Thread by @douglewinenergy

A thread on the #ERCOT situation below but most importantly, if you're in TX, if you can, reduce usage today between 4-10 and again tomorrow between 5-9am.

More below on what's happening now, what's driving this kind of event and what needs to be done.

#energytwitter #txlege

Every 6 months, ERCOT creates the SARA, seasonal assessment of resource adequacy. Their forecast was 24% lower than what will likely be peak demand today. They also had an extreme weather forecast. That was somehwere around 10% lower than what we're likley to see tomorrow.

Winter peak demand forecast was 57,699. Current day forecast is ~71,000MW and tomorrow around 75,000MW. Their extreme peak load forecast was for 67,208MW, obviously undershooting by a lot.
ercot.com/news/releases/…

I don't say this to criticize ERCOT. It's a well run, professional organization. They're very good at what they do. But they, like all of us, have not yet internatlized what #climatechange means. You can't use an average of past years to forecast anymore. It won't work!

Like flooding in Houston and all along the Gulf Coast, "once in a century" + "1 in 500 year" events, will happen every few years now. Harvey in 2017. Massive heat wave in 2019. Another polar vortex in 2021. The extreme events will be regular occurences now, no longer exceptional.

I recall folks like @KHayhoe and @AndrewDessler many years ago talking about "global weirding" because #climatechange destabilizes. Avg temperatures are higher (already by 2degreesF) but anomalies abound. Weeks before this happened @jswatz wrote about it nytimes.com/2021/01/30/cli…

We have to begin planning for this. Adaptation will be difficult, extremely difficult, but things will be worse if we can't deal realistically with what's happening. We have altered the planet's system beyond anything for which there is a historical analogue. Uncharted waters.

We need #climateadaptation plans for lots of things (ag, flooding, diseases and health, etc.), including the grid. Every energy source struggles during extreme cold. Much has been written about wind and solar but gas and coal plants struggle, too.

In 2011: "the state's coal and gas appeared to be the cause" texastribune.org/2011/02/03/the…

In 2014: "Coal and natural gas power plants were more likely to fail during the cold snap that hit Texas on Jan. 6"
bizjournals.com/dallas/blog/20…

And this year, colder than either of those years: "Gas processing plants across TX are shutting as liquids freeze inside pipes, disrupting ouput"

Climate change will make these extreme events progressively worse over time.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

State leaders need to acknowledge the reality of climate change. As @cltomlinson said in his column the other day "No serious person denies climate change anymore." Like the Boy Scouts, we need to be prepared. The planning should have begun years ago, but it didn't.

In 2009, a climate adaptation bill passed the Texas House Cmte on Environment Regs 8-0 with R and D suport. It directed 14 agencies to produce climate adaptation plans. It didn't go further than committee. Leaders like @RafaelAnchia and @Johnson4Dallas filed similar bills later.

Like the old adage about planting trees, the best time to plant (or plan) was 20 years ago, the next best time is now. We need to get serious about this in Texas. Climate change is not ONLY about future generations. It's about us. We are experiencing it NOW. Literally, right now.

Let's conserve, and get through this together and then let's plan, prepare, and adapt. Had those adaptation bills passed, would we have been more ready for Harvey? For the '19 heat wave in which people died for lack of cooling? For this current sustained Arctic blast? Probably.

We will not be as prepared as we could be for future events if we don't understand how much worse those events could be. ERCOT missed its forecast at least partially because it doesn't take into account the extremes from climate change. They're not alone.

No state agency plans for #climatechange bc too many of our state leaders don't "believe" it as if it's the tooth fairy or something. Extreme weather doesn't care if you believe in it or not. It's time to get real, Texas. Climate change is here and now. It's as real as it gets.

A lack of preparedness has real consequences. #ClimateChange is here and it's going to get worse. People are suffering and many more will suffer if we don't acknowledge its reality, rely on scientists for facts, and prepare. Let's be better prepared next time. #ClimateAction