@LindenJohan @kenoshaking Right now, how do we get to green tech? Government subsidies because it is expensive and underdeveloped.

Bitcoin mining is EXTREMELY competitive. You a 1 cent per kWh more expensive than the other guy, you are going out of business. It is cutthroat

1/
@LindenJohan @kenoshaking Now where is the cheapest energy?

Green
Stranded (unuseable)
Wasted (overbuilt hydro, gas flaring etc)

The best miners will setup + innovate on the above. They create a DIRECT non gov subsidised incentive to setup green, wasted or stranded energy capture and price out fossil
2/
@LindenJohan @kenoshaking What most critics fail to do is consider the problem beyond 'it uses lots of energy'.

Human have NO SHORTAGE of energy. We simply lack storage and TRANSPORT capacity over long distances.

Lots of energy, cant move it.

So we build energy near populations (consumers)
3/
@LindenJohan @kenoshaking Well Bitcoin will happily setup in Iceland over a geothermal vent with no energy transport needed except an internet connection.

Or next to a chinese hydro dam that was OVERBUILT and wastes the energy anyway.

or capture methane from oil fields that is vented or flared anyway
4/
@LindenJohan @kenoshaking The reality is, Bitcoin is the greatest, best and most reliable demand source for energy we have. A constant baseload that will naturally price out fossil fuels and incentivise the creation, research and build out of renewable and green tech.

Completely changes everything.
fin.
@LindenJohan @kenoshaking I should add, the importance of this being a free market and not government lead initiative is why it is so important.

Bitcoin forces the private sector to take green tech seriously, makes non viable projects viable and does so without government fuckery and inefficiency

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More from @_Checkmatey_

3 Mar
The #Bitcoin Taproot🌱Activation debate is fascinating to see it play out. Given it is quite a complex topic (Bitcoin governance), let me lay out how I see it and my perspective.

I may have elements wrong but this is my current and best understanding.

Thread👇
Premise:

The Taproot soft fork implements Schnorr signatures and additional output scripts that enhance privacy and functionality, especially for lightning and multi-sig setups.

Overall, the code is widely regarded as uncontentious, well constructed, reviewed and high quality.
Activation:

Code is fine, but how do you activate in a PoW rough consensus?

The goal is to have the whole network running compatible code, miners in particular, to avoid any chain-split potential.

Four key groups:
- Miners
- Core devs
- Economic Nodes (exchanges etc)
- Users
Read 10 tweets
9 Oct 20
0/ It has been a hot minute since I let loose my thoughts on #Decred. Combination of taking a break from CT and life throwing lemons.

Enjoyed watching community and stakeholders engage and keep up the discussion

But an on-chain tweet-storm is long overdue!

Seeking Conviction👇
1/ Start with the big picture.

DCR/BTC price has been absolute carnage...

..but we have been here before.

You see Decred is primed to become an oscillator, outperforming BTC in bull markets and underperforming in bears.

The stakeholder block subsidy line is at fractal phase 0
2/ When looking for stakeholder conviction, I use the 142-day metrics. These sample the entire ticket pool and looks as far back as late May.

The Strongest Hand metric.

This shows conviction as measured by DCR volume into tickets.

It oscillates between conviction + uncertainty
Read 9 tweets
24 Aug 20
1/ Very pleased to release my next research paper, focusing on the Mining Market Mechanics for #Decred

This was a fascinating study looking at the history, distribution behaviour and performance of the networks largest compulsory seller

Summary thread👇

medium.com/@_Checkmatey_/…
2/ Decred launched into a developed 2016 GPU mining industry where it was dual mined by Ethereum miners.

A study following PoW mined coins supports anecdotal evidence that GPU miners dumped en mass 80% of their DCR.

Chart shows % of DCR income sold (solid) or hodled (dashed)
3/ Conversely, ASIC miners have invested around 25-30% into tickets. This trend has stabilised (yellow lines) showing that Decred miners have serious skin in the game.

That said, profitability has been challenging to obtain and as the next tweets show, few managed to break even.
Read 13 tweets
7 Apr 20
Time for a #Decred On-chain Update!

There are so many bottom formation + undervaluation fractals at play for #Decred.

This thread covers some of the highest conviction on-chain metrics and the impressive alignment of direction.

Generational confluence on-chain.

Strap in 👇 1/
Miners: As covered in my last research paper, PoW $DCR miners have endured challenging conditions.

With unforgeable costs, PoW miners are known to 'Put the Bottom in'.

The cumulative PoW reward paid (USD) has entered a generational low fractal alongside difficulty squeeze.
2/
The Puell Multiple measures the current USD PoW income against the yearly rolling average.

Miners are long term thinkers and when incomes are challenged, the weak switch off their mining rigs and the reward coins are distributed to the strong.

This constrains supply.

3/
Read 9 tweets
17 Dec 19
1/ An overview of where I see the #Bitcoin market right now. I prefer to use simple yet robust probabilistic methods.

Four Moving Averages have continued to show relevance to #Bitcoin over it's trading history.

#Bitcoins Magic Lines
- 128DMA
- 200DMA
- 128WMA
- 200WMA
2/ Magic Lines
128D MA is a classic Buy the Dip / Sell the Rally.

200D MA is a Strong BUY/SELL unless crossed, then bias must flip. Right now, this is bearish.

128W MA is accumulation signal when below, similar to the Realised Price.

200W MA catches the bottom wicks of bears.
3/ Based on this, our bias is bearish (under 128D and 200DMA).

However, price has just dipped below the 128WMA signalling accumulation.

Fundamental support is below in the Realised Price ($5600) and 200WMA ($5000), what's $1000 between mates.

Smart money is waiting down here.
Read 6 tweets
15 Oct 19
1/I am extremely pleased to present the first of a three part series on critically reviewing the stock-to-flow model for #Decred and #Bitcoin.

In this paper I undertake numerous regression analyses to validate inputs and compare performance age-for-age.

medium.com/@_Checkmatey_/…
2/ I establish fundamental reasons why I have studied #Decred further as a contractor as well as explain the similarities and differences between monetary policies.

I conclude that in the realm of digital, immutable, sound money, both #Bitcoin and #Decred are best in class.
3/ Undertaking regression analyses for $DCR, $BTC and $LTC over multiple timescales, I present stock-to-flow models for all three assets.

#Bitcoin continues to impress, R2 = 0.90
#Bitcoin at age 3.67 has R2 = 0.66
#Decred at age 3.67 has R2 = 0.70
#Litecoin no valid fit R2<0.5
Read 6 tweets

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