Post

Tara Moriarty

Apr 3, 2021 • 33 tweets • 24 min read • Read on X

Apr 2

1 of every 43 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb 2020

1 in 69 BC
1 in 75 AB
1 in 78 SK
1 in 36 MB
1 in 49 ON
1 in 29 QC

1 of every 5 Cdns w/ C19 in long-term care & retirement homes has died

LAST 28 DAYS: 817 deaths, 1,335 LTC/RH cases, 368 LTC/RH deaths

Apr 2

-#COVID19 is in top 4 largest mortality events in #Canadian history

-Last 28 days: 817 Canadians died of C19

-If every week is like this week, 834 Canadians may die in next 28 days

Apr 2

#COVID19 #Canada

CASE FATALITY RATES

Wave 1 (to Aug 17)
Wave 2 (to Feb 18)
Wave 3 (Feb 19 to date)

Apr 2

Since Feb 2020

For every 1 Atlantic & Northern #Canadian who DIED of #COVID19 this many people died of COVID-19 in other regions*

BC 7X
AB 11X
SK 9X
MB 16X
ON 12X
QC 30X

Rest of #Canada 14X
Rest of World 9X

*after adjusting for population differences

Apr 2

#COVID19 #Canada DEATHS since Feb 2020

Table: Deaths/100K & change last 7 days for provinces, Canada, rest of world

Graphs
-Total deaths (mid top)
-Total deaths per 100K (mid bottom)
-Wkly rate of change in deaths (bottom right)

Apr 2

#COVID19 #Canada

DEATHS/100K

Wave 1 (to Aug 17)
Wave 2 (to Feb 18)
Wave 3 (Feb 19 to date)

Apr 2

1 of every 5 #Canadians with #COVID19 in long-term/ personal care & retirement homes has died since Feb 2020

1 in 5 BC
1 in 7 AB
1 in 5 SK
1 in 4 MB
1 in 8 ON
1 in 4 QC

There are 1,335 LTC/RH cases in last 28 days

Apr 2

#COVID19 #Canada

Long-term care/retirement home CASE FATALITY RATES

Wave 1 (to Aug 17)
Wave 2 (to Feb 18)
Wave 3 (Feb 19 to date)

Note: some of deaths reported in W3 may have happened in W2 due to slow reporting in this sector.

Apr 2

Since Feb 2020

For every 1 Atlantic and Northern #Canadian in long-term care & retirement homes who DIED of #COVID19, this many people in LTC/RHs died of C19 in other regions*

BC 6X
AB 10X
SK 4X
MB 13X
ON 11X
QC 32X
#Canada 14X

*adjusted for population differences

Apr 2

#COVID19 #Canada long-term care & retirement home DEATHS since Feb 2020

Tables: Per capita deaths + change last 7 days, % total deaths in LTC/RH

Graphs:
-Total & per capita values (L)
-% total deaths in LTC/RH (R top)

Apr 2

#COVID19 #Canada

Long-term care/retirement homes
-DEATHS/100K
-% TOTAL DEATHS IN LTC/RH

Wave 1 (to Aug 17)
Wave 2 (to Feb 18)
Wave 3 (Feb 19 to date)

Mar-Nov 14, 2020

For every excess death of Atlantic and Northern Canadians 45+ years

This is how many excess deaths in same age group there were in other regions (after adjusting for toxic drug deaths)

BC 20X
AB 10X
SK 15X
MB 8X
ON 19X
QC 35X
Canada outside Atlantic, North 21X

Mar-Nov 14, 2020

#COVID19 #Canada

Estimated excess deaths/100K in different age groups (all, 45+, 65+) compared to reported C19 deaths and C19 deaths estimated from seroprevalence data and current case fatality rates

Estimated excess deaths are adjusted for toxic drug deaths.

Mar-Nov 14, 2020

#COVID19 #Canada

Reported C19 deaths/100K over time compared to estimated excess deaths/100K in different age groups (all, 45+, 65+)

Estimated excess deaths are adjusted for toxic drug deaths.

Mar-Nov 14, 2020

#COVID19 #Canada

Reported C19 deaths/100K over time compared to estimated excess deaths/100K in different age and sex groups (all, 45+, 65+)

Estimated excess deaths are adjusted for toxic drug deaths.

Mar-Nov 14, 2020

#COVID19 Atlantic & Northern #Canada

Reported C19 deaths/100K over time compared to estimated excess deaths/100K in different age and sex groups (all, 45+, 65+)

Estimated excess deaths are adjusted for toxic drug deaths.

