#PremierLeague Shotstopping Performance Graphic:

#Ederson #Areola #Martinez & #Sanchez have been class 🔥

#Henderson has outperformed #DeGea when it comes to shotstopping 🔄

Despite criticism #Ramsdale #Pickford & #Guaita have performed at a roughly average top flight level 👀
Explanation of ExSaves:

ExSaves are calculated by looking at every shot a GK faces & using the shots distance, angle, trajectory, final location, the number of defenders in the way + other things & using historical data to find the probability that an avg PL GK makes the save...
...Therefore as a rough example a shot from 40yrds at a tight angle that goes down the middle of goal with all the teams defenders behind the ball may have an ExSave of 99% whereas a central 1v1 from 10yrds fired into the bottom corner may have an ExSave of 10%.
If you sum up the save probability of every shot a GK faces you can then find how many saves an average #PremierLeague GK would make based on the shots they have faced & when this is compared with the actual number of saves we can see which GKs are under/over performing.

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More from @Jhdharrison1

4 May
I’ve always thought the discourse surrounding #Pickford is odd

Twitter would make you think he is the worst GK to ever play in the #PremierLeague which isn’t true, he’s an avg #PL shotstopper!

Yes he had a bad 2020 but his recent good form is starting to make up for that

#EFC
Pickford’s #PremierLeague Save% for #Everton = 68.9

Expected Save% for an avg #PL GK who faced the same shots as #Pickford in that time = 69.0

I understand why people think that #England’s #1 should be better than a middle of the road PL GK but the abuse he gets is just crazy!
Also regarding the #England #1 shirt, the main reason he has it is because currently #Southgate believes that being an average shotstopper is outweighed by the fact he is a level above any other English GK when it comes to distributing the ball, especially when under pressure!
Read 5 tweets
13 Apr
Excellent 1st half from #Neuer which more than makes up for last weeks error!

Saving 1v1s continues to be his forte!

He’s putting on a 1v1 decision making & 1v1 technique masterclass

His 1st 1v1 stop was a lovely block which left #Neymar with no gaps to exploit!

#UCL #PSGFCB
His 2nd 1v1 save was a nice spread!
I loved the fact he backed off & didn’t commit himself when #Mbappe ran in 1v1 as he knew #Mbappe was too far from goal to trouble him then as soon as he squared it to #Neymar he realised the shot was now in the engage zone & he then rushed out
If you are wondering what I am talking about in terms of “block”, “spread”, “engage some” etc.

Please read this thread:
Read 5 tweets
12 Apr
THREAD:

#Henderson’s shot prevention has been class in his first 8 #PremierLeague games & its played a big part in #ManchesterUnited’s success!

He is preventing 3.07 chances occurring per game corresponding to ~0.44 ExG per game!

That’s double #DeGea’s ExG prevented per game!
Here I will compare #Henderson’s cross claiming & sweeping (the two branches of shot prevention) so far this year to #DeGea’s & discuss how this has affected #ManchesterUnited’s defence.

I will use my shot prevention model as sadly mainstream models miss many important actions!
Sweeping:

#Henderson’s sweeping has been highlighted after his tidy display vs #THFC & it wasn’t a one off!

So far this year for #ManchesterUnited he has prevented 11 opposition chances occurring by sweeping which corresponds to preventing 0.15 ExG/90 (#PL avg is 0.10 ExG/90)
Read 12 tweets
11 Apr
For me #Martinez has been the #PremierLeague GK of the year

He’s shown class shot stopping, shot preventing & distributing skills & been excellent in 1v1 situations!

#Martinez has saved 11 1v1s this year & my model predicts an avg PL GK would‘ve only managed to save ~8 of them!
I don’t think it is unsustainable form either, especially when talking about 1v1s, because my model shows his excellent decision making is regularly making the saves easier for him!

His Post Decision Ex1v1 Saves is 1.42 saves higher than his Pre Decision Ex1v1 Saves!

#AVFC
Read 5 tweets
10 Apr
Ah #Alisson won’t want to see this again!

There’s 2 mistakes here:

1. Positioning: he’s 6yrd out for a central 15yrd shot thus he cuts his reaction time greatly without reducing the effective goal area a lot.

2. Technique: he goes with his hand rather than his foot!

#LIVAVL
Research has shown the optimum GK position for none 1v1 long range shots is roughly 1.5-2yrd off the line

Once a GK starts positioning themselves further out than this the reduced goal area they have to cover doesn’t outweigh the loss of reaction time hence goals like this occur
In this situation though #Watkins’ finish is actually a poor one as he smashes it down the centre, so #Alisson could’ve got away with his poor positioning but he compounded his first mistake by going with his hand rather than his foot!

#PremierLeague #LIVAVL
Read 4 tweets
10 Apr
#Ederson’s biggest weakness costs #ManchesterCity again!

His habit of rushing out & engaging during long range 1v1s consistently costs goals!

He needs to back pedal into his 6yrd box & force a proper finish

By rushing here he allows a central sidefoot (the easiest finish) in!
My 1v1 model shows that in this situation if a GK back pedals into their 6yrd box they will save this 1v1 91% of the time!

Whereas if they engage & spread as #Ederson did here they will only make the save 48% of the time!

His decision making made a simple save into a hard one!
Also in this situation it should be noted that #Dallas cannot dribble closer to goal due to the immense defensive pressure on him however even if he could dribble closer #Ederson should still wait & lure him in as engaging 1v1s gets more successful the closer the CF is to goal!
Read 5 tweets

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