Thread by @annasergi

A THREAD: Why such massive #cocaine shipments and large port #seizures in Europe? This drug trade in pandemic has had a particular trajectory.
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1/ the pandemic moved different from east to west north to south

2/ by looking at ports and trade from Latin America to major European ports I had found that container shipments did not always reduce but often routes were modified to serve ports differently (more stops regionally; longer trips) researchgate.net/publication/34…

3/ as the pandemic affected Europe and North America ahead of Latin American countries, producers produced and traffickers tried to traffic as much as they could to build #cocaine reserves. This is why we had huge seizures in April/June last year. So that they wouldn’t run out.

4/ as routes kept changing, disruptions kept happening and the pandemic arrived heavily in Latin America old and new actors in the #cocaine trade tried to preempt further disruption but the trade didn’t stop: coca prices dropped as risk increased. washingtonpost.com/world/the_amer…

5/ as coca price crash on one side of the world, some importers can buy more for less - also they try and build reserves, aware that things can quickly change. Hence more shipments and more seizures. More cocaine travels at times in reduced supply channels insightcrime.org/investigations…

6/ but the reason for more #cocaine into European ports is also due to the fragmented nature of the incoming cocaine trade while the importation mechanisms appear more controlled in cities - this means that policing happens mostly on risk based assessments journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.11…

7/ while personal travel is interdicted from east to west north and south, new business ventures might be taking a halt (brokers might be stuck) but still the cocaine supply chain has preference for the European market and this is unlikely to change insightcrime.org/news/europe-co…

8/ still to be seen how the pandemic will affect consumption in Europe: a) diversification of routes of shipping + delivery - #displacement effect following current policing techniques -b) the reserves of #cocaine built in these months > unlikely for the market to crash

9/ as noticed, the #cocaine pipeline to Europe is not only fragmented but also highly profitable. Many groups in Europe and many in Production countries have long histories of working together so they adapt to changing conditions insightcrime.org/investigations…

10/ last but not least, there are other things that are affecting the #cocaine trade to Europe now. First of all Brexit that changes the EU borders and the management of risks between British and EU ports policinginsight.com/features/analy…

11/ second, the nature of port policing is often predictable regionally > it pushes traffickers to being creative with concealment techniques, make use of all available doors (incl. smaller ports) while importers may seek systemic support in ports & around amazon.it/Port-Crime-Int…