THREAD
Are the social distancing measures damaging our immune systems? Less contact = reduced infection rates.
For example, the number of reported whooping cough cases during the reporting period 2020/2021 is less than 5% of that of the previous year
1/
@PHE produce weekly updates on statutory notifiable diseases and usefully provide comparisons to previous years. As might be expected, there has been significant decline in all. A few more graphs below to illustrate this 👇
2/
As well as whooping cough, there are significantly fewer reported cases of #meningococcal septicemia, acute #meningitis, #measles and #mumps
3/
4/
These are all nasty infections that can lead to severe illness, life changing complications and even death. It is a good thing that less cases are being reported.
5/
There has been some interesting debate however suggesting that without these pathogens to challenge our immune systems we are in fact, weakening our immunity. Is there any evidence for this?
6/
This seems to stem from the ‘hygiene hypothesis’ first introduced in the 1980s based on research that indicated children who are kept in very clean environments have higher rates of immune response conditions such as asthma and hay fever
7/
However, more recent research indicates that this is too simplistic, and that method of birth, the #microbiome and #sociodemographics should also be considered amongst a myriad of others. In fact, the human microbiome is emerging as a central component of good health
8/
So what about in the context of #COVID19 ? Will all the extra hygiene measures and social distancing damage our immune response?
9/
By the time we reach adulthood, we have been exposed to a multitude of known, and unknown pathogens. Soil for instance contains billions of bacteria which make up both the largest number and biomass (weight) of any soil microorganism.
10/
Coming into contact with pathogens spurs an immune response, but it doesn’t do anything to make our immune system stronger. This current period of contact with fewer pathogens does nothing to weaken the immune response that is required, as needed, in the future.
11/
The immune system is primed and ready, it doesn’t need continue bombardment by pathogens to strengthen it. The best thing you can do for your immune system is to avoid stress, eat healthily and get enough sleep.
12/
And it will be a very good thing if we don’t see meningitis and other nasties continue to circulate as they have in the past. We’ve eradicated #smallpox, this did not result in a global collapse of the human immune response to other diseases.
13/13
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More from @NicolaMedical

11 Feb
THREAD
Social distancing measures have not only reduced transmission of SARS-CoV-2, but also of the flu as seen here in this remarkable chart. Note the absence of any ‘spike’ in the 2020/2021 season indicated by the red arrow.
How have these measures impacted other viruses?
1/
@PHE_uk publish regular surveillance of Norovirus & Rotavirus, two viruses responsible for most cases of vomiting and diarrhoea in children & adults. Rotavirus is typically seen in young children.
2/
Note the remarkable decline in norovirus cases 2020/21 in this next figure vs. what might usually be expected
3/ Norovirus lab reports in England by week during 2019/2020 an
Read 7 tweets
30 May 20
THREAD
The latest @ICNARC report on ICU admissions was published last night, and on behalf of @ICS_updates and @COVID19actuary, please read this thread for an update
1/
There have been 321 new notifications of patients admitted to ICU with confirmed #COVID__19 . (9347 in total) This is largely static compared to last week, but still around 40% of 2 years’ worth of viral pneumonia admissions in ‘normal’ times
2/
The distribution according to critical care network remains unchanged with London and the SE showing the greatest number of admissions. The new admissions this week appear to be concentrated in the London – South ODN
3/
Read 15 tweets
9 May 20
THREAD
The latest @ICNARC report is now out with, for the first time, multivariate analysis. So, stepping into @ActuaryByDay shoes, here’s the summary, and a link to the full report. icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audi… @COVID19actuary @ICS_updates
1/
The report captures all patients in E & W with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to ICU up until 4pm on 7 May 2020 where outcome data is available. So far, of the 10,758 notified admissions, 6143 have outcomes reported and 2107 are still receiving critical care
2/
The downward trend for admissions to ICU continues; the effects of social distancing evident
3/
Read 13 tweets

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