So I looked up all the $TSLA price targets on TipRanks.com along with each analyst's star rating (how good their past predictions have been on a 5-pt scale).

Then I just put them on a bubble chart, weighting each price target by the analyst's rating.

Notice anything? Image
Lots of possible takeaways, as with many data visualizations, but the one I'd like to draw your attention to is:

Without exception- *every analyst* who thinks $TSLA ought to be trading above $800/share is an above-average analyst.
And- again, without exception- every one of the below-average analysts thinks $TSLA is worth less than $800/share.
Here are the average stock price targets, for the 28 analysts who have one, grouped by ranking:

Bottom Quartile 7 analysts (1-star or worse):
$350

Top Quartile 7 analysts (4.7 stars or better):
$758

The other 14 analysts ranked toward the middle (1-4.7 stars):
$677

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More from @ICannot_Enough

14 Feb
I have updated my Tesla forecast and charts. 🤓

For those who don't want to read the whole 69-tweet thread:
slides 1-3 summarize the headline numbers & metrics
slides 4-20 are a bunch of pretty $TSLA charts (don't miss them!)
slides 21-69 are my detailed forecast model

1 of 69
I'm forecasting 178,254 deliveries in Q1 and almost 875K deliveries for 2021. That's 75% deliveries growth YOY.

Model S Plaid deliveries will be low in Q1, but ASP will be high. Most of 2021's growth will be Model Y.

I don't expect many Semi or Cybertruck deliveries.

2 of 69
Plaid S & X, growing Model Y sales mix, and increasing sales of FSD should improve total Automotive gross margin and thus profitability.

I have pushed the deferred tax asset to Q4 but have low confidence that's when it will occur. I just have to forecast it somewhere.

3 of 69
Read 69 tweets
11 Feb
New @elonmusk @joerogan interview premiering on YouTube now:
$TSLA #SpaceX
Here's "Shackleton's Ad" that Elon mentioned: Image
And here's a map of the expedition of his ship, the Endurance: Image
Read 27 tweets
10 Feb
OK, almost 2.5 years ago, I tweeted out a thread comparing $TSLA to $GM as investments based on their financial position and my evaluation of their prospects.

You can probably guess where I landed 🙃, but here's that old thread if you want to read it:
(updated charts to follow)
Since then, a few things have changed.

Somebody suggested that it would be more fair to use Long Term Debt than Total Debt for GM, so I made that change (shown here, updated through 2018 Actuals):
But a few years have happened since the end of 2018, so why not update the chart?

Are you ready?

You are *not* ready. 😂🤣

Without changing the original chart's scale, here it is updated through 2020:
Read 7 tweets
3 Jan
I have updated my $TSLA forecast with the reported Q4 deliveries.

Q4 looks like a ~$2.3B GAAP profit to me, including an unusual ~$1.6B benefit (deferred tax asset from prior years' losses) that will surprise many.

Adj. EBITDA is highlighted below for better comparability.
Total revenue per delivery should be down slightly, mostly due to sales mix (more 3/Y, less S/X). Automotive Revenue will break the previous quarterly record easily.
Total revenue should exceed $10B for the first time.

I have Total gross margin at 22.3%, not to be confused with Automotive gross margin of 26.0% with regulatory credits or 24.3% without.

The DTA benefit appears on the Provision/(Benefit) for Income Taxes line.
Read 13 tweets
3 Jan
With 2020 now in the rear view mirror, I thought it might be fun to post some 2020 $TSLA hater predictions gone wrong.

Matthew Battle:
🥴 “75,000 or less Model 3s in 2019 and even less in 2020.”

I’ll reply with a few more below and you can play along by adding your own.
@zekeboy4:
“Don’t think Tesla will be able to produce 300K cars/yr for the next 3 years”
Thomas Smith:
“No real earnings until after the BK process is resolved and new equity owners are brought on”.
Read 16 tweets
1 Nov 20
Here is my latest $TSLA forecast thread. Many numbers for those who like numbers & many charts for those who like charts.

Where does Tesla have left to go, after breaking all the records in Q3 2020?? They're just going to keep setting higher records. 🔌🔋⚡️🚗🚀📈
After Elon's stock-based compensation expense hit a record high in Q3, I saw some people worry that the expense will just keep rising every quarter. Fear not, $TSLA owner: that non-cash expense a) isn't real and b) has probably peaked (see 4th slide).
These charts are just different ways of showing Tesla's revenue growth and improving cost efficiencies which together lead to increasing profitability.
Read 19 tweets

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