“Public Health Director Horacio Arruda has said that vaccination will make COVID-19 less severe and that we could tolerate up to four to six times more cases if they were less severe. Yet if there is more community transmission, there will be more variants, more long-term COVID..
“...and the possibility of more long-term effects among the younger population.
...
“... So far, the authorities have aimed to slow down the epidemic rather than to prevent it, to reduce the surges instead of suppressing all outbreaks. They have been playing it it by ear, with changing and seemingly arbitrary rules that have been confusing and disconcerting.
...
..We can get out of this slump if we change our approach, by combining the vaccination campaign with a “COVID-zero” elimination strategy inspired by the ones used in NZ and certain other countries. It’s about reducing SARS-CoV-2 and its variants’ spread to a strict minimum.
How?
“..First, by early detection of cases. Second, by tracing potential contacts quickly. Third, by putting into quarantine, strictly and immediately, the group of people in question (building, school, town or region, depending on the case).
...
“... Lockdown must be strict (everything closed) but of limited duration. Social life and daily activities can then resume their normal course quickly.
...
“..To put this pandemic behind us, we need a more aggressive and proactive public health approach, with better targeted, quicker and stricter lockdowns in order for them to be shorter, and to protect public health in a more effective manner. “
Current policy seems to be producing a third "wave".
As always, #COVIDzero is the way out - the only rational and humane solution.
Had we adopted #COVIDzero strategy on Nov 11, we would have now *6.5 weeks of no community transmission*.
46 🍩days!
Which means businesses could be relatively safely reopened.
And we would have a perspective of a normal spring and summer.
...
Maybe we would need to stamp out small flare ups, but the vast majority of people who got sick or died from COVID between Jan 15 and today, would be healthy and alive.
And people who need to live in isolation since 1 year, could now have normal life. Since couple of weeks.
...
B117 grows exponentially in AB, doubling every 7 days.
At this rate it'll become dominant on Mar05
and AB will have:
Mar 15, 500 daily new cases
Mar 24, 1000 daily new cases
Mar 31, 2000 daily new cases
Yes, the government and AH can avoid it. By aiming for #COVIDzero ASAP
To put such growth in context:
AB fall surge: doubling time = 2.5 weeks
March, beginning of the pandemic: doubling time = 7 days
Today's B117, *despite of restrictions in place*: doubling time = 7 days
What does this fast growth mean?
1) AB travel control is weak -> B117 gets seeded in the community. 2) Testing (although impressively ramped up) and Tracing is *not* halting B117's exp. growth.
1) The B117 variant is a killer. We cannot afford to have it in AB
If we have 1000 cases/day now, with an R=0.86 we could reduce it to 600/day in 2 weeks
➡️But w/ added transmissibility of B117 variant that has ~60% higher R, in 2 weeks, we’d have *3000* new cases/day instead
2) If B.1.1.7 is ~60% more transmissible, moderate shut-downs might not be sufficient for R<1.
Only strict 1st wave style Austria or NZ measures would be able to control B.1.1.7 spread.
3) The window of opportunity to get ahead of B117 is very narrow.
In South West London in just 2 weeks the amount of B117 grew from something quenchable, into an epidemic that is hard to controll even with very strict measures.
With strict measures AB can stop community transmission by late February.
Then protect zero community transmission status w/ travel control and cases monitoring.
To eliminate COVID in AB:
Keep stringent measures in place (get to and keep R=0.6) till we get to zero daily new cases.
Don't reopen in-person classes before we get to zero (that is till ~late February)
Sustained R, starting from 1,600 daily new cases (dnc):
R=0.97 ➡️ halving time (ht)=3 months ➡️ 1,020 dnc in 2 months
R=0.8 ➡️ ht=12.4 days ➡️ 60 dnc in 2 months, zero in 4.5 months
R=0.6 ➡️ ht=5.4 days ➡️ ZERO dnc in *2 months*
Toll of subsequent months (after the first 2 months):
R=0.97 : a lot of cases & deaths, high risk of exponential surge & next lockdown
R=0.8 : some cases and deaths, high risk of exponential surge & next lockdown
R=0.6 : NOTHING
3/