Mar-Nov 14, 2020

#COVID19 #Quebec

Reported C19 deaths/100K over time compared to estimated excess deaths/100K in different age and sex groups (all, 45+, 65+)

Estimated excess deaths are adjusted for toxic drug deaths.

Mar-Nov 14, 2020

#COVID19 #Manitoba

Reported C19 deaths/100K over time compared to estimated excess deaths/100K in different age and sex groups (all, 45+, 65+)

Estimated excess deaths are adjusted for toxic drug deaths.

Mar-Nov 14, 2020

#COVID19 #Ontario

Reported C19 deaths/100K over time compared to estimated excess deaths/100K in different age and sex groups (all, 45+, 65+)

Estimated excess deaths are adjusted for toxic drug deaths.

Mar-Nov 14, 2020

#COVID19 #Alberta

Reported C19 deaths/100K over time compared to estimated excess deaths/100K in different age and sex groups (all, 45+, 65+)

Estimated excess deaths are adjusted for toxic drug deaths.

Mar-Nov 14, 2020

#COVID19 #Saskatchewan

Reported C19 deaths/100K over time compared to estimated excess deaths/100K in different age and sex groups (all, 45+, 65+)

Estimated excess deaths are adjusted for toxic drug deaths.

Mar-Nov 14, 2020

#COVID19 #BritishColumbia

Reported C19 deaths/100K over time compared to estimated excess deaths/100K in different age and sex groups (all, 45+, 65+)

Estimated excess deaths are adjusted for toxic drug deaths.

Apr 2

Since Feb 2020

For every 1 Atlantic & Northern #Canadian DIAGNOSED with #COVID19 this many people were diagnosed with COVID-19 in other regions*

BC 10X
AB 17X
SK 15X
MB 13X
ON 13X
QC 19X
Rest of #Canada 13X
Rest of World 8X

*after adjusting for population differences

Apr 2

#COVID19 #Canada CASES since Feb 2020

Table: Cases/100K & change last 7 days for provinces, Canada, rest of world

Graphs
-Total cases (mid top)
-Total cases per 100K (mid bottom)
-Wkly rate of change in cases (bottom right)

Apr 2

#COVID19 #Canada

CASES/100K

Wave 1 (to Aug 17)
Wave 2 (to Feb 18)
Wave 3 (Feb 19 to date)

Apr 2

Since Feb 2020

For every 1 Atlantic & Northern #Canadian in long-term care & retirement homes DIAGNOSED with #COVID19, this many people in LTC/RHs were DIAGNOSED in other regions*

BC 4X
AB 9X
SK 2X
MB 7X
ON 10X
QC 15X
#Canada 9X

*adjusted for population differences

Apr 2

#COVID19 #Canada long-term care & retirement home CASES since Feb 2020

Tables: Per capita cases + change last 7 days, % total cases in LTC/RH

Graphs:
-Total & per capita values (L)
-% total cases in LTC/RH (R top)

Apr 2

#COVID19 #Canada

Long-term care/retirement homes
-CASES/100K
-% TOTAL CASES IN LTC/RH

Wave 1 (to Aug 17)
Wave 2 (to Feb 18)
Wave 3 (Feb 19 to date)

Apr 2

WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
-Weekly rate of change in CASES

WHY?

This shows:
1) if our efforts over the last month are helping
2) when there are warning signs that epidemic may be speeding up again.

Apr 2

WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
-Weekly rate of change in HOSPITALIZATIONS

WHY?

This shows:
1) if our efforts over the last month are helping
2) when there are warning signs that hospitalizations may be speeding up again.

Apr 2

WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
-Weekly rate of change in DEATHS

WHY?

Shows:
1) if efforts ONE MONTH AGO helped
2) warning clues if deaths may be speeding up

ALSO: Rates of change in deaths help us estimate effects of measures such as vaccination in LTC/RHs, where reporting is slow

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1370498078063656961?s=20

Link to explainer of excess mortality estimates and what they mean:

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1370498078063656961?s=20

@NoLore

Sources of collated official data (in addition to @StatsCan_eng & provincial sites), with huge thanks:

@NoLore

@RyersonNIA

@CU_IIJ

@covid_canada

@OurWorldInData

Thank you to everyone protecting themselves & others by choosing vaccination.

/end

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More from @MoriartyLab

Tara Moriarty

@MoriartyLab

Sep 29

Canadian COVID Forecast: Sep 28-Oct 11, 2024

SEVERE: CAN, BC, MB, NB, North, NS, ON, QC, SK
VERY HIGH: NL, PEI
HIGH: AB
MODERATE: none

About 1 in 38 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.

https://x.com/MoriartyLab/status/1840537268852777150

Notre aperçu national en français :

https://x.com/MoriartyLab/status/1840537268852777150

https://x.com/michael_hoerger/status/1838075513430016207

WHAT'S NEW THIS WEEK?

