Let's take a look on $UEX price action history from the last great #uranium bull market.
Note how any discounts(1) to 50 & 200dEMA would have been affordable to buy until the spot started dying.
2/7
When a #uranium stock moves, it tends to stay above its means, pushing extension to mean(2) very high, in case of $UEX all the way to 80-120% premium vs 50dEMA.
3/7
At the start of the trend the 20 day volume of the stock (3) increased substantially but as the trend matures, the 20d volume stays in the range of 1-1.5M shares, with only one overshoot on the way.
4/7
I marked 7 corrections on the way avg -48%. When these happen, think for it yourself, are you going to be able to hold on for POSSIBLE higher prices?
My a lot questioned way of trading my LT positions is based on these corrections.
5/7
Opportunity cost on trying to time this magnitude of a correction is eventually quite small compared to the possible benefit (no advice though). And you never know, when a correction... ->
6/7
...will be ultimately the one that won't rally anymore, as when these stocks go, they really go... (4).
7/7
I'm not saying we're seeing same kind of price in $UEX this time, but maybe we'll in some other company which is now in same situation UEX was back then.
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That said, I want to remind that we're still at the very beginning of the journey, and that it is very important to acknowledge that there will be local tops and big retracements ahead of us on this journey. Depending on the co, -20% even -50% retraces will happen for sure.
3/10
The main catalyst on the sector for mining companies is still staying put as the spot/lt contract pricing is neglecting the fundamental supply distruption.
As I took most of my positioning to #uranium bull at March 20 dip, I find myself constantly looking at attractiveness based on performance since that. Even though sector fundamentals have got better, most value on stocks has stayed the same.
2/ 6
If a stock is up 1000% by far, in my eyes it's 1/10th of as attractive as it was back in March. No matter the future potential. If I'd like to open a new pos, either I'd have to lower the pos size or accept the higher risk/reward ratio. This is why I like to avg up.
3/ 6
The profit or loss that can be made, is basically just the difference between price and value. Price action drivers can be either sentimental or fundamental. Basic rule for buying ->