.@Schroders research:

"The average house in the UK currently costs more than eight-times average earnings (data at Dec 2020).

Before the current episode, this 8X earnings level has only been breached twice previously in the past 120 years."
"It may only be of historic curiosity, but it is interesting that house prices were even more expensive in the latter half of the nineteenth century.

They then went on a multi-decade downtrend relative to earnings. This only bottomed out after World War I."
"Three important drivers of this: more houses, smaller houses & rising incomes.

More houses: doubling in the stock of housing in the UK between 1851 and 1911. It rose from 3.8 million to 8.9 million houses – for reference, today it stands at more than 28 million."
"Smaller houses: Houses built before 1850 were significantly larger than those built after. Prior to 1850, the average house in the UK had a plot size of 913m2 but houses built in the next 50 years had an average plot size of only 268m2."
"Higher incomes: While average house prices fell by 23% between 1845 and 1911 (-0.4% a year), due in part to the two factors above, earnings rose by 90% over the same period (+1.1% a year)."
Bank of England concluded that nearly all of the rise in house prices relative to incomes between 1985-2018 is due to “a sustained, dramatic & consistently unexpected, decline in real interest rates as measured by the yield.

What will RE investors do when rates start to rise?

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More from @TihoBrkan

23 Apr
Join us for an in-depth investor survey over 10 tweets. 👇

Q1: Twelve months after the pandemic, what are you doing in your portfolio?
Q2: What is the most attractive investment opportunity in the coming 1-2 years?
Q3: How optimistic are you on the global stock market (S&P 500, Nasdaq, large-cap stocks, etc) over the coming 1-2 years?
Read 10 tweets
21 Apr
Litigation finance thread.

Considering how expensive traditional assets (stocks & bonds) have become, we are looking at alternatives with uncorrelated behavior to:

• investment cycle
• interest rates
• central banks
• corporate earnings
• unemployment
• credit growth etc
In case of an asset repricing,

similar to those in 1987, 1998 (in Asia), 2000-03 (in Tech), 2007-09 (worldwide), 2011-12 (EU),

there are very few assets that could deliver positive returns while many others are under pressure.

We believe litigation funding is one of them.
Most investors (myself included) would not consider such foreign investment strategies due to high entry barriers and difficulty in comprehending the conditions which would favor successful outcomes.

Getting mentors & other experienced investors to guide us, has been our key.
Read 5 tweets
13 Apr
House price growth in northern cities and towns is continuing to outpace southern locations, including London, according to the latest UK Land Registry data.

thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgage…
Liverpool had risen 16.7% since the UK first went into lockdown last year.

Meanwhile...

In the City of London, the capital's financial district, prices were down 6.5% since March last year. In Westminster and Tower Hamlets, property prices were down 5% & 4.7% respectively.
Australian residential property markets are super hot, with all capital cities experiencing strong auction clearance rates and rapidly rising values.

realestate.com.au/news/property-…
Read 9 tweets
11 Apr
At the end of the bull market, popularity contests are in abundance.

But, if you will buy the most popular companies and allocate to the most popular industries like everyone else, what is your edge to outperform?

"First answer the question, 'What's your edge?" — Seth Klarman
"I think Julian Robertson said it best and I think to some extent that's why the Tiger Cubs have been so successful.

'What is your edge?'

When having a bear or bull discussion, he would constantly say 'what is your edge?', 'what do you know that the market doesn’t?'"
"What is in your process that gives you an edge?

Whether it’s trading-wise, whether it’s research-wise that basically sets you aside?

Do you see things differently and do you see the reality versus the perception of reality?"

— Jim Chanos
Read 4 tweets
6 Apr
Precious metals are a disappointment to the investment community.

Cryptocurrencies have stolen the attention, gold's centuries of history all but forgotten & the business news anchors laugh at metals.

For contrarians, it's probably a good time to start paying attention.
Everyone has their own view on this asset class.

There is a die-hard Goldbugs camp, there is also a lot of hate towards Gold, plus everything in between.

Gold has become very much disliked in the West, while countries like China & India have a strong tradition towards it.
Gold floated in the early 1970s, but my chart starts in 1988 — cutting out the 70s is maybe not a fair way to measure its performance.

Regardless, it should be clear that Gold has had periods of very strong returns (25% CAGR over a decade) as well as disappointing periods.
Read 8 tweets
1 Apr
Emerging Markets thread.

The EM stocks have been consolidating for 14 years plagued by one crisis after another.

For their stocks to outperform, we need:

• sustained weaker $USD
• accelerating growth vs DM
• higher commodities (inflation)
• booming global exports (demand) Image
Relative to the US market, Emerging Markets have been underperforming since 2011 — coincides with the bottom in the $USD.

The underperformance is actually worse if we remove the China Tech sector (Tencent, Alibaba, etc).

EM: a value trap or once-in-a-decade buying opportunity? Image
Within the Emerging Economies complex, Asia has been the outperformer while the rest of the countries have lagged considerably.

The chart below shows the EM ex Asia, which recently traded below the March 2009 bottom (11 years ago).

These countries are dirt cheap, in our view. Image
Read 7 tweets

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