Thread by @pmdfoster

🚨🚨🚨NEW: as #COVID19 lockdowns start to end Northern Ireland hospitality sector faces Brexit ‘trouble’ after suppliers told they can’t use supermarkets easements scheme - which begs some interesting Qs. Stay with me/1

on.ft.com/2PJca43

The background to this comes as a) the UK and the EU try and agree a "road map" or "work programme" to get the Protocol moving again after another stand-off/EU legal action after UK unilaterally extended easements for GB businesses sending stuff to NI /2

And b) as NI prepares to chart its path out of lockdown, re-opening pubs/cafes/restaurants etc which the NI Executive is under growing pressure to do - BUT that means sharp up-tick in volumes of goods going to supply them /3

https://twitter.com/HospUlster/status/1377185823406186496?s=20

Which is why, per report above, a host of supplier/biz groups were shocked last week to be told by Defra/HMRC/Cab Office officials that -- despite best efforts to convince EU -- they wouldn't be able to use scheme set up for retailers (even tho some have been) /4

There is a certain amount of confusion here (since some are on the Authorised Trader list for retail supply) but ultimately UK officials told them that there was "no credible legal basis" to allow them to use the scheme, even it had been tolerated during lockdown /5

For leaders of groups like @ColdChainShane @Foodanddrinkfed @HospUlster @RHAJohnMartin this presents potentially "significant" problems ahead, stretching supply lines and testing fixes on groupage to the limit /6

What can we deduce from all this? Well, couple of things, I think.

First, that the EU is really NOT budging on a lot of stuff...ultimately the 'grace periods' are there to give biz time to adjust...but adjust they must /7

What that means in practice -- more Irish suppliers? Higher costs? Less GB suppliers? Less product choices? -- is really yet to play out. Remember, the Protocol really hasn't landed yet, thanks to the grace periods /8

But secondly, the messaging from officials points to the fact that the UK government IS serious about implementing the Protocol, and in fact is throwing itself on the mercy/ingenuity of industry to make it happen /9

Officials were very clear they accepted there weren't "simple answers" and certainly that the Authorised Traders scheme for retailers wouldn't be a "silver bullet" for hospitality/public sector (schools, prisons etc) /10

There could be fixes - like for example a retrospective "apportionment" scheme that means you only pay tariffs on items that actually went to the EU single market...rather than paying up front and reclaiming...this, distributors say, would be big step /11

But it is clear that there is disquiet among industry/suppliers that - as hospitality sector opens in NI (supports 72,000 jobs, 4th largest private sector employer) the sudden boom in trade is going to be very tough to service. /12

This is all why trust needs re-establishing, EU needs to meet with real traders, so that the EU really can start to understand some of the pressures that the Protocol puts on both business and politics. I'm still not sure it's been properly grasped, thanks to all the noise ENDS