UK public discourse seems to be even growing in furore over the Art. 16 debacle. But even if you acknowledge the EU Commission made a mistake, it is time for much needed perspective:
The EU Commission got under quick pressure from Ireland and corrected the mistake within a few hours. Further internal pressure will now lead to safeguards around the NI protocol.
While the UK gov is today threatening to trigger art. 16, last year threatened to violate the NI protocol with the Internal Market Bill and got the House of Commons to vote twice for that explicit violation of the UK's legal commitments.
In the meantime, the UK prime minister never acknowledged that the NI protocol together with the hard #Brexit both of which he negotiated and the UK Parliament voted for invariably leads to trade frictions between NI and the rest of the UK. The choices made have consequences.
Finally, the EU as well has a responsibility to make the NI protocol work. It violated that on Friday but quickly reversed. This is however no grounds for the UK to walk away from the consequences of its choices nor a invitation to break the NI protocol again.

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More from @NvOndarza

3 Dec 20
Rumours are flying wild on how close we are to a #Brexit deal. My sense is that a deal is still possible, but the necessary compromises have yet to be made and time is running out soon.

To me it is therefore high time to think also about the political ramifications of no deal.
In this analysis, I look at three political scenarios:
1. Friendly no deal - in which EU and UK seemlessly continue negotiations and try to limit no deal fallout via unilateral actions and mini deals. Ruled out by the EU, though the temptation will be there in some member states.
2. A 'grown-up no deal' - in which the no deal consequences come, but after some confrontations both sides get back to negotiation table quickly. Preferred by EU, likely will be supported by US, but does not square with UK politics which will need to blame EU for no deal fallout.
Read 8 tweets
1 Oct 20
Always interesting for EU nerds to look at the bilaterals around an #EUCO and what they say about the power dynamics and conflicts between member states.

Out of curiosity, I put together who @eucopresident met around the #EUCO on the MFF/Recovery Fund negotiations in July /1
@eucopresident A few interesting findings:
- Most meetings were with Macron, Merkel and @vonderleyen
- Michel met Merkel and Macron always together, highlighting the Franco-German push on the MFF
- More active EU policy of Sanchez and Conte got them into the inner circle

/2
@eucopresident @vonderleyen - The most involved smaller MS were the 'trouble makers'
> Rutte/NL as informal leader of the frugal four
> Orban/HU as the leader with most resistance against the rule of law provisions.
- Only EU MS with no participation at the 'balcony diplomacy' were Romania + Cyprus
/3
Read 4 tweets
24 Sep 20
Today will be the 70th #Königswinter Conference, the annual British-German exchange that brings together great people from the respective governments, parliaments, industries and academia.

It is also a good time to reflect on British-German relations four years into #Brexit.
The good: Foreign and Security Policy has been mostly shielded from Brexit, even during the most difficult negotiations.

The E3 cooperation is going strong, and Germany and the UK continue to cooperate closely in other international fora such as the G7 or the UN. Image
The bad: From a German perspective, the EU was the most important framework to engage with the UK.

Trade has already suffered, even before the UK has left the transition period.

On many issues the UK is now not in the arena most relevant for German economic policy. Image
Read 8 tweets
16 Sep 20
This morning @vonderleyen will give her first "State of the Union" speech to the European Parliament.

Admittedly, even as an EU nerd I have yet to get attached to the tradition. I would struggle to name a single #SOTEU speech that made a lasting impact.
Could this year be different? Expect a positive outlook after a difficult year, with a focus on Green Deal, digitalisation, the EU coming together over the recovery fund, migration and a touch on European strategic autonomy.
#Brexit will likely not be a major issue, besides a call to the UK to keep its commitments and a declaration of willingness to strike a strong partnership.
Read 7 tweets
14 Sep 20
It is almost as if the UK government wants to recreate the atmosphere from the 2019 'Brexit Wars' within the UK parliament.

It is important to stress, however, how vastly different the current #Brexit negotiations are to 2019:
1. The debate about the #InternalMarketBill is about the UK adhering to what it has already agreed, not about what it should agree with the EU.

This why even some ardent Brexiteers oppose it, as it is a question on how the UK stands to the international rule of law.
2. The UK has already left the EU in January 2020, the mandate from the Brexit vote has been discharged. There is neither a short route nor a credible political force in the UK paving the way to reverse the UK's exit from the EU.

Brexit has happened.
Read 5 tweets
10 Sep 20
On #Brexit, today I am again reminded of Nietzsche's tale about the footbridge:

"There was a time in our lives when we were so close that nothing seemed to obstruct our friendship and brotherhood, and only a small footbridge separated us...
Just as you were about to step on it, I asked you: “Do you want to cross the footbridge to me?” —Immediately, you did not want to any more; and when I asked you again, you remained silent...
...Since then mountains and torrential rivers and whatever separates and alienates have been cast between us, and even if we wanted to get together, we couldn’t. But when you now think of that little footbridge, words fail you and you sob and marvel."
Read 4 tweets

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