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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
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22 Apr, 9 tweets, 4 min read
I cry for the India 🇮🇳. Brutal epidemic ravaging the country, and hospitals are completely overwhelmed. A staggering 300,000 cases—and possibly 10x underdiagnosis means maybe ~3 million actual cases a day. #COVID19

2) FT thinks underdiagnosis is 10x in India. But some think it’s even higher...
3) By deaths alone, comparing cremations vs reported deaths, some areas have 24x higher underreport.
4) Another clue cases are rising more than actual amount is that positivity is soaring at the same time. That means tests are lagging behind the actual case rise.
5) Rise of another variant—Data submitted from India to the global repository GISAID shows the #B1618, at 12%, is the 3rd most common variant sequenced in the last 60 days. The #B1617, at 28%, is the most common sequenced, followed by #B117. #COVID19

hindustantimes.com/india-news/new…
6) Troubling is how observed crematorium deaths are vastly surpassing officially reported deaths in India 🇮🇳. Error of omission or sin of commission?

nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19…
7) Oxygen crisis will now determine how much faster deaths might soon accelerate. Pray for India.
8) There are no more hospital beds.
9) A hospital in India is now **tweeting for oxygen supplies**. It got some, enough for 2 hours... but now it’s been 2 hours and no further updates.

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
24 Apr
⚠️Nix 6 feet—The risk of being exposed to Covid-19 indoors is as great at 60 feet as it is at 6 feet — even when wearing a mask, according to a new study by MIT researchers who challenge social distancing #COVID19 guidelines adopted across the world. 🧵
cnbc.com/2021/04/23/mit…
2) MIT professors Martin Z. Bazant, who teaches chemical engineering and applied mathematics, and John W.M. Bush, who teaches applied mathematics, developed a method of calculating exposure risk to Covid-19 in an indoor setting that factors in a variety of issues...
3) that could affect transmission, including the amount of time spent inside, air filtration and circulation, immunization, variant strains, mask use, and even respiratory activity such as breathing, eating, speaking or singing.
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
24 Apr
1 million #COVID19 **deaths** projected in India 🇮🇳 by August 2021. The model even assumes vaccines to will bring it under control by May 17th (peak deaths).

God help us. God help India.

(Projections by the world renowned epidemiology center @IHME_UW)
covid19.healthdata.org/india?view=tot… ImageImage
2) the worse case is 1.04 (95% CI 840k-1.25 mil) by August 1st.

Even with universal masks and vaccine rollout, it will likely be 878k (95% CI: 728k-1.07 mil). Image
3) How many projected global #COVID19 deaths? 5 million or so by August 2021. Image
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
23 Apr
💡AMAZING—First high >75% efficacy vaccine for a disease with 229 million cases & 409,000 deaths worldwide in 2019 —#Malaria!

Created by Oxford, produced by Serum Institute of India, & supporting adjuvant by Novavax, SII expects to make 200 mil doses a year!

Science! #vaccine Image
2) A malaria vaccine has taken much longer to come to fruition because there are thousands of genes in malaria compared to around dozen in coronavirus, and a very high immune response is needed to fight off the disease. "That's a real technical challenge”.
bbc.co.uk/news/health-56…
3) Study author Adrian Hill, director of the Jenner Institute and professor of vaccinology at the University of Oxford, said he believed the vaccine was the first to reach the World Health Organization's goal of at least 75% efficacy.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
23 Apr
📍3x KIDS DEATHS—An alarmingly high number of babies & children are dying of #COVID19 in Brazil 🇧🇷. While government data from Brazil suggest >800 children under age 9 have died of Covid—expert estimates that the death toll is nearly **3 times higher**. 🧵
nbcnews.com/news/latino/br… Image
2) experts say the real death toll is higher because cases are underreported because of a lack of widespread coronavirus testing, according to the BBC.
3) Dr. Fatima Marinho of the University of São Paolo, a leading epidemiologist estimated that the virus has killed 2,060 children under 9, including 1,302 babies.
Read 10 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
22 Apr
~SIX TIMES HIGHER IN KIDS—An asymptomatic school study of #COVID19 cases found that infection rates in Omaha Nebraska schools were 2.5x higher for staff and **nearly 6x higher for students** than reported through routine self-initiated tests. 🧵
abcnews.go.com/Health/study-s… Image
2) “The program also found nearly 10 times the cases per population than what was observed through testing in the surrounding county. The study didn’t review origin, just that teachers and students with COVID-19 that was not previously identified because of limited testing”
3) “The results show "as many as nine in 10 student COVID-19 cases and seven in 10 staff cases might be missed by conventional reporting," Dr. Jana Broadhurst, a corresponding author in the study and an assistant professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Center.”
Read 9 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
22 Apr
⚠️OXYGEN SUPPLY COLLAPSE in mere hours—Delhi government reports the current oxygen supply in Delhi hospitals. All <=24 hours oxygen supply. Most under half a day.

Pray for India 🇮🇳 #CovidIndia #COVID19
2) Some hospitals down to just mere minutes of oxygen left. Indian states now fighting each other refusing to send oxygen supplies to other states. indianexpress.com/article/india/…
3) my god... I could stop crying earlier when I watched this. But don’t look away. Please watch this. And tell your friends to vaccinate damnit!!!
Read 9 tweets

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