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11 Apr, 5 tweets, 2 min read
For me #Martinez has been the #PremierLeague GK of the year

He’s shown class shot stopping, shot preventing & distributing skills & been excellent in 1v1 situations!

#Martinez has saved 11 1v1s this year & my model predicts an avg PL GK would‘ve only managed to save ~8 of them!
I don’t think it is unsustainable form either, especially when talking about 1v1s, because my model shows his excellent decision making is regularly making the saves easier for him!

His Post Decision Ex1v1 Saves is 1.42 saves higher than his Pre Decision Ex1v1 Saves!

#AVFC

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More from @Jhdharrison1

John Harrison Profile picture
12 Apr
THREAD:

#Henderson’s shot prevention has been class in his first 8 #PremierLeague games & its played a big part in #ManchesterUnited’s success!

He is preventing 3.07 chances occurring per game corresponding to ~0.44 ExG per game!

That’s double #DeGea’s ExG prevented per game! Image
Here I will compare #Henderson’s cross claiming & sweeping (the two branches of shot prevention) so far this year to #DeGea’s & discuss how this has affected #ManchesterUnited’s defence.

I will use my shot prevention model as sadly mainstream models miss many important actions!
Sweeping:

#Henderson’s sweeping has been highlighted after his tidy display vs #THFC & it wasn’t a one off!

So far this year for #ManchesterUnited he has prevented 11 opposition chances occurring by sweeping which corresponds to preventing 0.15 ExG/90 (#PL avg is 0.10 ExG/90) Image
Read 12 tweets
John Harrison Profile picture
10 Apr
Ah #Alisson won’t want to see this again!

There’s 2 mistakes here:

1. Positioning: he’s 6yrd out for a central 15yrd shot thus he cuts his reaction time greatly without reducing the effective goal area a lot.

2. Technique: he goes with his hand rather than his foot!

#LIVAVL
Research has shown the optimum GK position for none 1v1 long range shots is roughly 1.5-2yrd off the line

Once a GK starts positioning themselves further out than this the reduced goal area they have to cover doesn’t outweigh the loss of reaction time hence goals like this occur
In this situation though #Watkins’ finish is actually a poor one as he smashes it down the centre, so #Alisson could’ve got away with his poor positioning but he compounded his first mistake by going with his hand rather than his foot!

#PremierLeague #LIVAVL
Read 4 tweets
John Harrison Profile picture
10 Apr
#Ederson’s biggest weakness costs #ManchesterCity again!

His habit of rushing out & engaging during long range 1v1s consistently costs goals!

He needs to back pedal into his 6yrd box & force a proper finish

By rushing here he allows a central sidefoot (the easiest finish) in!
My 1v1 model shows that in this situation if a GK back pedals into their 6yrd box they will save this 1v1 91% of the time!

Whereas if they engage & spread as #Ederson did here they will only make the save 48% of the time!

His decision making made a simple save into a hard one!
Also in this situation it should be noted that #Dallas cannot dribble closer to goal due to the immense defensive pressure on him however even if he could dribble closer #Ederson should still wait & lure him in as engaging 1v1s gets more successful the closer the CF is to goal!
Read 5 tweets
John Harrison Profile picture
26 Mar
Here’s a nice example of neutral set positions making saves easier

I’ve already discussed #Henderson’s propensity to set quite low this season & here even though he’s taller than #Pickford he tips an almost identical shot into the roof of the net while #Pickford catches it

#ENG
Another key detail from this clip is how #Pickford moves back to his line while #Henderson moves forwards.

This tiny difference in distance thus reaction time can impact on a GKs ability to make the save as it can be the difference between getting 2 hands to the ball & 1 hand.
In this clip #Pickford & #Henderson also make lots of saves with their feet when the service is lower & #Henderson actually struggles with these too as his lower set position means he needs to get his hands out of the way so it doesn’t even give him an advantage for low shots
Read 6 tweets
John Harrison Profile picture
9 Mar
#Henderson’s cross claiming has been exceptional in his first 5 #PremierLeague appearances

#Henderson boasts a 100% claim success rate while being twice as active the average #PL GK!

His claiming is preventing #ManchesterUnited conceding chances worth ~0.4 ExG per game!

#MUFC
For comparison, #DeGea cross claiming numbers this year are:

Chances Prevented = 0.81
(Only 41% of DH)

ExG Prevented = 0.15
(Only 35% of DH)

Average Claim Distance = 4.5yrd (Only 78% of DH)

Claim Success = 95%
(95% of DH)

Catch Fraction = 58%
(104% of DH)

#ManchesterUnited
For more information on the metrics I quote in the graphics above please see this thread, it explains how I calculate which cross claims prevent chances & which don’t & how I assign ExG values to each claim & why it’s important to look deeper than “total high balls claimed”!
Read 6 tweets
John Harrison Profile picture
7 Mar
Surely @OptaJoe have to change this definition?

How can you classify a cross-shot as not a shot on target if it’s stopped by the GK but as a shot on target if it goes in!

Surely this definition screws up their ExG model? It’s artificially removing nongoal shots?!

#FPLCommunity Image
Surely any ball with a trajectory such that it would be a goal without a GKs intervention must be a shot on target & a save or at least a save & a “cross on target” if for some reason you want to make two separate categories to distinguish the two.

#PremierLeague #FPL
I didn’t realise Opta had such an odd definition until #MartinezGate

I understand potentially why you wouldn’t want to call it a “shot” but it has to be consistent

I.e

if saved = save
if goal = cross on target

You cant have them be shots on target if goals but not if saves!
Read 5 tweets

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