That's the thing though. @DavidGHFrost appointment isn't about bringing UK-EU closer together (politically or economically). His appointment is about making TCA work & be point person when it doesn't. Which is why it makes sense. Thread.
1. Kind of relief to Brussels: Frost has a reputation for being firm ("all abt sovereignty") but he does understand EU policy-making more or less. Was Brexit negotiator & worked in UK representation to EU in 90s. Understanding how EU negotiates is important to make TCA work.
2. This was never going to be honeymoon phase: UK will still ask for things it can't get, and UK and EU likely to grow apart, but at least EU won't have to go through whole charade of explaining how EU works, why market integrity is so important, etc. Straight down to business.
3. EU coordination: UK showing EU "dossier" isn't over and having a designated minister shows the importance of EU for UK both in economic & strategic terms. Also likely to make Whitehall EU coordination bit easier (see @ThimontJack & @jillongovt recent paper on this).
4. It's good for scrutiny: much easier for Parliament to call on Frost to explain state of UK-EU relationship & interactions with UK's other economic/political relationships.
5. *But* it's no longer a negotiation: so Frost will need good personal relations with EU institutions & member states. Many member states know Frost by name, but not personally. This must change if UK is serious about a new (and less combative) relationship with EU. END.
6. And why I don't think another Cabinet appointment wd have made much of a difference to UK approach:
There are several important elements to disentangle here. And imo, biggest long-term problem for City is not EU's onshoring of EU trade but UK's loss of influence over EU banking regulation. Short thread
1. Onshoring not surprising: as soon as it was clear UK banks wouldn't retain passporting, banks started to plan. They started to move some activity/personnel to EU. EU not granting UK equivalence decision also not helping.
2) Power of regulation: story here isn't really abt economic damage to City/UK in short-term (that's still tbd) or damage to City "brand". What *is* noteworthy is that EU regulation can and does impact the way banks (even those not in EU) operate. This has long-term implications.
Extending the transition period is a lovely idea - in theory. But in practice, it's a total minefield and not clear it can be done in time. Why? Thread.
1. Several ways to buy more time for talks:
(i) Extend transition period (TP) before July 2020: missed that deadline
(ii) Extend TP by amending withdrawal agreement (WA): legally v complicated for EU
(iii) Create a brand new TP: politically v complicated
2. Different beasts: transition period (TP) ≠ art 50 talks. EU uses a legal basis for every treaty it strikes. For withdrawal agreement (& TP), it used article 50. Problem is: art 50 designed for a member state *that is on its way out* - *not* one that has already left.
1. Several ways to buy more time for talks:
(i) Extend transition period (TP) before July 2020: missed that deadline
(ii) Extend TP by amending withdrawal agreement (WA): legally v complicated for EU
(iii) Create a brand new TP: politically v complicated
1. Different beasts: transition period (TP) ≠ art 50 talks. EU uses a legal basis for every treaty it strikes. For withdrawal agreement (& TP), it used article 50. Problem is: art 50 designed for a member state *that is on its way out* - *not* one that has already left.
So.. I've been thinking a lot about this. Possible but wd be unprecedented for 2 reasons: 1) First time (to my knowledge) that an EU-only deal wd require provisional application (PA) 2) First time (to my knowledge) Council wd authorise PA before EU Parliament has voted.
1. Cd a UK-EU FTA be provisionally applied if EU cannot complete ratification by the end of the year? Yes. Article 25 of the Vienna Convention of the Law of Treaties (VCLT) allows for it. As @StevePeers notes, political declaration also mentions it.
2. But PA wd not be straightforward for 3 reasons:
a. Timing: Can only happen after legal scrubbing & translation
b. Legal call: EU only vs. “mixed agreement”
c. EU Parliament ratification
Lots of talk (& confusion) today about EU ratification & #Brexit. All you need to know in this short thread.
1. Should you care about EU ratification? Yes. Brexit talks ongoing – but they're only part of the challenge. UK & EU also need time to vote & get ready for change.
2. Who in EU votes on UK-EU FTA? Depends on content of the deal. If:
(i) “EU-only” (areas of EU law only): then approval is needed at EU level (Council & EU Parliament)
(ii) “mixed agreement” (areas of EU & member-state law, like aviation): then approval at EU level *and* in MS
How will #EU react to Cumming’s departure? My hunch: status quo & caution. Short thread:
1. Status quo: Cumming’s departure won’t suddenly lead to a softening of EU state aid position in favour of the UK’s. EU wants a state aid compromise that stands the test of time - not just now but in 5/10 years time. Tonight’s development do not change that.
2. Caution: Cumming’s departure only matters if it gives PM more room for manoeuvre to find a Brexit compromise. But PM makes that call & there is no guarantee of that yet. END.