The Forecast score for Canada is decreasing 7%/week (-14% to -2%/week for all regions).

About 1 in 38 people are currently infected (~147,000 infections/day).

This is similar to the Sep 23 estimate for the United States (1 in 45) from @michael_hoerger and team:

https://x.com/michael_hoerger/status/1838075513430016207

Read 13 tweets

Tara Moriarty

@MoriartyLab

Sep 29

Canadian COVID Forecast Sep 28-Oct 11, 2024

CANADA

SEVERE (decreasing)

Estimated infections this week: 962,700-1,097,900

About 1 in every 38 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~16X higher
-Long COVID ~15X higher
-Hospitalizations ~15X higher
-Deaths ~17X higher

https://x.com/MoriartyLab/status/1840536770607562888

Prévisions régionales sur la COVID-19 se trouvent ici :

https://x.com/MoriartyLab/status/1840536770607562888

Canadian COVID Forecast Sep 28-Oct 11, 2024

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

VERY HIGH (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 13,000-15,000

About 1 in every 38 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~15X higher
-Long COVID ~14X higher
-Hospitalizations ~12X higher
-Deaths ~14X higher

Read 16 tweets

Tara Moriarty

@MoriartyLab

Sep 28

School Classrooms and Masks and Air

School Classrooms and Masks and Air
Last week we offered a cornucopia of information about infection risks in the classroom.

This week we’re using the same data, and presenting a clear picture of the best ways to keep everyone safer while they are in school.

-FYI- This thread is also available on the C-19 website, starting on page 8, for easier reading.

lookerstudio.google.com/embed/u/0/repo…

Anecdotally, there’s a lot of chatter about absenteeism and staff shortages already this school year. Even with the ongoing pandemic, there’s no need for children and education workers to be sick all the time.

We can make our classrooms safer.

Spoiler alert: The data is clear, masking protects the most vulnerable and by doing so, protects everyone.

The Data Cards now model going to school in 3 different conditions: children wearing fit tested N95, regular N95 for little kids, or unmasked.

For those 3 conditions, the model also shows two kinds of school – schools with HVAC, those schools without HVAC. Lastly, the model shows the effects of including portable air purifiers in the classroom. We modelled Corsi-Rosenthal boxes, but tested Merv13 or HEPA filters also work.

This shift in presenting the data gives us a striking picture of risk progressions.

The story the Data Cards tell is that the most important thing you can do to protect your children is to put them in a well-fitting mask.

Masks reduce risk 100- fold, no matter the school ventilation situation.

Masks drive the risk down for your family dramatically.

Read 15 tweets

Tara Moriarty

@MoriartyLab

Sep 15

Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : SEP 14-27, 2024

CANADA

GRAVE (en baisse)

Infections pendant cette période : 1 031 400-1 095 400

Environ 1 personne sur 37 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~18X 🔺
-COVID longue ~18X 🔺
-Hospitalisations ~17X 🔺
-Décès ~22X 🔺

https://x.com/MoriartyLab/status/1830331164663407040

The english version of our regional forecast can be found here:

https://x.com/MoriartyLab/status/1830331164663407040

Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : SEP 14-27, 2024

TERRE-NEUVE ET LABRADOR

TRÈS ÉLEVÉ (en baisse)

Infections pendant cette période : 7 500-8 000

Environ 1 personne sur 63 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~10X🔺
-COVID longue ~11X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~13X🔺
-Décès ~19X🔺

Read 18 tweets

Tara Moriarty

@MoriartyLab

Sep 1

A few things that might help people understand differences in Canadian COVID Forecast scores across provinces....

I'll focus on comparing Alberta and British Columbia, since I get asked a lot why Alberta's scores aren't as high as BC scores in the summer, even though the provinces are adjacent.

In BC, most people live in parts of the province with winters that are considerably warmer than most provinces in Canada, including Alberta.

Even southern Alberta has MUCH colder winters than the BC lower mainland, and cooler spring and fall too. I know. I've lived in both the BC lower mainland and Calgary, and couldn't get over how summer in Calgary didn't seem to really start until July.

This graph shows infections/100K people per day in BC (pink), AB (teal) and Canada (blue) since Dec 4/21.

All provinces have essentially had the same number of infections since then--the timing of when they happened just differs.

Something you'll notice about BC is that fall/winter waves often aren't as big as in Alberta or the rest of Canada.

But....infection waves are bigger in BC from spring-summer.

This is likely because infections don't start taking off till mid-summer in other provinces because there's immunity from the fall-winter infections that hasn't worn off enough until then so that people are susceptible to a new infection.

