“It seems increasingly clear that manufacturers will have to adjust to the evolution of the virus, taking into account the latest variants for future shots, including boosters”, says @DrTedros at @WHO presser. “We have to be ready to adapt vaccines so they remain effective."
@DrTedros@WHO "These developments highlight why it's so important to scale up manufacturing and rollout vaccines as quickly as possible and as widely as possible to protect people before they're exposed to new variants”, says @drtedros.
@DrTedros@WHO “We need to do everything we can to reduce circulation of the virus with proven public health measures”, says @DrTedros. "Several countries are succeeding in suppressing transmission including those where new variants are circulating."
@DrTedros@WHO Everyone can help protect vaccines, says @DrTedros. "Every time you decide to stay at home, to avoid crowds, to wear a mask or to clean your hands, you're denying the virus the opportunity to spread, the opportunity to change in ways that could make vaccines less effective."
@DrTedros@WHO@ProfAbdoolKarim South Africa has been assessing lab data on how well antibodies induced by vaccines do against 501.Y.V2, says @ProfAbdoolKarim. Some vaccines showed little change. “With other vaccines, such as the AstraZeneca vaccine we saw very substantial reductions in neutralizing activity."
@DrTedros@WHO@ProfAbdoolKarim "We don't fully understand what those laboratory results mean, so we need clinical data”, says @ProfAbdoolKarim. "Fortunately, three of the vaccines have been tested in South Africa where the 501Y.V2 variant constitutes about 80 to 90% of the circulating virus”.
@DrTedros@WHO@ProfAbdoolKarim Yesterday’s AZ results are concerning, says @ProfAbdoolKarim. "Not because we were not expecting some diminished activity, but it was the level to which it was diminished. And so now we are unclear and uncertain about the efficacy of the vaccine” in preventing severe disease.
@DrTedros@WHO@ProfAbdoolKarim South Africa is delaying rollout of AZ vaccine to think about options, says @ProfAbdoolKarim. "We don't want to end up with a situation where we vaccinated a million or 2 million people with a vaccine that may not be effective in preventing hospitalization and severe disease."
@DrTedros@WHO@ProfAbdoolKarim South Africa may go for a stepwise immunization campaign with AZ to collect some real-world data, says @ProfAbdoolKarim. “One proposal that's currently being considered is to roll it out initially, just in a state where the first step, includes about 100,000 individuals."
@DrTedros@WHO@ProfAbdoolKarim Several lessons to take from recent events, says @GaviSeth: "The first is that manufacturers must be prepared to adjust to #COVID19 viral evolution, including potentially providing future booster shots and or adaptive vaccines, if found to be scientifically necessary."
@DrTedros@WHO@ProfAbdoolKarim@GaviSeth "It's also clear that trials have to be designed and maintained to allow efficacy to be assessed over time, and to be of sufficient scale and diversity to enable clear interpretations of the results”, says @GaviSeth.
@DrTedros@WHO@ProfAbdoolKarim@GaviSeth "We know that we need much better global genomic surveillance and that has to be backed by rapid sharing of data to allow for the global coordination of response”, says @GaviSeth.
@DrTedros@WHO@ProfAbdoolKarim@GaviSeth “Priority needs to be given to vaccinating high risk groups everywhere to ensure maximum global protection against old and new strains and to minimize as best as the vaccine can the risk of transmission”, says @GaviSeth.
@DrTedros@WHO@ProfAbdoolKarim@GaviSeth "Everybody's looking at the data right now”, says @Kate_L_OBrien of Astra Zeneca results. While there is evidence of reduced efficacy against 501Y.V2, "the retention of meaningful impact against severe disease is a very plausible scenario for the product."
@DrTedros@WHO@ProfAbdoolKarim@GaviSeth@Kate_L_OBrien SAGE met today to discuss AZ and guidance should come soon. “There was a very positive view about proceeding with the use of the vaccine including in settings where variants are circulating with a big emphasis on collecting information that would really help”, says @Kate_L_OBrien
@DrTedros@WHO@ProfAbdoolKarim@GaviSeth@Kate_L_OBrien In South Africa, “we anticipate that that initial start date of vaccinations will be largely unaffected or at most affected by a few days, but instead of rolling out AstraZeneca vaccine we'll be rolling out the Johnson and Johnson vaccine”, says @ProfAbdoolKarim.
@DrTedros@WHO@ProfAbdoolKarim South Africa is delaying rollout of AZ vaccine to think about options, says @ProfAbdoolKarim. "We don't want to end up with a situation where we vaccinated a million or 2 million people with a vaccine that may not be effective in preventing hospitalization and severe disease."
@DrTedros@WHO@ProfAbdoolKarim South Africa may go for a stepwise immunization campaign with AZ to collect some real-world data, says @ProfAbdoolKarim. “One proposal that's currently being considered is to roll it out initially, just in a state where the first step, includes about 100,000 individuals."
@DrTedros@WHO@ProfAbdoolKarim Several lessons to take from recent events, says @GaviSeth: "The first is that manufacturers must be prepared to adjust to #COVID19 viral evolution, including potentially providing future booster shots and or adaptive vaccines, if found to be scientifically necessary."
@DrTedros@WHO@ProfAbdoolKarim@GaviSeth "It's also clear that trials have to be designed and maintained to allow efficacy to be assessed over time, and to be of sufficient scale and diversity to enable clear interpretations of the results”, says @GaviSeth.
@DrTedros@WHO@ProfAbdoolKarim@GaviSeth "We know that we need much better global genomic surveillance and that has to be backed by rapid sharing of data to allow for the global coordination of response”, says @GaviSeth.
