New @elonmusk @joerogan interview premiering on YouTube now:
$TSLA #SpaceX
Here's "Shackleton's Ad" that Elon mentioned: Image
And here's a map of the expedition of his ship, the Endurance: Image
Elon's Roadster is currently less than 32M miles from Earth and closing: whereisroadster.com
Elon says 0-60 time is actually 1.96 seconds, so the 1.99 seconds on the website is sandbagged just a little bit.
tesla.com/models
Elon said if you floor the Plaid S when the light turns green, it could hit 60 mph *before exiting the intersection*.
"In the future, as the car becomes more autonomous, it's going to be about entertainment first and foremost, and productivity."
-ERM
"I think we do need to make sure that people from California who move to Austin do not inadvertently create the same issues they wanted to escape."
-ERM
"Austin's gonna be the biggest boomtown America's seen in 50 years."
-ERM
On Cybertruck:
"We'll have probably limited production at the end of this year and then volume production next year."
"Roadster will have enough range that you'll never have to worry about range. Let me put it that way."
Elon, joking: "5G causes Corona! *It's a fact*!" (laughing)
"People are worried that cell phones and towers and 5G cause cancer. This is not true. If I had a helmet made of cell phones around my head- and my nuts- I would not worry."
On FacebookAI:
"Even worse, they're going to feed all of everyone's data into their AI, FacebookAI, they have a public account, you can follow them... and see what happens. Could lead to a dystopian outcome."
"At the end of the day, somebody has to go to Facebook or Google or Tesla- Tesla has a lot of AI- and say "this is OK" or "this is not OK", and report back to the public, "this is what we found". Otherwise it's the inmates running the asylum."
"Our airbag technology is crazy good. In the case of Tesla, we go way beyond the legal requirements. Teslas are the safest cars ever. We get 5 stars in every category and subcategory and if there were 6 stars, we'd get that too."
"Can you imagine if $GM had just kept iterating? If they'd just gone EV1, EV2, EV3? They would've owned the world."
"To transition from a petroleum-based economy, we need a shit ton of batteries. A giga shit ton."
On his talks with the Biden Administration about a carbon tax:
"They thought it was too politically difficult, but I was like, 'it was at least half the reason you got elected: put a price on carbon. it's an obvious move'."
"Like I say, provided we are not complacent about reducing CO2 emissions, I think we'll be fine, unless there's some nonlinear event. You cannot change the chemical composition of the atmosphere and oceans and expect that nothing bad's gonna happen."
On affordable, efficient carbon sequestration technology:
"I'm funding a $100M carbon capture prize to answer that question. We don't actually know the answer, but there's nothing good that we're aware of currently."
"China has the most progressive environmental policies of any large economy on Earth. China is super pro environment- more than America."
On Model X Falcon Wing Doors:
"It was an exercise in hubris. To avoid having an ultrasonic puck, we developed the only ultrasonic sensor we know of that can hear through metal."
On Plaid X:
"It'll be like high 300's (range, in miles). It has a higher coefficient of drag and a larger cross-sectional area, so it's probably 10% less range than the (Plaid) Model S."
"In terms of CO2 per mile, (internal combustion engine) SUVs are the worst, so the best thing you can do is get those off the road."
"Eventually (EV semi trucks) will be autonomous, but I think in the short-term we'll see convoys." (where driverless trucks follow a lead truck with a human driver).
"I'm committed to run Tesla for several more years. There's a lot to get done."
$TSLA

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More from @ICannot_Enough

14 Feb
I have updated my Tesla forecast and charts. 🤓

For those who don't want to read the whole 69-tweet thread:
slides 1-3 summarize the headline numbers & metrics
slides 4-20 are a bunch of pretty $TSLA charts (don't miss them!)
slides 21-69 are my detailed forecast model

1 of 69 Image
I'm forecasting 178,254 deliveries in Q1 and almost 875K deliveries for 2021. That's 75% deliveries growth YOY.

Model S Plaid deliveries will be low in Q1, but ASP will be high. Most of 2021's growth will be Model Y.

I don't expect many Semi or Cybertruck deliveries.

2 of 69 Image
Plaid S & X, growing Model Y sales mix, and increasing sales of FSD should improve total Automotive gross margin and thus profitability.

I have pushed the deferred tax asset to Q4 but have low confidence that's when it will occur. I just have to forecast it somewhere.

3 of 69 Image
Read 65 tweets
10 Feb
OK, almost 2.5 years ago, I tweeted out a thread comparing $TSLA to $GM as investments based on their financial position and my evaluation of their prospects.

You can probably guess where I landed 🙃, but here's that old thread if you want to read it:
(updated charts to follow)
Since then, a few things have changed.

Somebody suggested that it would be more fair to use Long Term Debt than Total Debt for GM, so I made that change (shown here, updated through 2018 Actuals):
But a few years have happened since the end of 2018, so why not update the chart?

Are you ready?

You are *not* ready. 😂🤣

Without changing the original chart's scale, here it is updated through 2020:
Read 7 tweets
3 Jan
I have updated my $TSLA forecast with the reported Q4 deliveries.

Q4 looks like a ~$2.3B GAAP profit to me, including an unusual ~$1.6B benefit (deferred tax asset from prior years' losses) that will surprise many.

Adj. EBITDA is highlighted below for better comparability.
Total revenue per delivery should be down slightly, mostly due to sales mix (more 3/Y, less S/X). Automotive Revenue will break the previous quarterly record easily.
Total revenue should exceed $10B for the first time.

I have Total gross margin at 22.3%, not to be confused with Automotive gross margin of 26.0% with regulatory credits or 24.3% without.

The DTA benefit appears on the Provision/(Benefit) for Income Taxes line.
Read 13 tweets
3 Jan
With 2020 now in the rear view mirror, I thought it might be fun to post some 2020 $TSLA hater predictions gone wrong.

Matthew Battle:
🥴 “75,000 or less Model 3s in 2019 and even less in 2020.”

I’ll reply with a few more below and you can play along by adding your own.
@zekeboy4:
“Don’t think Tesla will be able to produce 300K cars/yr for the next 3 years”
Thomas Smith:
“No real earnings until after the BK process is resolved and new equity owners are brought on”.
Read 16 tweets
1 Nov 20
Here is my latest $TSLA forecast thread. Many numbers for those who like numbers & many charts for those who like charts.

Where does Tesla have left to go, after breaking all the records in Q3 2020?? They're just going to keep setting higher records. 🔌🔋⚡️🚗🚀📈
After Elon's stock-based compensation expense hit a record high in Q3, I saw some people worry that the expense will just keep rising every quarter. Fear not, $TSLA owner: that non-cash expense a) isn't real and b) has probably peaked (see 4th slide).
These charts are just different ways of showing Tesla's revenue growth and improving cost efficiencies which together lead to increasing profitability.
Read 19 tweets
25 Oct 20
I tweet a lot of charts showing how $TSLA has grown delivery volume and revenue dollars exponentially over the years, but here's a different way of slicing the data completely:

How does Tesla's average dollar of revenue break down by source? How does that change over time?
As you can see, Leasing, Energy, and Services & Other have had a hard time keeping up with the explosive growth in Automotive Sales and thus Regulatory Credit sales.

You may now be wondering how Tesla *spends* its average dollar of revenue. I was wondering the same thing...
When Tesla spent more than the whole dollar, it posted Non-GAAP losses; when it spent less than the whole dollar, it posed Non-GAAP profits.

Revenue growth levers against fixed costs.
Read 4 tweets

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