It's sort of like the brakes have been applied to new infections after the big fall/winter wave in most province, and the pressure on those brakes starts getting lighter toward mid-summer, when infections pick up again.

It's a bit different in BC, since there historically haven't been quite as many infections in the fall/winter waves, which means the population is susceptible to new infections earlier than in colder provinces.

So, in spring and especially summer BC infections tend to take off sooner than in the rest of Canada. By contrast, in winter infections are often lower in BC.

I think we're basically seeing seasonal forcing of infections in most provinces that doesn't affect BC as much because most of the population lives in a more temperature climate.

In most of Canada, there has always been a strong seasonal forcing effect on influenza seasons--stronger than in many more temperature countries, and I suspect that's what we're seeing in most Canadian infection data except those from BC.

Scores can also differ between provinces because of intrinsic differences in population susceptibility to serious outcomes.

Alberta is the youngest province in Canada, and now that uptake of fresh vaccine doses is abysmal across Canada (AB had higher uptake than ON this past season, for example), differences in things like infection fatality and hospitalization rates between provinces are strongly driven by things we can't control, like the average age of the population and rates of underlying health issues.

So, even if AB and BC had exactly the same number of infections in the same week, the Forecast score for Alberta would be slightly lower than the score for BC, because Alberta is younger than BC.

It's also why scores for some Atlantic provinces, particularly Newfoundland and Labrador can be a fair bit higher than the Canadian average.

Newfoundland and Labrador is particularly strongly affected by this because the population is considerably older, plus higher rates of underlying health issues, plus an acute healthcare system that doesn't function quite as well as in big provinces at treating things like heart attacks (probably translating also to treatment of COVID).

And smaller provinces have suffered from poaching of healthcare staff to larger provinces that can pay more.

So, it's not always just about number of infections either. Populations differ in their susceptibility to COVID, and outcomes per infection in Canada range from the highest number of serious outcomes per infection in NL and the lowest in Alberta.

Hope this helps.

Actually, one more thing about BC.

BC is somewhat younger than QC. Its life expectancy is similar--somewhat less than QC now.

QC, followed by BC has the highest life expectancy in Canada, which means that on average the populations in these provinces are generally healthier than populations in other provinces.

Vaccination rates are also generally similar in both provinces, dating back to the start of vaccine availability.

So, infection fatality and hospitalization rates should be pretty similar in both provinces.

However, BC reports fewer than half the hospitalizations per infection than QC, and about a third of the deaths per infection as QC.

Part of this certainly reflects reporting differences between the provinces.

Reporting of serious COVID outcomes in BC has always been considerably lower than in QC, dating back to 2020.

However, the population infection fatality rate (pIFR) for BC calculated from excess mortality is 19% higher than the pIFR for QC, even though QC is slightly older (but also has a slightly healthier population).

By comparison, the pIFR for Ontario is 4% lower than for QC, pretty similar to what you'd expect based on the difference in ages of QC and ON populations.

So why is the BC pIFR higher?

It's not just toxic drugs. We correct for this, and BC actually has more complete, faster toxic drug death reporting than QC.

Plus, the age distribution of excess mortality in QC and BC is pretty similar, with respectively 90% and 80% of excess deaths happening in people 65 and older, as you'd expect for COVID.

It does look like there may be some additional drug deaths in the 45-64 year old age group in BC that aren't yet accounted for, but not enough to explain big differences in the pIFRs in the two provinces.

It is also possible that BC is actually hospitalizing fewer than half the number of people with COVID than are hospitalized in QC, which could certainly contribute to lower survival rates.

That is, maybe BC hospitalizations are much lower than QC hospitalizations not because of under-reporting, but because of "under-treatment" (not sure if that's the right word). Or maybe it's a mix of both under-reporting and under-hospitalization in BC and QC.

Read 4 tweets

Tara Moriarty

@MoriartyLab

Sep 1

Canadian COVID Forecast Aug 31-Sep 13, 2024

CANADA

SEVERE (increasing)

Estimated infections this week: 1,183,400-1,350,800

About 1 in every 32 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~25X higher
-Long COVID ~26X higher
-Hospitalizations ~20X higher
-Deaths ~18X higher

https://x.com/MoriartyLab/status/1830330556115976392

Prévisions régionales sur la COVID-19 se trouvent ici :

https://x.com/MoriartyLab/status/1830330556115976392

Canadian COVID Forecast Aug 31-Sep 13, 2024

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 12,600-14,400

About 1 in every 40 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~19X higher
-Long COVID ~21X higher
-Hospitalizations ~18X higher
-Deaths ~24X higher

Read 17 tweets

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