Public Health England @PHE_uk have published the update for variants of concern and variants under investigation. Note that these are cases detected (and that these may be detected as the result of surge testing).

Rises in VUI B.1.525 (+26 since Tuesday) & VUI B1.1.318 (+10)
Here is the data table (data from @PHE_uk). Note B.1.1.7 is excluded in the chart above. To emphasise, these are the result of non-uniform testing and sequencing.
Description of variants (from @PHE_uk):

The VOC-20DEC-01 variant was first detected in the UK and was first sequenced in the UK in September 2020.

The VOC-20DEC-02 variant was first detected in South Africa and was first sequenced in the UK in December 2020.
The VUI-21JAN-01 variant was first detected in Brazil and was first sequenced in the UK in November 2020.

The VOC-21JAN-02 variant was first detected in Japan in travellers from Brazil in January 2021 and was first detected in the UK in February 2021.
The VUI-21FEB-01 variant was first detected in the UK in December 2020.

The VOC-21FEB-02 variant was first detected in the UK in December 2020.

The VUI-21FEB-03 variant was first detected in the UK in December 2020.
The VUI-21FEB-04 variant’s location of first detection is to be confirmed.

The VUI-21MAR-01 variant’s location of first detection is to be confirmed.

The VUI-21MAR-02 variant’s location of first detection is to be confirmed.
Many of these variants will have first been detected in the UK, but some may have been imported from overseas. See e.g. latest addition, P3
news.sky.com/story/covid-19…
"One of the cases is linked with international travel and the other is currently under investigation."
The risk of variants is that vaccines may be less effective. See e.g.

This is one reason that some variants are said to be "Variants of Concern" (highlighted in bold in the chart above).

We remain in a contest between the virus, vaccines and variants.

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More from @Dr_D_Robertson

24 Feb
Public Health England @PHE_uk have published a report on prevalence of Covid in the university student population.

A very short thread.

Publication here:
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
They find that fewer than 1 in 5 students (17.8%) had antibodies at the end of the Autumn term (which imples that more than 80% were susceptible to Covid).

"SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in 2,905 university students was 17.8% (95%CI, 16.5-19.3) ..."
"... ranging between 7.6%-29.7% across the five universities" (the universities are not named - 'University A' to 'University E')
Read 6 tweets
22 Feb
The Government's roadmap for reopening has been published.

I will add commentary as I read through.

From first glance, there are no numbers for thresholds, which does in some way question the notion of 'data not dates'.

There are however a lot of dates in the document.
The roadmap itself is only 15 pages long.
It sets out 'principles'
- whole of England rather than regional response
- "led by data not dates" (see above)
- five weeks between steps - 'no earlier than'
- face-to-face education a priority
Read 17 tweets
22 Feb
Today the Prime Minister will announce the roadmap out of lockdown. A short thread.
First of all, a reprise of previous attempts at coming out of lockdown. They haven't gone well.

So, what is the plan for release of lockdown this time? At the moment, this is what we have to go on.

We are told this is "cautious"
gov.uk/government/new…
Read 13 tweets
21 Feb
On the face of it, this does seem to be more weighted to dates rather than data.

It will be interesting to see if *any* quantitative thresholds for cases, hospitalizations, or pressure on hospitals are set out on Monday, or whether the only thing that are set are dates.
It is obviously a risk, I'd reports are correct, to send all school children back on the same date. One critical thing missing is the ability to adapt. If R exceeds 1 and hospitalizations increase as a result of this, all that can be done is to close face to face...
schooling with the effect this will have on children's continuity of education. It would be prudent to send *some* children back and see the effect before committing all children.

Remember, it is not just the interactions between children (which *could* be mitigated...
Read 6 tweets
18 Feb
Here are my heatmaps for cases, positivity, hospitalizations, and ICU admissions. This covers the period to 14 February 2021.

With commentary on a possible Covid vaccine effect in hospitalizations for 75-84 year olds. ImageImageImageImage
DETECTED CASES

Falling in all age groups. Falling fastest in 70+. Possible vaccine effect, but uncertain due to different testing regimes used.

Detected case rates over 100 per 100,000 in working age adults and over 80s. Image
Here is the monochrome version of the chart above. Image
Read 10 tweets
12 Feb
Are we starting to see a clear vaccine effect in detected cases and hospitalizations?

In short, not yet.

A short thread.
Hopitalizations falling 46-49% in adult age groups over the last 5 weeks.
Detected cases falling 68-73% in adult age groups over the last 5 weeks.
Read 10 tweets

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