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30 Jan, 5 tweets, 4 min read
Remember when Citigroup downgraded MicroStrategy to a “sell” rating? That was at the beginning of December.

Back then MSTR was up 150% since their first #Bitcoin purchase.

At the close on Friday $MSTR was up 350% since their first #BTC purchase...

Time for an update 👇👇👇
1/ So far MicroStrategy bought #Bitcoin five times for a total of 70,784 #BTC. At the close on Friday their return on treasury hodlings over 100%. 👇👇👇
2/ When you consider that the value of MicroStrategy’s #Bitcoin treasury is equivalent to more than 40% of their market cap it is easy to imagine that the value of $MSTR is heavily driven by that of #BTC. 👇👇👇
3/ This is reflected in the evolution of the one month correlation between #Bitcoin and $MSTR:

- MSTR vs NASDAQ at -7% correlation
- MSTR vs BTC at +67% correlation

At those levels MicroStrategy behaves like a pseudo Bitcoin ETF.
5/ If you want more charts and more thoughts on the place of Bitcoin in the future of finance subscribe to the Ecoinometrics newsletter 👇
ecoinometrics.substack.com/p/ecoinometric…

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More from @ecoinometrics

ecoinometrics Profile picture
10 Jan
As far as the past cycles can be guides for the current one, it is clear that #Bitcoin at $10k or even $20k is a thing of the past.

Time for a thread 👇👇👇
1/ After the 1st halving #Bitcoin went straight up and topped at 100x from where it started with a single significant drawdown before the bear market.
2/ After the 2nd halving, the growth trajectory was much smoother with multiple drawdowns happening regularly along the way.
Read 8 tweets
ecoinometrics Profile picture
13 Dec 20
MicroStrategy is about to buy $650 million worth of #Bitcoin and raise their total investment to $1.125 billion.

When it comes to public companies $MSTR is winning the #BTC treasury game by a good margin.

Time for a thread 👇👇👇
1/ MicroStrategy started their #Bitcoin treasury program back in August.

The least we can say is that this was good for $MSTR shareholders.

See for yourself 👇
2/ Looking at MicroStrategy's stock correlations it is clear that something happened.

Before:
MSTR vs BTC correlation +22%
MSTR vs NASDAQ correlation +51%

After:
MSTR vs BTC correlation +53%
MSTR vs NASDAQ correlation +20%
Read 6 tweets
ecoinometrics Profile picture
29 Nov 20
Depending on who you ask, #Bitcoin could be worth anywhere between $50k and $300k by the end of this halving cycle.

Ok, but how big is that compared to other assets?

Time for a thread 👇👇👇
1/ At the current price, the market size of #Bitcoin is that of a large cap stock.

That’s big but for digital gold it isn’t that big.
2/ Talking about digital gold, #Bitcoin is only about 3.6% of the size of the gold market…

So there is plenty of room to grow in order to catch up.
Read 5 tweets
ecoinometrics Profile picture
27 Nov 20
Year to date #Bitcoin has easily outpaced gold in terms of growth.

This trend is accelerating, so naturally it is time for a quick thread 👇👇👇 Image
1/ When you zoom out the long term trend is hard to miss.

But gold is not yet at its lowest point against #Bitcoin. Image
2/ The real #Bitcoin breakout is still recent so the correlation with gold remains high.

But as the trend develops we should see it decrease over time. Image
Read 5 tweets
ecoinometrics Profile picture
17 Oct 20
The #Fed Playbook
Oct. 17, 2020

The Federal Reserve is back in business.

So I guess it's time for a thread. 👇👇👇

1/ This week the balance sheet stands at $7.15 trillion which is close to its all time high.

But new records are incoming.
2/ Since the start of the #Fed intervention this year they have added $2.9 trillions to the system.

Looks like a lot but in percentage terms it is a much smaller expansion than in 2008.
3/ After 2008, all that money added to the system has inflated the valuation of various financial assets but most of all the stock market.
Read 6 tweets
ecoinometrics Profile picture
21 Aug 20
The #Fed Playbook
Aug. 20, 2020

What's up with the Federal Reserve this week? Time fo a thread. 👇

1/ The balance sheet is back above $7 trillion. We are probably not going to go very much below that this year. ImageImageImage
2/ Since the start of the #Fed intervention this year that's $2.8 trillions added.

Sure that's a lot of money... but in percentage that's only a 65% expansion.

There is a lot more room for growth if we compare to what happened after the 2008 crisis. 🧐 ImageImage
3/ But the #FOMC doesn't really have a choice... #stonks need to go up... Image
Read 5 tweets

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