Today we commemorate half a million US deaths from #COVID19 - a staggering and heartbreaking figure. Millions are mourning. The only positive is that it is increasingly clear that this year will be better. A thread on #COVID19 mortality evidence:
In October we published an analysis showing that death rates among hospitalized #COVID19 patients had dropped precipitously at @nyulangone even after accounting for changes in patient mix. @jhospmedicine journalofhospitalmedicine.com/jhospmed/artic…
Since then, there has been lots of corroborating evidence. This @JAMAInternalMed paper showed that mortality rates at nearly all of 398 US hospitals improved by at least 25% in the first few months of the pandemic (28k hospitalizations) ja.ma/2MdJrTm @rm_werner
We subsequently showed similarly large decreases in mortality rates across the whole of England (102k hospitalizations!) from May-July after accounting for patient characteristics, this time including post-discharge mortality too. journalofhospitalmedicine.com/jhospmed/artic… @qualitymetrics
On the other hand, here we see mortality rates rising over time in Brazil as it became crushed by volume, straining the hospital system @LancetRespirMed @otavio_ranzani thelancet.com/journals/lanre…
Here in the US, though, hospitalizations are plummeting. This means less hospital strain, and better outcomes. Plus, our early focus on vaccinating those at highest risk (nursing home residents) is paying off. Look how their share of deaths is dropping.
As vaccination spreads more widely, and people keep up social distancing and mask wearing in the meantime, I have every hope we will continue to see a decline in deaths. We will always mourn those we have lost. I hope and pray that in the coming year we will lose fewer & fewer.

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More from @leorahorwitzmd

24 Feb
There is no perfect vaccination prioritization strategy, and every choice leaves out people who would really benefit from vaccine. That said, I think @GovNedLamont's new age-based strategy in CT is very sensible if primary goal is to reduce hospitalizations and deaths ASAP. /1
Context: CT has already prioritized those in congregate settings (nursing homes, corrections, group homes, homeless shelters) and those 65+. Now, plan is to go by age in ~3 wk intervals (55-65, 45-54, 35-44, 18-34), last group starts May 3. Teachers now. portal.ct.gov/Coronavirus/CO…
But, don't chronic conditions increase risk from #COVID19? Yes. (In fact, my group was among first to prove it.) So why not prioritize people with them? 1) Because age is an even bigger risk. A young person with comorbidities is still lower risk than an older one without. /3
Read 12 tweets
17 Feb
So proud of this work led by @vincentjmajor & Erwin Wang w/@NicoleAdlerMD @hauck_kevin @AustrianMd
@yindalon @nyulangone in @nejmcatalyst. This is how to do thoughtful, collaborative integration of #AI into clinical care to create a learning health system catalyst.nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
At baseline, only 16% of our patients hospitalized within 6 months of death had documentation of advanced care planning. @vincentjmajor & clin colleagues developed 3 predictive models for 2 month mortality, set appropriate threshold (75% PPV), and integrated into the EHR. Image
The alert was shown a max of twice, only to attending physicians. 71% agreed with the alert: 72% of those patients had advanced care planning, vs 34% of those where docs disagreed, so overall 66% of alerted patients had ACP performed. How does that compare to others? Next... Image
Read 6 tweets
6 Dec 20
Our new paper in @JAMANetworkOpen shows no disparity in adjusted outcomes between Black/Hispanic/White #COVID19 patients @nyulangone once hospitalized; if anything, Blacks seem to do a little better. Is this an anomaly? @gbengaogedegbe ja.ma/3n1NKhC /Thread
Actually, several other papers have now found the same. This study of 11,210 hospitalized patients at 92 @ascensionorg hospitals found no sig difference in mortality between Blacks & Whites @BYehia jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…
This @cdcgov study of 2,491 hospitalized patients at 154 hospitals across the US confirms the findings academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar…
Read 11 tweets
2 Dec 20
Yesterday the world lost a shining light, much too soon. @marjoriesue’s life was marked by tragedy – widowed early with two young children, then metastatic cancer – but she radiated joy and empathy and was an astonishingly gifted writer. In memoriam, some of my favorite pieces:
Margi was a pediatrician, writer, friend, researcher and community activist, but also a single mom who raised two extraordinary young women. Here, she wrote nicer words about other people's mothers (including mine @renalis) than I have ever said to my own:
wbur.org/cognoscenti/20…
On dating while on chemo
nytimes.com/2020/09/04/sty…
Read 16 tweets
29 Sep 20
My periodic reminder that WE ARE NOT GOING TO SOLVE #COVID19 THROUGH NON-VACCINE HERD IMMUNITY. For those who need more convincing, thread follows.
First, we have NEVER gotten to herd immunity without vaccine for a virus. If you are over 40, you almost certainly had chicken pox as a kid. Until vaccine in 1995, we had >4 million cases/year (& ~125 deaths) - about the same as how many kids are born each year.
In other words, EVERY NON-IMMUNE PERSON (i.e. every kid) STILL GOT IT, even though antibody rates among adults were 90-95%, and immunity is near lifelong. With circulating virus and no vaccine, most without immunity will eventually catch it even if the pop is largely immune.
Read 10 tweets
19 Aug 20
*Caution non-peer reviewed preprint* There have been many anecdotes about prolonged #COVID19 symptoms but little systematic data collection. Here, results from prospective study of 152 patients @nyulangone hospitalized with #COVID19. /1 medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
tl;dr results: 113/152 (74%) reported persistent shortness of breath 30-40 days after discharge. 13.5% still needed oxygen. Overall physical health was rated 44/100 after vs 54 before - full standard deviation drop vs national norms. Mental health score dropped from 54 to 47.
Details: We enrolled 152 (38% of eligible) patients; all had lab confirmed #COVID19 & needed at least 6L oxygen during hospitalization; each completed the PROMIS 10 global health questionnaire and the PROMIS dyspnea scale, answering for current and pre-COVID state. ImageImage
Read 9 tweets

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