Thread by @Dr_D_Robertson

On the face of it, this does seem to be more weighted to dates rather than data.

It will be interesting to see if *any* quantitative thresholds for cases, hospitalizations, or pressure on hospitals are set out on Monday, or whether the only thing that are set are dates.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1363618230598852609

It is obviously a risk, I'd reports are correct, to send all school children back on the same date. One critical thing missing is the ability to adapt. If R exceeds 1 and hospitalizations increase as a result of this, all that can be done is to close face to face...

schooling with the effect this will have on children's continuity of education. It would be prudent to send *some* children back and see the effect before committing all children.

Remember, it is not just the interactions between children (which *could* be mitigated...

e.g. by introducing new measures e.g. ventilation requirements as a result of increased transmissibility and severity of the Kent variant), it is also the increased interactions between parents and carers.

While many vulnerable grandparents may have been vaccinated ...

the newly-categorised shielding group will only have recently has their vaccinations when schools reopen.

The critical thing is that a reopening plan can *adapt* to new data. It will be interesting to see how this is planned for in the reopening policy...

If reopening cannot be reversed if new data is forthcoming, we may yet see a fourth lockdown.

There are encouraging signs on case numbers, vaccinations, and hospitalizations. It is critical that optimism bias does not cloud prudent policy setting.