Thread by @DrEricDing

Let this sink in—over **half of all intubated young adults** on ventilators now dies from #COVID19 in Brazil 🇧🇷. What’s odds last spring 2020? 1 in 3.

That is likely an effect of #P1 variant—not just ICU capacity because March 2021 wasn’t included yet. 🧵

(HT @terrence_mccoy)

2) What about overall chance of dying if intubated in Brazil 🇧🇷 hospital recently? 72.8%. Last spring—60%.

3) Brazil’s crisis is almost unimaginable. Brazil’s 4000+ deaths a day is significant - even though Us is 50% larger in population, Brazil 🇧🇷 is much much younger in age distribution compared to a much more elderly US pop. Thus it’s not just equal to 6k US—Brazil likely worse.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1379771787416907776

4) Lots of Brazilian doctors also confirm hospital cases are getting younger and younger.

5) Doctors are also saying that new #COVID19 patients are now having symptoms progressing faster and more aggressively.

6) Here is the 5 minute video in which the doctor’s interview is from. It’s a sobering video. But please watch if you can. channel4.com/news/brazils-c…

7) “Brazil is like a Fukushima, it can put the whole world at risk” — both me and @MiguelNicolelis equated Brazil to a chain reaction disaster already underway. theintercept.com/2021/04/05/ent…

8) I’ve been trying to warn for many many weeks since mid March. We needed to pay attention and send aid to Brazil. But Bolsonaro resisting. Brazil’s health ministry was also less than full speed after waiting for Bolsonaro’s 4th health minister in a year to be installed.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1373501475805102082

9) My sources in Brazil also say that Bolsonaro’s 4th health minister was installed with **explicit orders** that lockdown and major mitigation measures are prohibited. And that the minister must allow off-label use of unproven / debunked chloroquine, & ivermectin. SMH 🤦🏻‍♂️

10) A major #P1 modeling study says it is up to 2.5x faster than old strain(s). This would make it much faster than #B117 from UK.

This was done by @obscovid19br research group in Brazil.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1372013248980074498

11) Another scientific group from UK’s MRC Imperial College estimates #P1 at ~2x faster transmission anr with high reinfection potential.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1373506129129578497

12) And there is data that young adult Brazilians are dying more than before— which corroborates the ICU mortality data above from @terrence_mccoy of higher mortality among young adults on ventilators.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1375982129331511299

13) Any more data on increasing young adult mortality in Brazil?

Yes, in Parana 🇧🇷 that wasn’t hit by #P1 in January... the cafe fatality ratio (CFR) spiked in Feb once #P1 arrived by 3x in those age 20-29, and 2x in age 30-59.

This again supports ventilator mortality earlier.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1375628978371854338

14) and I agree— The catastrophic Brazilian response to covid-19 may amount to a crime against humanity

blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/04/05…