Public Health England @PHE_uk have published the update for variants of concern and variants under investigation. Note that these are cases detected (and that these may be detected as the result of surge testing).
Rises in VUI B.1.525 (+26 since Tuesday) & VUI B1.1.318 (+10)
Here is the data table (data from @PHE_uk). Note B.1.1.7 is excluded in the chart above. To emphasise, these are the result of non-uniform testing and sequencing.
The VOC-20DEC-01 variant was first detected in the UK and was first sequenced in the UK in September 2020.
The VOC-20DEC-02 variant was first detected in South Africa and was first sequenced in the UK in December 2020.
The VUI-21JAN-01 variant was first detected in Brazil and was first sequenced in the UK in November 2020.
The VOC-21JAN-02 variant was first detected in Japan in travellers from Brazil in January 2021 and was first detected in the UK in February 2021.
The VUI-21FEB-01 variant was first detected in the UK in December 2020.
The VOC-21FEB-02 variant was first detected in the UK in December 2020.
The VUI-21FEB-03 variant was first detected in the UK in December 2020.
The VUI-21FEB-04 variant’s location of first detection is to be confirmed.
The VUI-21MAR-01 variant’s location of first detection is to be confirmed.
The VUI-21MAR-02 variant’s location of first detection is to be confirmed.
Many of these variants will have first been detected in the UK, but some may have been imported from overseas. See e.g. latest addition, P3 news.sky.com/story/covid-19…
"One of the cases is linked with international travel and the other is currently under investigation."
The risk of variants is that vaccines may be less effective. See e.g.
They find that fewer than 1 in 5 students (17.8%) had antibodies at the end of the Autumn term (which imples that more than 80% were susceptible to Covid).
"SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in 2,905 university students was 17.8% (95%CI, 16.5-19.3) ..."
"... ranging between 7.6%-29.7% across the five universities" (the universities are not named - 'University A' to 'University E')
The Government's roadmap for reopening has been published.
I will add commentary as I read through.
From first glance, there are no numbers for thresholds, which does in some way question the notion of 'data not dates'.
There are however a lot of dates in the document.
The roadmap itself is only 15 pages long.
It sets out 'principles'
- whole of England rather than regional response
- "led by data not dates" (see above)
- five weeks between steps - 'no earlier than'
- face-to-face education a priority
On the face of it, this does seem to be more weighted to dates rather than data.
It will be interesting to see if *any* quantitative thresholds for cases, hospitalizations, or pressure on hospitals are set out on Monday, or whether the only thing that are set are dates.
It is obviously a risk, I'd reports are correct, to send all school children back on the same date. One critical thing missing is the ability to adapt. If R exceeds 1 and hospitalizations increase as a result of this, all that can be done is to close face to face...
schooling with the effect this will have on children's continuity of education. It would be prudent to send *some* children back and see the effect before committing all children.
Remember, it is not just the interactions between children (which *could* be mitigated...