Public Health England @PHE_uk have published a report on prevalence of Covid in the university student population.

A very short thread.

Publication here:
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
They find that fewer than 1 in 5 students (17.8%) had antibodies at the end of the Autumn term (which imples that more than 80% were susceptible to Covid).

"SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in 2,905 university students was 17.8% (95%CI, 16.5-19.3) ..."
"... ranging between 7.6%-29.7% across the five universities" (the universities are not named - 'University A' to 'University E')
"Seropositivity was associated with being younger likely to represent first year undergraduates (aOR 3.2, 95% CI 2.0-4.9), living in halls of residence (aOR 2.1, 95% CI 1.7-2.7) and sharing a kitchen with an increasing number of students ...
"(shared with 4-7 individuals, aOR 1.43, 95%CI 1.12-1.82; shared with 8 or more individuals, aOR 1.53, 95% CI 1.04-2.24). Seropositivity was 49% in students living in halls of residence that reported high SARS-CoV-2 infection rates (>8%) during the autumn term.
This highlights that nearly half of students living in halls of residence had Covid antibodies.

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More from @Dr_D_Robertson

22 Feb
The Government's roadmap for reopening has been published.

I will add commentary as I read through.

From first glance, there are no numbers for thresholds, which does in some way question the notion of 'data not dates'.

There are however a lot of dates in the document.
The roadmap itself is only 15 pages long.
It sets out 'principles'
- whole of England rather than regional response
- "led by data not dates" (see above)
- five weeks between steps - 'no earlier than'
- face-to-face education a priority
Read 17 tweets
22 Feb
Today the Prime Minister will announce the roadmap out of lockdown. A short thread.
First of all, a reprise of previous attempts at coming out of lockdown. They haven't gone well.

So, what is the plan for release of lockdown this time? At the moment, this is what we have to go on.

We are told this is "cautious"
gov.uk/government/new…
Read 13 tweets
21 Feb
On the face of it, this does seem to be more weighted to dates rather than data.

It will be interesting to see if *any* quantitative thresholds for cases, hospitalizations, or pressure on hospitals are set out on Monday, or whether the only thing that are set are dates.
It is obviously a risk, I'd reports are correct, to send all school children back on the same date. One critical thing missing is the ability to adapt. If R exceeds 1 and hospitalizations increase as a result of this, all that can be done is to close face to face...
schooling with the effect this will have on children's continuity of education. It would be prudent to send *some* children back and see the effect before committing all children.

Remember, it is not just the interactions between children (which *could* be mitigated...
Read 6 tweets
18 Feb
Here are my heatmaps for cases, positivity, hospitalizations, and ICU admissions. This covers the period to 14 February 2021.

With commentary on a possible Covid vaccine effect in hospitalizations for 75-84 year olds. ImageImageImageImage
DETECTED CASES

Falling in all age groups. Falling fastest in 70+. Possible vaccine effect, but uncertain due to different testing regimes used.

Detected case rates over 100 per 100,000 in working age adults and over 80s. Image
Here is the monochrome version of the chart above. Image
Read 10 tweets
12 Feb
Are we starting to see a clear vaccine effect in detected cases and hospitalizations?

In short, not yet.

A short thread.
Hopitalizations falling 46-49% in adult age groups over the last 5 weeks.
Detected cases falling 68-73% in adult age groups over the last 5 weeks.
Read 10 tweets
11 Feb
Here are the latest heatmaps for cases, positivity, hospitalizations, and ICU admissions. This covers the period to 7 February 2021.

All are very high, but thankfully all are decreasing due to Lockdown 3.
DETECTED CASES

Decreasing in all age groups, still very high.
POSITIVITY

Decreasing in all age groups. Decreasing slowest in children.

Note that increased use of lateral flow device testing may make comparisons more difficult.
Read 9 tweets

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