, 6 tweets, 5 min read
1/I am extremely pleased to present the first of a three part series on critically reviewing the stock-to-flow model for #Decred and #Bitcoin.

In this paper I undertake numerous regression analyses to validate inputs and compare performance age-for-age.

2/ I establish fundamental reasons why I have studied #Decred further as a contractor as well as explain the similarities and differences between monetary policies.

I conclude that in the realm of digital, immutable, sound money, both #Bitcoin and #Decred are best in class.
3/ Undertaking regression analyses for $DCR, $BTC and $LTC over multiple timescales, I present stock-to-flow models for all three assets.

#Bitcoin continues to impress, R2 = 0.90
#Bitcoin at age 3.67 has R2 = 0.66
#Decred at age 3.67 has R2 = 0.70
#Litecoin no valid fit R2<0.5
4/ Finally I present deviation of #Bitcoin and #Decred market value from the power law model mean to establish periods of over and under valuation.

Generally speaking, +-1.5 std is historically opportune accumulation period.

$BTC was there at $3,000.
$DCR is there now at $16.
5/ I welcome all comments and feedback and hope to have valuable discussions on opportunities for further work.

Models and data are available for inspection + verification and all assumptions and data sources are noted.

Huge shout out to @coinmetrics data, best in the biz
@coinmetrics 6/ This paper follows on from my original analysis looking at a screening tool for assessing crypto-asset monetary premiums.

The outcome of this study is what inspired me to delve deeper down the #Decred rabbit hole and I see no reason to climb out.

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