Thread by @AndrewNoymer

Regional covid epidemiology in the US of A.

A short 🧵.

Living in California, I have been increasingly optimisitc of late. Pic related.

But...

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But, New York and New Jersey, OTOH, are giving me the heeby jeebies...

... my thinking *before* this pandemic was that the next pandemic would see rapid spread, leading to regions being in phase with one another. Ex., there has not been a ground-stop of aviation.

continued...

And it's not just the northeast. Here's Michigan:

Clearly, the US of A remains a country with epidemics, plural, playing out at least with different timing in different regions.

continues...

These other states do make me wonder, but I remain optimistic, for now at least, about California, especially in light of the vaccine rollout here, and the fact that it's broadening on 1 April 2021, and going to the whole population on 15 April 2021.

But I can't tell you what's going on nationwide, in any holistic sense, and, friends, I would caution you to be wary of explanations that everything here is "textbook" epidemiology. #covid

to clarify one thing:

"whole population" vaccination on 15 April in California, in the above tweet, means everyone who is *eligible* under existing FDA emergency use authorizations, viz., age sixteen years and older.