#thread follow up to previous thread below
i repeat the same excercise with positivity rate instead of reproduction rate vs stringency index by adding country, week and both effects in the panel regressions
#COVID19
1/n
the graphs:
(notice higher positive rate when stringency stronger)
benchmark: within R² = 5.82%
+country dummies: same
+week dummies = 47.36% (~ x 100 w/r benchmark)
+country & week dum. = as above
again "seasonality" explains most of what is going on in the data
#COVID19
2/n
and so again one can ask if they #lockdown during colder seasons and this makes actually things worse ?
#COVID19
3/3
you can find me and similar stata monkey analysis on my TG channel: t.me/chrisgodlak

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More from @ChrisGodlak

30 Jan
#thread
Following recent success of this thread (thanks @FatEmperor i guess :)just wanted to get back to this
i will just take the first graph as exemple: it's reproduction rate vs stringency index
panel (country-time in days) regression with random effects
#COVID19
1/n
i put the initial graph as "benchmark" and i add 3 other graphs
panel regression with random effects
with countries dummies included
with weeks dummies included
with countries & weeks dummies included
and we will compare the R² as these are the only changing in this excercise
2/n
in panel regression what is most important is the R² within
adding country effects changes nothing
adding weeks (i.e. time trend or "seasonality" in this context) increases a lot the R² within (~ x100)
adding countries & weeks => same results as with weeks added only
3/n
Read 6 tweets
28 Jan
3. seasonality in various hospi. data curves
#COVID19

2/n
4. demographics !
yep we have lots of baby-boomers, particularly in Western Europe:
#COVID19

3/n
Read 15 tweets
28 Jan
Inspired by this #thread on #lockdown and #cases in several countries by @tomyhub :
I replicate the same excercise but add 'tests' and hospitalizations along with 'cases'
Here is Lithuania
1/n
#COVID19
Here is Poland
2/n
#COVID19 #lockdown
Here is France
3/n
#COVID19 #lockdown
Read 16 tweets
27 Jan
#thread
Comme les données sur les vaccinations et les rdv sont désormais là:
data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/do…
data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/do…
On peut commencer à visualiser la situation... mais c'est encore tôt !
#COVID19 #covid19france #vaccinationCovid
1/n
Les vaccins et les taux de variations (journalier et hebdomadaire):
#covid19france #vaccinationCovid
2/n
Les vaccins par grande région:
(IDF en force forcément par le nombre)
#covid19france #vaccinationCovid
3/n
Read 11 tweets
25 Jan
Things that makes you go hmm
Reproduction rate vs Stringency index in Europe
overall R² = 2.36%
#Covid_19
Hmm continues
Positive rate vs vs Stringency index in Europe
R²=3.99%
notice fitted values higher for positive rate when stringency index higher
#Covid_19
another hmm
New cases per million vs Stringency index in Europe
R²=1.09%
#Covid_19
Read 20 tweets

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