@DrTedros@WHO@ProfAbdoolKarim@GaviSeth “Priority needs to be given to vaccinating high risk groups everywhere to ensure maximum global protection against old and new strains and to minimize as best as the vaccine can the risk of transmission”, says @GaviSeth.
@DrTedros@WHO@ProfAbdoolKarim@GaviSeth "Everybody's looking at the data right now”, says @Kate_L_OBrien of Astra Zeneca results. While there is evidence of reduced efficacy against 501Y.V2, "the retention of meaningful impact against severe disease is a very plausible scenario for the product."
@DrTedros@WHO@ProfAbdoolKarim@GaviSeth@Kate_L_OBrien SAGE met today to discuss AZ and guidance should come soon. “There was a very positive view about proceeding with the use of the vaccine including in settings where variants are circulating with a big emphasis on collecting information that would really help”, says @Kate_L_OBrien
@DrTedros@WHO@ProfAbdoolKarim@GaviSeth@Kate_L_OBrien In South Africa, “we anticipate that that initial start date of vaccinations will be largely unaffected or at most affected by a few days, but instead of rolling out AstraZeneca vaccine we'll be rolling out the Johnson and Johnson vaccine”, says @ProfAbdoolKarim.
@DrTedros@WHO@ProfAbdoolKarim@GaviSeth@Kate_L_OBrien People should not conclude "that this vaccine doesn't work at all”, says @doctorsoumya of AstraZeneca. “What we've seen is data from a small study. It's indicative. It is telling us we need to collect more data, we need to study it more.”
@DrTedros@WHO@ProfAbdoolKarim@GaviSeth@Kate_L_OBrien@doctorsoumya Available evidence suggests AZ as well as other vaccines reduce hospitalization and severe disease, says @doctorsoumya. "And that's our goal for the first part of this pandemic, is to reduce mortality, to end all preventable deaths. And so we must continue to scale up vaccines."
@DrTedros@WHO@ProfAbdoolKarim@GaviSeth@Kate_L_OBrien@doctorsoumya “It's absolutely crucial to use the tools that we have as effectively as we possibly can”, says @DrRHatchett. “That may mean, ultimately, when vaccine supplies increase, thinking about deploying certain vaccines to certain geographies. We don't have that luxury yet."
Press conference on what @WHO-convened mission to investigate the origins of #SARSCoV2 found on their China trip is about to start in Wuhan.
(Was originally supposed to start an hour ago before being pushed back)
@WHO After a lengthy introduction of the mission and its terms of reference, Liang Wannian, who leads the Chinese team of the joint mission, says he will now begin to talk about the key findings, starting with molecular epidemiology.
After #b117 was identified in England and seemed to be taking off there, many people like me started looking at Denmark for clues.
Why Denmark? It sequences a lot! Here is a graph from @ECDC_EU from late December showing EU sequencing (look at B and note that it’s a log-scale):
@ECDC_EU Denmark has actually massively scaled-up its sequencing since then. @MadsAlbertsen85 and his team, who have basically been doing all the sequencing for the whole country, are now getting close to 70% which is about as much as is possible (30% have low virus concentrations).
COVAX facility just published a forecast of what country will receive how much of what #covid19 vaccine in the first half of this year.
Lots of caveats of course. This is mostly AZ vaccine, which does not have emergency use listing yet, for instance. gavi.org/sites/default/…
Big picture:
Countries can expect to receive vaccine to cover on average 3,3% of their population in first half of 2021, "enough to protect the most vulnerable groups such as health care workers”.
Here is “A” to give you an idea (SFP are self financing countries)
Most vaccine here is AstraZeneca’s:
240 million doses of AZ vaccine licensed to Serum Institute of India (SII)
96 million doses directly from AZ (this was supposed to be 153 million, but some shipments delayed to Q3)
„The development of the Sputnik V vaccine has been criticised for unseemly haste, corner cutting, and an absence of transparency. But the outcome reported here is clear and the scientific principle of vaccination is demonstrated ...“ thelancet.com/journals/lance…
Authors end that comment in Lancet by pointing that the result „means another vaccine can now join the fight to reduce the incidence of #COVID19“.
First results (yes, really!) on what #b117 + E484K might mean from @GuptaR_lab:
„Introduction of the E484K mutation in a B.1.1.7 background to reflect newly emerging viruses in the UK led to a more substantial loss of neutralizing activity by vaccine-elicited antibodies“
Quick explainer:
The researchers took blood from 23 people vaccinated with Pfizer vaccine and then checked how well it neutralized retroviruses that they had engineered to contain the spike protein of #b117 with or without E484K.
Preprint is here: citiid.cam.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
Interpretation:
This is roughly what I expected given B.1.351 and P.1 data.
If you‘ve followed my reporting the last weeks you know that it is difficult to know whether/how much a drop in neutralization in the lab will translate into a drop in vaccine efficacy in the real world.
And now for the bad news. *sigh*
It looks like #B117, the more transmissible variant first detected in England, has now picked up the E484K mutation as well. That is the one linked to evading SOME immunity in SAfrica and Brazil.
@_b_meyer "Preliminary information suggests more than one acquisition event.”
If this is true, it is one more sign that this mutation is a relatively easy way for the virus to acquire some advantage in populations with some immunity.
I worry that we will see this in many places with B117.
@_b_meyer And as @_b_meyer points out it may very well be that a mutation like N501Y makes it more likely for the virus to acquire this mutation because it almost “needs" it.
(Or as @K_G_Andersen would probably say: Maybe Nelly kinda seeks out the bad guys… )