Thread by @peterjsalisbury

Saudi Arabia has announced what it’s calling ‘an initiative to end the Yemeni crisis’ that is attracting a lot of attention.

Some quick thoughts (THREAD).

1. This isn’t a new initiative, it’s a new spin on a year old one. The announcement more than anything signals clear Saudi support for a version of a initiative that has been under discussion for more than a year, 1st under UN, more recently with US playing an assertive role.

What’s been under discussion: nationwide ceasefire overseen by the UN accompanied by measures to reopen Sana’a airport, lift restrictions to trade into Hodeida ports, followed by national political talks. Until the turn of the year it was being packaged as the joint declaration.

2. The devil is still in the details. The Saudis, the government and the Huthis all say they support the initiative in concept terms but have quibbled incessantly over timing, sequencing and the details of each aspect.

The Huthis e.g. want Sana’a airport and Hodeida airport completely opened to unregulated traffic. GoY want to gain more oversight over both as part of any deal. And Saudis and GoY at first wanted ceasefire first, economic / humanitarian measures later.

3. In this context, language matters. The Saudi statement calls for ‘a comprehensive ceasefire’ and ‘reopening Sana’a international airport to a number of direct regional and international destinations’. The language on Hodeida however is more challenging.

‘Depositing taxes and custom revenues for ships carrying oil derivatives to the port of Hodeidah in the joint account of the Central Bank of Yemen in Hodeidah, in accordance with the Stockholm Agreement on Hodeidah.’

Revenue collection and distribution at Hodeida has been one of many sticking points since the Stockholm Agreement in 2018 and the focus of an escalating war of words that has resulted in the government preventing any fuel shipments entering Hodeida since early Feb.

So on a first read, the Saudi proposal appears to double down on the idea that it is the Huthis who have to make concessions here. That won’t sit well with negotiators in Sana’a/Muscat.

And indeed the Huthi response has been clear: they say this is an old offer, and that they’ve been clear in their position. Completely lift barriers to movement on Hodeida and Sana’a airport. They accuse the Saudis of using the humanitarian crisis as leverage.

3. What’s next? More talk and probably more crossborder airstikes, missile/drone attacks and fighting on the ground. We’re in a period where the parties are using all tools at their disposal to improve their bargaining position.

The good news: this means they are negotiating.
The bad news: a lot could go wrong. An errant air or missile strike could blow the whole process up.

In sum: the Saudi proposal isn’t new per se, and is likely aimed at pressuring the Huthis. It makes clear what’s being discussed but probably doesn’t tell us what the details of a successful agreement might look like...