Morning #ableg, it aint good. Little doubt the #thirdwaveAB has begun and is picking up steam. Three key factors. 1) Covid is spreading through schools 2) No longer even flat, R values all greater than 1. Variants well established and spreading. 3rd likely to hit youth hardest
Disturbing trends as monster @AdrianaLaGrange works on her rodeo appreciation curriculum. (=-)
Schools with/had COVID cases 1259 (+3)
Last 2 weeks 352 (+24)
One case or Pre-Alert 112 (-3)
Alert (2-4) 139 (+21)
Tier 1 Outbreak (4-9) 58 (+6)
Lagrange Lvl Outbreak 38 10+ (+5)
Schools with/had COVID cases 1259 (+3)
Last 2 weeks 352 (+24)
One case or Pre-Alert 112 (-3)
Alert (2-4) 139 (+21)
Tier 1 Outbreak (4-9) 58 (+6)
Lagrange Lvl Outbreak 38 10+ (+5)
There are now 1,474 active cases in Schools (+233)and
241 confirmed cases of in school transmission. (+27). Since the "great reset" in January, 24 have been forced to close and move online. Infections among 5-19 are now equiv to Nov at 44% Dec peak with a steep rate of climb.
241 confirmed cases of in school transmission. (+27). Since the "great reset" in January, 24 have been forced to close and move online. Infections among 5-19 are now equiv to Nov at 44% Dec peak with a steep rate of climb.
Province wide the trend has moved from decline to flat to now growth as we see the following numbers. 142,390 Total cases
456 Cases
1,968 Deaths (+5)
6,176 Active cases (+205)
280 In hospital (-2)
48 In intensive care (+1)
456 Cases
1,968 Deaths (+5)
6,176 Active cases (+205)
280 In hospital (-2)
48 In intensive care (+1)
Weekly trends
Daily new cases avg 517 (+ strong)
Deaths 2.3/day (steady)
Active cases 4776 --> 6176
Hospitalization 260 ----> 280 (+)
ICU 44----> 48 (+ slight)
Daily new cases avg 517 (+ strong)
Deaths 2.3/day (steady)
Active cases 4776 --> 6176
Hospitalization 260 ----> 280 (+)
ICU 44----> 48 (+ slight)
Hospitalization is a number to watch. Currently it is under 300 the number set for "Phase 3 reopening". However the trend is in the wrong direction and can reasonably be expected to be over by the weekend. As a trailing stat we will start to see a large bump by April 1.
The largest issue is likely the three VoC now found in Alberta with one now well established. Current stats
B.1.1.7 (UK variant)1,169 (+91)
B.1.351 (South African variant) 17
P.1 (Brazilian variant) 2
Total 1188
B.1.1.7 (UK variant)1,169 (+91)
B.1.351 (South African variant) 17
P.1 (Brazilian variant) 2
Total 1188
The largest issue is clearly B.1.1.7 which is showing largely geometric growth (+50% weekly) hence predictions (rounded)
March 28 2600
April 4 4000
Arill 11 6000
April 18 9000
March 28 2600
April 4 4000
Arill 11 6000
April 18 9000
In sum. Like it or not this is a third wave, how bad it is going to get will depend on
1) Vaccination rates and who is vaccinated
2) Limited large super spreader activities.
3) emergence of new variants
4) Unforeseen?
1) Vaccination rates and who is vaccinated
2) Limited large super spreader activities.
3) emergence of new variants
4) Unforeseen?
Addendum. New R values are released weekly. R is really different for an engineer so I had to look up the meaning in Bio. Real simple actually, it is the number of people an infected person will also infect so >1 means growth.
Current Reproduction rate (R) for all zones March 15 to 21
Alberta provincewide: 1.14 (1.10-1.18)
Edmonton Zone: 1.13 (1.05-1.21)
Calgary Zone: 1.23 (1.17-1.29)
Rest of Alberta: 1.05 (0.99-1.11)
Unsurprising #YEG and #YYC are the worse. Spreadneck events?
Alberta provincewide: 1.14 (1.10-1.18)
Edmonton Zone: 1.13 (1.05-1.21)
Calgary Zone: 1.23 (1.17-1.29)
Rest of Alberta: 1.05 (0.99-1.11)
Unsurprising #YEG and #YYC are the worse. Spreadneck events?
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