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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
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24 Mar, 12 tweets, 10 min read
Brazil🇧🇷 #P1 variant surging in British Columbia 🇨🇦. How much?

📍92% (140/152) of all #P1 in 🇨🇦 are in BC.

📍BC 🇨🇦 has over 2x the number of #P1 than entire USA 🇺🇸 combined (61).

📍BC 🇨🇦 found more new #P1 (+30) yesterday **in 1 day than Florida has entire pandemic**. #COVID19
2) Is there a bad #P1 trend in BC 🇨🇦? Yes...

Keep in mind Florida (the US state with most #P1) has only had 23 cumulative cases in all. BC has had more than that for each of the last 2 days alone.
3) There is debate how fast transmission of #P1 variant is. But several groups estimated it is 2-2.5x more transmissible. The 2.5x estimate is from Brazil research group @obscovid19br....
4) Meanwhile, another UK group at Imperial puts #P1 at 2x (100% increase) more transmissible than older common strains. — but with even larger reinfection potential.

Keep in mind #b117 from UK is only 40-60% faster than old common. This implies maybe #P1 is faster than B117.
5) We don’t know precise vaccine efficacy against #P1. But mRNA vaccine studies show it is intermediate in lab neutralization studies. Not as bad as 🇿🇦 #B1351, but moderately more evasive than #B117.

Definitely vaccinate. But we need to hope P1 doesn’t get out of control.
6) Head scratching — I don’t know why BC health chief keeps insisting the variants of concern (B117 P1 and B1351) are not different than older strains. That is patently false and been well known for months.

7) If we ignore #P1, then #P1 will just do it’s natural thing. Brazil’s president Bolsonaro ignored #P1 menace. Don’t make the same mistake @jjhorgan @adriandix @CPHO_Canada @DrBonnieHenry @CDCofBC.
8) Don’t ignore #P1. This is P1...
9) Please don’t be complacent.
10) Total variants as % of BC cases are growing in BC. Screenshot from @rdumont99.

BC cases also up 20% from last week.
11) Canada 🇨🇦 can’t afford to be complacent. It’s not too much ahead of Brazil 🇧🇷 where there are vaccine shortages. It needs to takes #P1 seriously.
12) This is what complacency does in British Columbia 🇨🇦

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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
26 Mar
Why did German Chancellor Angela Merkel warn on camera so strongly that the #B117 variant is “more severe, more infectious, infectious longer” and separately infects kids more than old strain? Because data precisely matching what was predicted. This can be any of us. #COVID19 Image
2) Merkel’s speech on the new #B117 variant: “We basically have a new pandemic. The mutation from 🇬🇧 has taken over—it is clearly more lethal, more contagious and contagious for longer."

Germany 🇩🇪 is taking it seriously. We should too.

3) #B117 & kids—i trust Angela Merkel because she’s on top of the science

"The 🇬🇧 mutant is proven to be more dangerous in children and young people so we need to put the protection of schools more front and centre than with original virus” Merkel said.
mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/id…
Read 10 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
26 Mar
3 feet in schools may not be enough—Osterholm said CDC 3-feet were based on data done when only the original, wild-type virus was circulating, not #B117.
"What little science supports 3 vs 6 feet goes out the window here. Is 6 feet even safe?" #COVID19 cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspecti…
2) “Europe's lessons: Open schools may close again
In Europe, where schools have been opened since the fall, some countries, have now had to close doors in light of the spread of the B117 variant. Italy, Denmark, Netherlands, Germany, have all confirmed B117 outbreaks in schools.
3) “But data on B117 and children are limited and conflicting, as the variant was only first identified in the United Kingdom in December. Non–peer-reviewed studies have shown children under 18 make up a larger share of UK B117 cases.”
Read 9 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
26 Mar
Brazil #P1 now invading neighbors: Paraguay Minister of Health “confirms that the Manaus, Brazil variant is already circulating in the country". ICUs in Paraguay are now maxed out—#COVID19 deaths surging.

Let this be a warning—this can all be us.
2) Don’t believe me ICU’s are maxed out? Not only are intensive care beds unavailable anymore, but medical oxygen is now seriously deficient too. All around serious situation.
abc.com.py/nacionales/202…
3) Not just Paraguay but also Uruguay deaths are rising quickly. Image
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
25 Mar
Shameful—French court rules that sex with 13-year-old girl can’t be tried as rape.

Under 🇫🇷 law, sex with a minor under age 15 is considered illegal only if not consensual. Given difficulty of proving a minor was forcibly coerced, only ~1% convicted. 🤦🏻‍♂️ washingtonpost.com/world/2021/03/…
2) “France’s top court has rejected a bid to pursue rape charges against a group of firefighters accused of repeatedly raping a girl “Julie” during a period between her 13th-15th birthdays. The men will instead be charged with sexual assault, which carries a lighter sentence.
3) “Attorneys for Julie’s family plan to contest that decision and bring the case to Europe’s Court of Human Rights.
The horrific allegations in Julie’s case have galvanized protesters who want to see France institute stricter age-of-consent laws.
Read 10 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
25 Mar
More and more young people. Analysis of data from Brazil found “people aged 30-59 represented about 27% of #COVID19 deaths over the past 3 months or so—7% increase from pre-December numbers.” This matches the trend of many younger adults in ICUs in 🇧🇷. 🧵
cnn.com/2021/03/24/ame…
2) “And amid that (Brazil) surge, a worrying pattern has emerged—more young people seem to be getting severely ill and dying from Covid-19, doctors tell CNN.”
3) Across the country, intensive care physicians keep saying the same thing: In this latest wave, their patients are younger than ever.
"We have otherwise healthy patients that are between 30 and 50-years-old and that is the profile for the majority of patients,"
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
24 Mar
BREAKING—due to surging #COVID19 cases, India 🇮🇳 has frozen all major exports of AstraZeneca #COVIDVaccine made by Serum Institute of India, world’s biggest vaccine-maker, to meet domestic demand as infections rise. This will also delay supplies to COVAX.
reuters.com/article/health…
2) “COVAX has so far received 17.7 million AstraZeneca doses from the SII, of the 60.5 million doses India has shipped in total, and many countries are relying on the programme to immunise their citizens. There have been no vaccine exports from India since Thursday.”
3) “Everything else has taken a backseat, for the time being at least,” said one of the sources. Both sources had direct knowledge of the matter, but declined to be named as the discussions are not public.
Read 11 tweets

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