Latest PHE weekly COVID surveillance report, covers 25th to 31st January.

Cases, admissions, deaths all falling; vaccination numbers rising.

Signs are good but ICU admission rates are still double that seen in the first wave. We're not there yet. 🧵

gov.uk/government/sta…
Case rates are falling in all ages and all regions.

The percentage of PCR tests coming back positive (positivity) is also now clearly falling in in pillar 1 (NHS/PHE labs for health care workers and those in clinical need), as well as pillar 2 (community testing).
And for those who like to squint, I really like the chart from PHE showing case rates by age and region.

For example, it shows that 0-9 yr olds track along the bottom and 20-29 yr olds along the top throughout this wave.
However, the regional data mask important variation by local authority.

Particularly in parts of the NW, West Midlands, and London.
As case rates fall, important inequalities by ethnicity and deprivation remain.
This is my favourite chart this week.

As case rates drop and more people are getting vaccinated, some signs that the huge burden on care homes may be easing.

The number of incidents/outbreaks known to be due to COVID has nearly halved since last week.
The number of incidents in hospitals has also dropped...
...but this isn't the case in schools and workplaces despite falling cases rates.
Hospital admission rates have also well and truly peaked in all regions and all ages.

But admission rates are still around *50% higher* than admission rates at the peak of the second wave in early November.
We're now past the peak in ICU admissions as well, but note how much this is driven by London and NW. In West Mids ICU admissions are still rising.

Plus admission rates are still *double* the peak of the second wave in Nov.
Worth noting the drop in ICU admissions may not be as fast as the fall in hospital admissions as empty beds are filled by people who should really have been on ICU but were being managed on wards, and because people are generally younger and outside of priority vax cohorts.
Finally, deaths also look to have largely peaks at last.

Although the daily death count remains upsettingly high and excess mortality is stark.
In more positive news, the vaccine roll-out continues to race along, and we now have trial confirmation that the Ox/AZ vaccine also reduces spread as well as disease severity.

Hopefully it will all act to accelerate the fall in case numbers, admissions, and deaths.
In the meantime, hospitals remain under enormous strain.

Please continue to help by staying a home as much as possible, getting tested if symptomatic, isolating when necessary, and asking for help when things are difficult - neighbours, friends, family, and your local gov.

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More from @ADMBriggs

28 Jan
Latest Test & Trace data - 14-20th Jan.

-Cases and tests down (except rapid lateral flow device use increasing).
-T&T turnaround times & contact tracing either similar or improving.

TL,DR: probably not great for RTs, but good for tackling COVID.

🧵

gov.uk/government/pub…
As case rates fall, so are the numbers of people getting tested - down 5% on last week.
In pillar 2 - community testing - the number of rapid LFD tests being used continues to rise, 1.3m tests used and 12.8k people tested positive (972k tests last week with 14.3k positive).

Whereas the number of P2 PCR tests was down 17%.
Read 15 tweets
28 Jan
Latest @PHE_uk COVID surveillance report now out. Covers 18th-24th Jan.

Cases have peaked, as have hospitalisations in some regions.

But hospital occupancy remains as high as ever and deaths are still rising. Please continue to take care. 🧵

gov.uk/government/sta…
Recorded case rates are falling in *all* age groups. And almost as quickly as the rose. This is a good thing.

The @ONS COVID infection survey is due to update tomorrow which will be helpful to see how closely the PHE data reflect community prevalence in the survey.
Also the % of PCR tests that are positive (positivity %) in pillar 2 is also reassuringly falling.

However, not in pillar 1 for most ages. Pillar 1 includes NHS or PHE lab tests for health care workers and those in clinical need.
Read 18 tweets
24 Jan
Better late than never.

Thursday's Test & Trace data covering 7th - 13th Jan.

⬆️people tested
⬇️cases
⬇️not enough contacts
🤷‍♂️people isolating

Summary in figure, detail in 🧵
gov.uk/government/pub…
Big jump in number of people tested. Up 14% to 2.9m (>5% of English population in a single week).
This is partly due to a 20% increase (from 435k to 521k) in number of people tested in pillar 1.

These are NHS and PHE labs - generally used for hospital patients and more complex settings, with some of the increase because there are more people in hospital and more outbreaks.
Read 20 tweets
21 Jan
This week's @PHE_uk COVID surveillance report's just out.
Most recent week covered is 11th-17th Jan.

Case numbers may have peaked but hospital situation remains critical & deaths continue to rise, with large regional variation.

We're not out of this yet. Please stay 💪.

🧵
For two weeks in a row there are decrease in number of cases.

It seems fairly clear that with lockdown, infection rates are declining in all regions. Importantly (compared with last week) this now includes those aged 80+.
In some regions, particularly those with high case rates in this wave, infection rates are coming down fairly quickly.

In other regions & ages, there is little shift in some age groups. For example, see age 40-60yrs in East and West Mids.

This is *despite* being under lockdown.
Read 23 tweets
14 Jan
Most recent Test and Trace data, covers 31st Dec - 6th Jan.

Mixed picture this week:
- tests, cases, contacts ⬆️
- test turnaround times still not great
- taking longer to reach cases, but contact tracing performance remains fairly strong

Detail in 🧵

gov.uk/government/pub…
Following dip over Christmas week, number of people tested this week back up to 2.58m - 2.15m people tested in pillar 2 (community, including both PCR and rapid lateral flow devices) and 0.43m in pillar 1 (hospitals, just PCR).
For week ending 6th Jan, there was a 21% increase in number of people testing positive to 388k, with similar percentage increases in both pillar 1 and pillar 2.
Read 18 tweets
14 Jan
PHE's latest COVID surveillance report now published. Covers 4th-10th Jan.

Cases rates remain astonishingly high and whilst they may be turning a corner, rates are still rising among 80yrs+.

Hospital admissions and deaths also rising fast.🧵

gov.uk/government/sta…
There is a suggestion that in terms of case rates, we may have turned a corner.

This is great news for every age group EXCEPT over 80+yrs where case rates look to be climbing as fast as ever in ALL regions (and 70-79yrs also in NW, SW, Mids).
Here's the overall regional data.

Cases still climbing in the NW+, as well as SW and West Mids. Falling elsewhere.
Read 20 tweets

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