Thread by @TheLastDegree

Gold is dead.

And that’s exactly why I am positioned.

The turn is in, a wrap-up of evidence here in this thread ⬇️

#preciousmetals #metals #gold #silver

1.

the dominant intermediate #gold cycle in the new bull market runs 1y (it was shorter last bull)

while we claimed the 2 bottom 'live'when it happend, Nov 30 and mid March, this yearly cycle retraced 0.618 to the tick, while indicators are all turning UP on weekly levels

2.

#gold with 3 trading days left, the monthly candle is shaping up as a reversal.

watching close early next week

3.

#silver imagine it took 232 days to touch the 200DMA.

the last touch June 15, was the start of the ride.

the strength has been spectacular.

zoom out.

the small the cup & handle is beyond beatifull in the bigger 50y pattern, while again respecting fibo levels

4.

$GDX nothing has really changed, only the torture of time.

time wears everybody out

keep it simple, and this is simple.
a backtest before the ride to all time highs.

5.

$SILJ has been consolidation the impulse leg putting in a higher highs in the last few months.

any breakout will be violent.
the only way to trade is to buy the bottom rail.

Silver is the place to be, reflected by the SILJ to GDX ratio.

6.

$NEM the bellwether has been signalling an impulse wave ahead of gold and $GDX.

it's coming.
hidden underlying strength is a strong signal.

7.

with the Suez canal blocked, and Oil also breaking out of a bull flag, expect the 10y inflation breakeven yield to surge.

inflation is coming, and there is no sign of a slow down

we are now above the 2013 gold bear market breakdown levels

8.

this is further strengthend by the chart of @TaviCosta

billions are started to flow in the markets
expect inflation to surge and rield yields to head for new lows

9.

Real Yields is together with M2 an important indicator.

we have seen the highs imo, and real yields are heading lower again.

the risk is clearly to the downside, which is positive for Gold

10.

What about the dollar?

i could care less about the dollar.

all my massive gold gains where a rising gold price together with the dollar. in this bull market, and in the 2009-2011 bull as well.

currency debasement is global.

think global.

11.

What's your macro view for 2021?

i see all markets rising together: stocks, commodities, bitcoin and precious metals into an important top around Q4

12.

How am i positioned?

i have 5 different focus themes.

the first is Silver miners. the Silver Sitfolio is UP 53% during this long & hard consolidation since August.

the top 10 = lower risk exposure to quality Silver juniors, with skilled management

goldventures.org/blog/silver-si…

13.

Physical #silver and #gold is the cornerstone for the longer term. Imo it's crucial to position years ahead, even if i think the rewards will come much, much later.

it's also a question about availability before price discovery.

goldventures.org/blog/physical

14.

While i believe the next year will be about Silver, i agree fully with Crescat macro thesis that the bigger LT gains will be made in Gold discoveries.

central banks own gold.
there is a lack of reserves.
gold exploration = LT lifechanging

goldventures.org/blog/gold-sitf…
15.

the 4th theme is commodities, and as such i hold a little Uranium stocks and Copper stocks (see website)

last, i am long the stock market, as a hedge.
yes long - not short.

16.

What about #Bitcoin ?
bitcoin will do extremely wel this year: i see a x3-x4

but in my opinion it will not survive the wealth transfer (timeline = a decade, i am a generational investor)

if it does, no problem.

i highly doubt it.

17. end.