Lot's of discussion yesterday on the surprisingly light U.S. acreage intentions. This is total 2021 acres versus March 2020 intentions (I posted these numbers versus 2020 final yesterday). Most states reported fewer planted acres for 2021 than they did for 2020.
But I asked farmers yesterday to give insight on why acres were light and got a BUNCH of good answers (thank you!). Some of those explanations (high cost of inputs, prices of other crops - hay for example, rotations, etc) all make sense. Check out that thread if you haven't.
Another possible angle: If we claim low confidence in USDA's 2021 numbers, wouldn't we also want to question their March 2020 numbers? Maybe the March 2020 intentions were too ambitious. And ultimately, these numbers are based on what farmers told USDA.
Some have suggested farmers could just straight up lie on the surveys, but USDA does have checks for that. Yes, the data is survey based, but USDA checks it for consistency with past years so reporting something wildly different would certainly raise a flag.

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More from @kannbwx

31 Mar
March 1 #corn stocks come in slightly below expectations while those for #soybeans just a bit above. #Wheat stocks came in higher than the trade guess.
Versus what was reported in January, December 1 stocks came in:

#Corn 28 million bushels lighter
#Soybeans 13 mln bu heavier
#Wheat 29 mln bu heavier

No change to Sept. 1 stocks! 🥳
Just a quick table to show how these Dec. 1 revisions compare with prior years. Lighter on corn than last year but heavier than usual on both soy and wheat.
Read 4 tweets
12 Dec 19
This again.

#China agreeing to make $50 billion in U.S. agricultural purchases in 2020.

The RECORD value for annual U.S. ag product exports to China was in 2012 at just under $26 billion. Compare commodity prices then and now. For reference, 2017 was $19.5 billion.
And if you consider Ag & Related Products (includes fish & forestry products) - max was $29 billion in 2013. So this is the absolute max previous ceiling considering all exports that could be considered ag.

I'm not seeing how $50B is possible in 2020.
I posted this as a reply below, but worth repeating:

The max annual combined export value of U.S. #pork and #soybeans to ALL destinations: $31 billion in 2012.

Add in #corn (TOTAL, to ALL buyers): $41 billion in 2014.
Read 7 tweets
3 Jun 19
Only 67% of U.S. #corn was planted as of June 2, well below the five-year average of 96%. That is +9 points on the week and below the trade guess of 71%.

The planting pace has been RECORD slow for 2.5 weeks now. #plant19
U.S. #soybeans were 39% planted as of June 2, now the SLOWEST on record and well below the average of 79%. That is +10 points on the week. The trade was expecting progress at 42%. #plant19
#Corn planting, June 2 (5yr avg):
Illinois 45% (98%)
Indiana 31% (94%)
Ohio 33% (90%)
Iowa 80% (99%)
Minnesota 76% (98%)
Nebraska 88% (98%)
S Dakota 44% (96%)
Michigan 42% (87%)
Missouri 69% (97%)
Wisconsin 58% (91%)
N Dakota 81% (93%)
Kansas 79% (93%)
#plant19
Read 5 tweets
1 Jun 19
A view of the #CropWatch19 #corn field in southern Illinois. Half of the 90 acres needs replanting but it is far too wet to attempt that now. And more rain may be coming early next week. Planted May 18.
Here's the end rows on the higher ground. #Corn in this part of the field is looking average at best right now.
The #CropWatch19 #soybeans in southern Illinois, right next to the corn, are in better shape than the corn but at least 10 acres of the 90 need replanting - if it ever dries up.
Read 5 tweets
28 May 19
Only 58% of U.S. #corn was planted as of May 26, the slowest pace on record. That is only +9 points on the week and drastically lower than the average of 90%. The trade was expecting 63%. #plant19
U.S. #soybeans were 29% planted as of May 26 versus 19% in the previous week and an average of 66%. Trade expected 31%. Spring #wheat was 84% planted versus 70% in the previous week and an average of 91%. Trade expected 83% on spring wheat. #plant19
#Corn planting progress, May 26:
Illinois 35% (5yr avg 95%)
Indiana 22% (avg 85%)
Iowa 76% (96%)
Minnesota 66% (93%)
Nebraska 81% (94%)
Ohio 22% (78%)
N Dakota 63% (85%)
S Dakota 25% (90%)
Wisconsin 46% (82%)
Missouri 65% (95%)
Kansas 70% (88%)
Michigan 33% (73%)
#plant19
Read 7 tweets
10 May 19
Tweets from Trump just now:

"With the over 100 Billion Dollars in Tariffs that we take in, we will buy agricultural products from our Great Farmers, in larger amounts than China ever did, and ship it to poor & starving countries in the form of humanitarian assistance."
And next in the chain:

"Our Farmers will do better, faster, and starving nations can now be helped."
Not sure which agricultural products he's talking about, but we have an oversupply of soybeans and we're heading there on corn. Poor & starving nations don't have robust livestock industries so I'm not sure how this is supposed to work. People don't eat corn/soybeans.
Read 8 tweets

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