Thread by @_Checkmatey_

1/ An overview of where I see the #Bitcoin market right now. I prefer to use simple yet robust probabilistic methods.

Four Moving Averages have continued to show relevance to #Bitcoin over it's trading history.

#Bitcoins Magic Lines
- 128DMA
- 200DMA
- 128WMA
- 200WMA

2/ Magic Lines
128D MA is a classic Buy the Dip / Sell the Rally.

200D MA is a Strong BUY/SELL unless crossed, then bias must flip. Right now, this is bearish.

128W MA is accumulation signal when below, similar to the Realised Price.

200W MA catches the bottom wicks of bears.

3/ Based on this, our bias is bearish (under 128D and 200DMA).

However, price has just dipped below the 128WMA signalling accumulation.

Fundamental support is below in the Realised Price ($5600) and 200WMA ($5000), what's $1000 between mates.

Smart money is waiting down here.

4/ We can also check the fair value models:

200DMA --> The Mayer Multiple
S2F Model --> Stock-to-Flow Multiple
Difficulty --> Difficulty Multiple

If we analyse the histogram frequency, we can see price is down in the 20-30% range. Only 20-30% of price history deviates this low.

5/ Price is now in value zone. Our signals are:

Bearish:
- Below 128D and 200DMA
- Chart TA looks like ass

Accumulation:
- Below the 128WMA
- Support in Realised + 200WMA $1000 below

Probability of price remaining this sold based on Mayer, S2F and Difficulty...20%.

#Stacking

6/ This Sunday, I will be rolling out the @readysetcrypto Bitcoin Onchain Masterclass.

This will be Episode 5 and will cover the immensely powerful combination of
- Magic lines
- Mayer multiple
- S2F Multiple
- Difficulty Multiple.

Time to be announced, stay tuned!