Thread by @DrEricDing

BREAKING—“A new pandemic”—Germany 🇩🇪 announces strict Easter lockdown. "What we have is essentially a new pandemic," Merkel said. The new variant #B117 is "significantly more deadly, significantly more infectious."

I’ve warned a new #COVID19 wave coming.
dw.com/en/germany-imp…

2) “German federal and state leaders have agreed on a radical shutdown over the Easter holidays.
Germany is extending the current lockdown through to April 18, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced on Tuesday.

3) “The country will enter an even stricter lockdown from April 1 to April 5, over the Easter holiday period when shops, including grocery stores, will largely have to close.
Talks between leaders of 🇩🇪’s 16 federal states and Merkel lasted until the early hours of the morning”

4) “Merkel warned that Germany needed to "break the exponential growth of the third wave" as case numbers reached levels that authorities say will overburden ICUs.

Tuesday's announcement marks a reversal from earlier when state leaders agreed to begin a cautious reopening.

5) I’m very worried about this also happening soon in the US with its own #B117 and other variants surging.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1373070181774295040

6) there is a clear upward trend across Europe.

Sidenote: Brazil looks like its cases are rising slowly. But it’s death curve rise is the steepest.

7) Unlike many other world leaders, Merkel, a scientist herself, knows that even though a curve’s increase looks slow, it is actually exponential—and can spot it in the data.

8) Merkel’s “new pandemic” quote about #B117 variant sounds eerily familiar...

oh wait...

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1357566949404905472

9) It’s well know #B117 is more contagious (by 40-60% faster transmission), but it is also 64% more severe. Danish study puts #B117 with 64% higher risk of hospitalization. And this isn’t the only severity study...

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1367562270172205060

10) Another UK govt report says #B117 is 30-70% more severe.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1361413249426628613

11) And another study puts #B117 at 64% (yet again) higher risk of mortality, and growing more over time perhaps.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1369639982944686087

12) Adjacent to Germany in Belgium 🇧🇪, its Prime Minister gave a sobering announcement on pediatric transmission and hospitalizations of young adults. Belgium is also inundated by #B117 (as is France).

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1374140057964134403

13) Merkel’s speech on the new #B117 variant: “We basically have a new pandemic. The mutation from 🇬🇧 has taken over—it is clearly more lethal, more contagious and contagious for longer."

Germany 🇩🇪 is taking it serious. @GovRonDeSantis should too.

14) And yes, #B117 is contagious for a longer period of time. It has a much wider distribution of infectious days (red).

15) To be clear, all the major vaccines so far work for #B117 variant. Please vaccinate!

It the South Africa 🇿🇦 #B1351 variant that is the main concern. But even for that variant, J&J and Novavax have directly data to support efficacy.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1371209487491735553