Globally, reported #COVID19 cases decreased to 512,000 per day on average compared to 532,800 the week before while reported daily deaths increased to 12,200 per day on average compared to 11,100 the week before. Large surges are seen in Iran, Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh. 1/5
in Bangladesh, daily reported cases in the last week increased to 5,200 per day on average compared to 3,000 the week before. Daily deaths in the last week increased to 110 per day on average compared to 67 the week before. 2/5
In Pakistan, daily reported cases in the last week increased to about 4,700 per day on average compared to about 3,700 the week before. Daily deaths in the last week increased to about 84 per day on average compared to about 61 the week before. 3/5
In India, daily reported cases in the last week increased to 68,600 per day on average compared to 50,200 the week before. Daily deaths in the last week increased to 910 per day on average compared to 570 the week before.
In Iran, daily reported cases in the last week increased to 10,000 per day on average compared to 7,500 the week before. Daily deaths in the last week increased to 110 per day on average compared to 85 the week before. 5/5
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There are five distinct #COVID19 trends globally. 1) In Brazil and some neighboring countries, a P1-driven surge is unfolding with potentially huge impacts on health systems and deaths. 1/10
2) B.1.1.7 surge is unfolding in the northern states of the US and Canada. The rapid increases in cases seen in Michigan may be a marker of what may unfold in other parts of the US and Canada. 2/10
3) Cases and deaths are increasing in Europe despite extensive social distancing mandates, slowly increasing vaccination rates, and reduced mobility. 3/10
تزداد حالات ووفيات #كوفيد١٩ اليومية في الدول العربية. ومع ذالك لا تزال الحركة مرتفعة واستخدام الكمامة منخفض جدًا. هذه التصرفات والانتشار السريع لتحور B.1.1.7 هي أسباب هذه الزيادة. 1/4 covid19.healthdata.org/global
يجب أن تكون التجربة الاوروبية بمثابة تحذير من المخاطر التي ينطوي عليها B.1.1.7.أوروبا فرضت اغلاقات اكثر من الدول العربية ولديها معدلات تطعيم أعلى من المنطقة ، لكنها شهدت زيادات كبيرة في الحالات اليومية وزيادات أبطأ في الوفيات اليومية. 2/4
يتطلب مسار الوباء في المنطقة تدابير وقائية أقوى ويعتمد على الاستجابة السلوكية من حيث الثقة في اللقاح واستخدام الكمامة وتجنب المواقف التي تشكل خطرًا كبيرًا لانتشار الوباء. 3/4
In this week’s update, the impact of vaccination is greater due to information in the Pfizer FDA filing, which shows approximately 50% protection after the first dose, and data on a larger number of doses available sooner in the US. 2/8
The epidemic in the US appears to have leveled off in many Midwestern states while continuing to increase on the West Coast and in parts of the Northeast. 3/8
Addressing the concerns and ensuring widespread use and compliance of vaccines means that we will require an unprecedented level of communication between federal agencies and the American people. 2/12
It is imperative to effectively message and build the public’s confidence in the #COVID19 vaccine. Overcoming vaccine hesitancy is no small task in the current political and cultural climate. 3/12
IHME’s latest forecasts indicate that #COVID19 deaths by Jan 1 has increased in @WHOEMRO from 165,847 last week to 182,311. As of today, about 56,681 deaths have occurred in the region, and our estimates suggest 125,630 deaths from now until January 1. 1/30
If mask wearing in public increases to 95%, there will be around 99,217 deaths, and about 83,094 lives could be saved. This is about a 66% reduction in the number of deaths expected between now and January 1. 2/30
Increasing mask use to the levels seen in Singapore would decrease the cumulative death toll to 2 million, or 769,871 lives saved compared to the reference scenario. This would be a 41% reduction in the deaths expected from now until the end of the year. 2/7
If a herd immunity strategy is pursued – meaning no further government intervention is taken from now to January 1 – then the death toll could increase to 4 million, this would be 3.1 million more deaths from now to the end of the year. 3/7 healthdata.org/sites/default/…