You’ve been bombarded by experts on what #Lebanon ‘s financial crisis is all about
Here is a simple explanation:
Consumers between 1997-2018 outsmarted / screwed current and future Lebanese consumers by using an overvalued currency to fund their purchases
End of story
2-This is not to say this was a deliberate or conscious decision by 1997-2018 to screw or outsmart the future generation of consumers
As one of my friends used to tell me
Living in #Lebanon during that period was too good to be true. He may not have known why but he felt it
3-This friend was huge spender. He lived at one of the city’s 5 star hotels for almost 18 years. He earned enough interest income to fund his lavish life style. He bought real estate. He had a driver. When I met him in late 2019, he said:
This had to come to and end. I knew it
4-This “Generational Theft” in #Lebanon May not have been “intentional” but it was just that
Current and future consumers or local currency earners will now pay the price for the over-consumption of the generation past
5-Lastly, those who are complaining about the current fall in purchasing power are missing the point
What they are seeing and feeling now is real
What was happening between 1997-2018 was the unreal part
Nothing will fix it or bring the old days back
That’s gone for good
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
1-Israel
2-Oil
3-Counter-Terrorism / War on Terror
Are the broad categories that define U.S strategic interests in the region
Many have attempted to include the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) in above list. Syria has been a case in point ==>
2-Israel & Oil are already secured enough
This has left counter terrorism or war on terror (WOT) as main rationale behind recent U.S interventions
Responsibility to Protect has been getting traction of late but as Syria’s case has shown it’s still work in progress in DC
3-Sep 11 of course capitulated War on Terror to the top of list behind recent U.S interventions in the region. While many may argue this was politically unavoidable in the case of Afghanistan, what about the more recent interventions to help defeat ISIS?
#Russia ‘s military intervention in #Syria was arguably the decisive turning point that decided the war
Yet,
When did Damascus decide to reach out to Moscow?
Did Washington know?
More importantly, could the U.S have done anything to prevent the intervention
==>
2-As early as 2012, Damascus had become aware that the war posed an existential risk to the system. Messages were sent to key opposition leaders that unless the situation was soon brought under control, leadership will have no option but to reach to our "big allies"
3-When Damascus became convinced that opposition had no intention of rolling back the unfolding crisis, decision was made to reach out to the big allies. Initial communication with Moscow took place in 2012 via respective heads of security
#Syria ‘s Old-style Baathists versus Bashar Assad’s liberalization policies
One thing that old-style Baathists understood was that being in the Arab nationalist anti-Western resistance camp had to go hand in hand with economic self-sufficiency
Boy, were they right
2-Since late 1960’a & early 1970’s Eco Self-Sufficiency became the hallmark of of #Syria ‘s political & social economy
Promote local industry to conserve on foreign currency and imports
Promote local agriculture to provide food security & heavily subsidized basic food staples
3-While self-sufficiency may made sense politically, it was an inefficient system that misallocated resources and allowed heavy handed Govt meddling in nearly every facet of Economic life. Many times, #Syria ‘s Govt found itself in the business of running businesses
Head of #Syria State Security Housam Luca made a visit to Tafas in Daraa province (Yes, Daraa again)
Goal was to help calm restless citizens who have had a list of complaints against the state
Short Thread ==>
2-As #Syria ‘s Head of State Security Housam Luca finished speaking, local citizens in the crowd seemed to reply back with agitation and anger towards the officials present
3-Local Tafas / Daraa residents then ask one of their own to speak to Head of State security official and list their grievances that ranged from missing and imprisoned men to widowed mothers not able to find bread for their children
Sharing a personal story to highlight the near collapse in the standards of living of most citizens in #Syria
-My cousin’s husband passed away this morning in Aleppo. He was diagnosed with cancer 3 months ago. He was an Agricultural Engineer who had worked for ICARDA
==>
2-#Syria ‘s currency has lost so much value that local currency income l, assets or savings are nearly worthless
One dose of Chemotherapy for his cancer treatment was quoted at $3,000. Doctor told them they need at least 4-5 doses
This was an inconceivable amount for them
3-While chemotherapy is priced in US$ , local income in SYP to pay for the above is in free fall
Income 1
Family owns small apartment that it rents out. Rent? $30 a month (SYP 95,000)
Income 2
Son works at a local back. Salary? $35 a month (SYP 110k)
Since the crisis began, R.Salameh has repeatedly told the nation that his Eco & currency policies were consistent with what has long been asked of him by the Government
Is this true? What does he mean by this?
Answer is Yes and No
Here is why ==>
Every Central Bank operates on the basis of a mandate / remit given to it by the Government
Different countries have given different mandates to their Central Banks
Such differences emanate from specific historical experiences each nation & society had experienced in the past
The U.S was scarred by depression & significant market swings in early 1900’s and when its Central Bank (Fed) was formed, congress gave it a dual mandate:
“Maximum Economic Growth and stable prices”
Note how there is no mention of currency stability in the mandate