my database with a breakout age that were drafted in rounds 1-7 from 2003-2017.

The hit rate is:

Top 12 - 54/361 = 15%
Top 24 - 81/361 = 22%

So lets see if Breakout age can explain that
First we'll look at breakout age by age for the full sample from rounds 1-7 and then we'll start controlling for draft capital.

Up first - No breakout age.

Top 12 - 2/43 = 5%
Top 24 - 2/43 = 5%
Read 25 tweets
2 Jan
One of the things that I think is rather fascinating is the early declare aspect of WR evaluations.

As you know, Devonta Smith had the opportunity to declare last year but presumably the NFL said no thanks.

Let's dive in.
This is the overall hit rate, not accounting for draft capital. This is just everyone that has been drafted from rounds 1-7.

Top 12 - 54/361 = 15%
Top 24 - 81/361 = 22%
So lets start cutting it down.

Here are the early declares with no control for draft capital.

Top 12 - 32/110 = 29%
Top 24 - 45/110 = 41%
Read 16 tweets
1 Jan
After hitting 6k last night I started reflecting on how I ended up in this fantasy football space.

I thought you might be interested in a bit of an unusual story.
It all started back in 2015. I was talking to one of my best friends about how my redraft team had performed in week 1. He mentioned that he had never been in a league and would love to give it a try.

I had always wanted to start a dynasty league but had no idea how. 💡
I promptly called everyone that I knew that played fantasy football to see if they'd be interested in trying out a dynasty league.

We ended up finding 9 people and one friend said he didnt have the time, but that he would "draft" the team and we could find someone to takeover
Read 44 tweets

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