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Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
@BurggrabenH
May 6, 2021 • 9 tweets • 10 min read • Read on X
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Yesterday, @IEA gave a presentation to explain what we already know - we need a LOT of #metals & #minerals to "come clean" and regardless of timing as we are hooked on #oil & #gas for our modern lifestyle. In this thread, I'll share their slides & add some of mine...
2/ According to the @IEA, an EV requires 6x minerals and metals input of a conventional "Otto engine" car.
@Herbert_Diess #Tesla @elonmusk #oott
3/ That means, to meet climate goals, we will need a LOT of #metals & #minerals such as #lithium (not a big deal), #graphite (hmmm), #cobalt (that will be fun), #nickel (hard, easy one in Russia!), #rareearth (really hard) or #copper (too hard to mention below?)...
4/ Obviously, metals & minerals will become an increasingly large share of #batteries' cost and other clean energy tech. What the @iea does not mention is that prices will also have to go up significantly, making them an even bigger part of overall cost. Here is why...
5/ So who mines the mission critical #metals? You guessed it, the EMERGING COUNTRIES mostly. Those countries that make it hard to invest because they have a way to change the rules of the LT investment game...(think taxes; royalties; cash trapping; god forbit - expropriation)
6/ Having doubts? Think Peru. It mines 12% of global #copper. On June 6th the people of Peru may elect a new president which aims to change the "rules of the game" quite a bit...

7/ Meanwhile, there is a "looming" mismatch between #metals supply and climate ambition (demand). In the case of #copper, it is not so looming!

@HedgeyeTV @KeithMcCullough >> Quad 2 forever!?
8/ Yet, it is really hard to bring new supply online. I mean much harder than @IEA thinks. It is simply not a question of money but a question of finding the resource, among others (assume 10-15y to bring a mine online)!

@Ian_H_Lundin @IrLundin
9/ Message: Either governments reconsider their climate ambition or they have to get ready for some old-school looting (think catenary; statue; gutters; etc.) as recycling needs to bridge the gap.

@Mike_Taylor1972

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More from @BurggrabenH

Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Apr 28
Here is my theory how the major incident - a so called blackout - occurred at 12:30 CET today in the power system of Spain & Portugal:

1/n Image
At the time of the incident, Spain and Portugal operated the grid at very high renewables share of about 66% - i.e solar (55%) and wind (11%; eolica)

2/n Image
Image
While this isn’t unusual for Spain, it does mean that the grid operates with little inertia (resistance to change) during such time. The grid is therefore vulnerable to external effects…!

3/n Image
Read 10 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Apr 3
On this platform, certain perma bulls keep pushing a bullish crude narrative based on relative U.S. inventories—day after day, for three years now.

Their logic: Total U.S. crude inventories (including the SPR) are at 838 million barrels (orange line), 200 million barrels below the 10-year average → bullish!

Yet, inventories keep falling, and prices remain stuck in a range. Clearly, they are wrong.

1/9 @UrbanKaoboy @Iris62655179 @BrentRuditLeoImage
The problem with their logic?

a) The U.S. is no longer the marginal importer of crude oil—Asia is (or was).

b) U.S. inventories are artificially high on a 10-year average due to the shale boom, which took off in 2014. Shale growth and Covid distort the data, keeping inventories (ex SPR) elevated. So any 5- or 10-year comparison is meaningless—period.

2/n US Crude Oil Inventory ex SPRImage
Including SPRs, the picture looks more normalised - but not tight. But does the US really need 700mb of strategic reserves in 2025? I don't think so.

3/n US Crude Inv incl SPRs Image
Read 9 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Mar 23
Yesterday, I shared a few thoughts that I’d like to expand on, especially given how volatile the current tariff landscape under this admin has become.

Navigating it isn’t just difficult—it’s nearly impossible to avoid missteps. Hopefully some traders will expand on my thoughts...

1/n
What do we know?

As at 23 March 2025, Comex copper price in New York is trading at 14% premium to LME in London. Buying a tonne of copper in NY costs $11,213 versus 9,842 in London, $1,371 per tonne more than in London.

2/n Image
Why is that? Because of tariff FEARS, not tariffs.

Traders are hedging future risk of potential tariffs on all forms of the raw material, such as cathodes, concentrates, ores, and even scrap. But there aren't such tariffs in place for copper yet (unlike alumnium).

3/n
 fastmarkets.com/insights/us-ta…
Read 9 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Mar 22
A few thoughts on copper.

The current Comex price action in the U.S. is basically a Trump tariff trade mirage and is otherwise as misleading of fundaments as the May 2024 price action of which I warned on multiple occasions.

1/n $/pound Image
In May 2024 however, U.S. price action was more in synch with London. But it didn't reflect weak Chinese housing & construction fundamentals which has been 15-30% of GLOBAL copper use for the past two decades. Today, U.S. prices trade as if borders close tomorrow.

2/n Comex - LME arb in $/tImage
Unlike May 2024, copper blue chips like $FCX, however, do not buy the rally. So at least it seems that the equity market understands the tariff aspect of the copper price mirage.

3/n Change in % Image
Read 15 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Nov 3, 2024
Let's talk China: Episode 5 of 7

In this episode, we discuss China's 2nd of 5 economic paths it can follow.

This episode will also focus on Xi the leader. To understand Xi means to better understand China's economic path forward.

1/n #China Image
Can China replace malinvestment with more consumption?

Answer: Maybe a little bit & over a long time frame, but President Xi does not want to focus on this path. Instead, he wants to implement his socialist utopia.

2/n Image
Yes, China’s rising entrepreneurs were welcomed by the Communist Party for at least two decades. But all of that is in reverse.

Under Xi Jinping, China has moved full circle: from low growth & low freedom in the pre-reform era back towards something similar today.

3/n Image
Read 7 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Oct 29, 2024
Let's talk China, shall we? Episode 4 of 7

In this episode, we discuss China's investment-led growth model & the first of 5 economic paths China can follow.

As you would expect, also this episode is full of Chinese characteristics!

1/n #China Image
Starting in 1990s, China’s economic engine has been fueled by capital investments.

Its central planning bureau defined GDP targets, picked winners and drove growth from debt-driven capital formations (green line).

2/n Image
Has any other nation tried this before, ever? Not to our knowledge.

We checked at ALL G20 economies and their respective growth models for past 70 years. 45% capital formation share is a unique experiment in economic history.

3/n Image
Read 6 tweets

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