Thread by @UmlandAndreas

1/4: This could be the preparation of a military escalation in southern #Ukraine that would transform the Ukrainian-Russian conflict from a Russian "delegated inter-state #war" (@HauterJakob) into an ordinary inter-state war between the two countries.
ytro.ru/news/life/2021…

2/4: After a successful Russian court trial, the #Kremlin would claim to have the legal right to receive fresh water from the #Dnipro river (which starts in #Russia). Kyiv would not respect such a Russian court decision.

3/4: #Russia could invade southern mainland Ukraine to implement a respective court order and try to capture the now dry #NorthCrimeanCanal from the Dnipro to #Crimea. This would mean the first, from Moscow's side, official employment of regular Russian troops in dryland Ukraine.

4/4: The resulting #interstatewar in southern #Ukraine would take place in close vicinity to #Europe's largest #NuclearPowerPlant in #Zaporizhzhia.
@Konflikt_Sicher @TerekMedia @UkrVerstehen @GSPSipo @ukraine_world @NewsCrimeaEn @qhacrimeaqha @4freerussia_org @RusVerstehen