1/9 Bitcoin has performed remarkably these past few weeks despite:
-Most of DeFi falling 50-80%
-CFTC charging BitMEX
-POTUS contracting Covid
-Delayed stimulus talks
-FCA announcing a derivative ban for retail
Why? Let’s see what we can find on-chain
2/9 Bitcoin’s Realized Cap has been steadily increasing just as it did before the 2017 bull market took off. If it continues as it did in 2017, 2021 should be an interesting year.
Chainlink has continued to perform extremely well since early 2019, briefly surpassing $8.00 per $LINK this morning.
Below we take a look at on-chain metrics to see how they stack up in recent times
Both Active Addresses and Transaction Count are up in lockstep, indicating that not only is usage up, but the number of users of the network is growing too
The Adjusted Transfer Value (7dma) has started to spike, surpassing 2020 previous highs, but still a way off mid-2019 all-time highs
On May 10, Coin Metrics’ internal systems fired off an alert that an abnormally large deposit took place on @Gemini. An hour later, markets fell almost 16%
Below we investigate the insights that holistic data strategy could provide during such an event medium.com/@coinmetrics/m…
2/ An hour after 2,500BTC was deposit onto @Gemini, CM noticed more abnormal activity on Gemini, this time in the form of an unusually large 50 $BTC trade. This potentially triggers a few significant market sells on Bitfinex and @coinbase Coinbase in the following seconds.
3/ In the following 5 minutes, there is a significant increase in trade volume across all exchanges, resulting in #Bitcoin's price dropping $800 over the period
For only the fourth time in history, BTC MVRV has dropped below 1. In hindsight, the past periods where MVRV dropped below 1 have been the best times to accumulate BTC at a relatively discounted price.
The large drop in MVRV is because the BTC market cap dropped 46% over the last 7 days, while the realized cap has only dropped 3%
The relatively small drop in realized cap signals that for the most part, longer-term holders are staying strong, and that the recent price action is likely driven by newer buyers.