The Government's roadmap for reopening has been published.

I will add commentary as I read through.

From first glance, there are no numbers for thresholds, which does in some way question the notion of 'data not dates'.

There are however a lot of dates in the document.
The roadmap itself is only 15 pages long.
It sets out 'principles'
- whole of England rather than regional response
- "led by data not dates" (see above)
- five weeks between steps - 'no earlier than'
- face-to-face education a priority
Now we move on to 'the four tests'.

In order to make these rigourous, they would be accompanied by thresholds. Some vague words here. And they are 'currently being met' (see this thread )
One page of the 15-pages of roadmap is taken up with repeating the four tests, except with pictures.
And... that's it for the tests. That's all we have - no numbers so the tests are vague and will or will not be met based on a political judgment.

So - no indication of how the data will determine whether the tests are *actually* met. It's very vague.
We move from the one paragraph and one picture setting out 'the tests' to 62 paragraphs setting out when relaxation will take place (with the caveat 'no earlier than')
Step 1 has two dates. What is interesting is that the decision to implement the rule of 6 or two households mixing *has been made now* and is not subject to revision. This is risky, as data from schools opening will be starting to be known and the 29 March changes are 'locked in'
The justification for this is that schools will close for Easter (so the risk from school transmission is replaced by the risk from outdoor mixing
Indoor transmission is emphasized (this is the justification for mixing *outdoors*).

This begs the question of what mitigation measures are being made in schools where mixing takes place indoors.
Here are the pictures for Step 2 with the 'no earlier than' date
And Step 3
And Step 4
There is *no* mention in the roadmap of the Joint Biosecurity Centre (apart from future planning) - this was the organization that was tasked with analysis.

So - with this 'data driven' roadmap - who is deciding whether the four tests have been met? Is it entirely political?
So - there are no thresholds set on whether the tests are met. There are a list of dates.
In summary, the roadmap can be considered "dates not data" with no objective measure of whether the four tests will be met.

The tests set out in the roadmap are subjective and political, not objective and scientific.

Here is the full document.…
Here is my @LBC interview this morning with @ianpaynesport discussing the Roadmap
- Dates not data
- Lack of role for Joint Biosecurity Centre
- SAGE show resurgence over summer increased hospitalizations & deaths
- Hospitalizations not case numbers or R

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More from @Dr_D_Robertson

24 Feb
Public Health England @PHE_uk have published a report on prevalence of Covid in the university student population.

A very short thread.

Publication here:…
They find that fewer than 1 in 5 students (17.8%) had antibodies at the end of the Autumn term (which imples that more than 80% were susceptible to Covid).

"SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in 2,905 university students was 17.8% (95%CI, 16.5-19.3) ..."
"... ranging between 7.6%-29.7% across the five universities" (the universities are not named - 'University A' to 'University E')
Read 6 tweets
22 Feb
Today the Prime Minister will announce the roadmap out of lockdown. A short thread.
First of all, a reprise of previous attempts at coming out of lockdown. They haven't gone well.

So, what is the plan for release of lockdown this time? At the moment, this is what we have to go on.

We are told this is "cautious"…
Read 13 tweets
21 Feb
On the face of it, this does seem to be more weighted to dates rather than data.

It will be interesting to see if *any* quantitative thresholds for cases, hospitalizations, or pressure on hospitals are set out on Monday, or whether the only thing that are set are dates.
It is obviously a risk, I'd reports are correct, to send all school children back on the same date. One critical thing missing is the ability to adapt. If R exceeds 1 and hospitalizations increase as a result of this, all that can be done is to close face to face...
schooling with the effect this will have on children's continuity of education. It would be prudent to send *some* children back and see the effect before committing all children.

Remember, it is not just the interactions between children (which *could* be mitigated...
Read 6 tweets
18 Feb
Here are my heatmaps for cases, positivity, hospitalizations, and ICU admissions. This covers the period to 14 February 2021.

With commentary on a possible Covid vaccine effect in hospitalizations for 75-84 year olds. ImageImageImageImage

Falling in all age groups. Falling fastest in 70+. Possible vaccine effect, but uncertain due to different testing regimes used.

Detected case rates over 100 per 100,000 in working age adults and over 80s. Image
Here is the monochrome version of the chart above. Image
Read 10 tweets
12 Feb
Are we starting to see a clear vaccine effect in detected cases and hospitalizations?

In short, not yet.

A short thread.
Hopitalizations falling 46-49% in adult age groups over the last 5 weeks.
Detected cases falling 68-73% in adult age groups over the last 5 weeks.
Read 10 tweets
11 Feb
Here are the latest heatmaps for cases, positivity, hospitalizations, and ICU admissions. This covers the period to 7 February 2021.

All are very high, but thankfully all are decreasing due to Lockdown 3.

Decreasing in all age groups, still very high.

Decreasing in all age groups. Decreasing slowest in children.

Note that increased use of lateral flow device testing may make comparisons more difficult.
Read 9 tweets

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