Thread by @anonfmresident

Morning #ableg. NOT happy about it but here is your I told you so #shandemic report. Badness on all three fronts. Schools, Numbers and especially on variants of concern. Following report may be contain reality and be upsetting to religious zealots

As teachers/students are low priority we start there.
@SOSAlberta (+-Fri)
Schools with/had COVID cases 1256 (+7)
Last 2 weeks 328 (+34)
One case or Pre-Alert 115 (+22)
Alert (2-4) 118
Tier 1 Outbreak (4-9) 52 (-1)
Lagrange Lvl Outbreak (+4) 33
Closed 24 (+1)

There are also 99 variant cases in 53 different schools over 15 boards. 40 of which were likely transmitted IN school. March has shown a large spike in cases among 5-19 year olds. In this category the third wave has now reached 44% of Dec peak. + roughly 10% over last week.

Roughly 12% of schools are on alert or outbreak and the number is trending sharply up with
1,241 cases (+42 and
214 (+6) confirmed cases of in school transmission.

General numbers are no less grim and as of Sat were
555 Cases on March 20
1,963 Deaths
5,971 Active cases (+1053)
282 In hospital (+20)
47 In intensive care (+3)

Looking at the weekly average for the past week we see a number of trends and none of them good.
Daily new cases avg 557 (sharp increase)
Active cases 4811 ----->5971
Deaths 2.5/day
Hospital 248 ---->282 Current trend will have us over 300 threshold by week end.
ICU 38---->47

Now the reason for it (well that and DUMBASSES) VoC
To date there have been 1581 Total cases and 908 currently active. Over the past couple of weeks grow has been roughly 50% a week and accelerating. With a little over a week left in March we will easily make 1000 active cases

Predictions for the week of March 22-29
Daily new cases will be between 450-570
Active cases will end the week at or around 6500
Whether the current clown GoA eases restriction is a wild card but we will be back over 300 hospitalizations too.