62971: Colleague of Case 62873
62972: Auxilliary police officer at T3
63015: Colleague of Case 62873
63026: Passenger escort at T3
Cases 62940, 62942, 62945 from May 8 reclassified from unlinked to linked.
5-7. TTSH cluster
Cases 63007, 63008, 63009 are patients who had been warded in Ward 9D (where most of the cases are linked to).
Current size: 43.
Variant involved: B.1.617.2.
8. Case 62969
Grab driver. Dev'd symptoms on May 7, got tested on the same day. 👍
Resides with his girlfriend who arrived from Vietnam on Apr 12, served SHN until Apr 26. Vietnam is low-risk, though. Infected in quarantine? May need to test her again.
Variant: B.1.617.
9. Case 62998
WFH from Apr 30. Symptoms on May 7, got tested on the same day. 👍
Variant: B.1.617.
10. Case 63005
Landscaper at National Parks. Symptoms on May 6 night, got tested on May 7. 👍
Partially vaccinated (1st dose on Apr 23).
Singapore ATB index (daily average of unlinked community cases in the past week) as of May 9: 1.29.
Several cases working in Changi Airport Terminal 3 were reclassified from unlinked to linked as they formed a new cluster linked to visits to T3 B2.
All clusters could be traced to known imported case/exposure except TTSH cluster.
Changi staff cluster.
Four cases work for the same company. Link to the other cases is through same visited outlets in Terminal 3 Basement 2. Prime candidate would be the food court in T3 B2 where masks are off during eating/drinking.
Among other things, Pfizer-BnT has submitted data to HSA 🇸🇬 for approval to use in kids aged 12-15.
(Anyway, it will take a few more months to get into this age group, probably end of Q3.)
As of May 3, 104 applications for Vaccine Injury Financial Assistance Programme have been received.
75 have been processed with 30 accepted:
- 21 allergic reactions
- 4 neurology-related
- 3 cardiology-related
- 1 haematology case
- 1 dermatology case
(out of 3 million doses)
Breakthrough infections as of May 10:
- Local: 30 (the settings of recent/ongoing outbreaks are in the frontlines -- hospital, airport, seaport)
- Imported: 24
- Most are asymptomatic, no severe case yet
Re-infection cases: 26 (imported 20, local 6 from MOH Situation Report).
Numbers of swabs tested (May 4-10): 535,005 (76,429/day).
Singapore has more than doubled its testing rate within 2 weeks of the new wave of local cases.
1. Case 63068: Manufacturing operator at Siltronic.
Dev'd symptoms on May 6, went to GP and was given MC for 2 days, more symptoms on May 8, went to another GP and got tested on May 9, confirmed on May 10.
Yet another case with unknown source.
2. Case 63069: IT support at Kulicke & Soffa, part-time barista at Starbucks Plaza Singapura & worker at LBC Express @ Lucky Plaza.
Dev'd symptoms on May 6 but still went to work 😥, went to GP on May 8 night, tested on May 9, confirmed on May 10.
Partially vaccinated.
3. Case 63073: OT technician at Ng Teng Fong General Hospital.
Dev'd symptoms on Apr 21, tested on... May 10. 😩
High Ct, serology +ve (well it's really long since onset), had travel history in late Jan. Fingers crossed this is a long Covid case shedding fragments of the virus.
4. Case 63083: Close contact of Case 62969 (Grab driver). Fully vaccinated.
5. Case 63084: Close contact of Case 63005 (NParks landscaper).
6. Case 63078: Bunker tanker crew cluster (current size: 7).
All had been placed and detected in quarantine.
7-13. Changi T3 cluster
63059: Cleaner at T3. Vax'd.
63060: Spouse of 62945
63061: Contact of 62971. Vax'd.
63070: Cleaner at Kopitiam T3
63071: Cleaner at the same company with T3 cluster but deployed elsewhere
63072: Maintenance staff at T3. Vax'd.
63074: Contact of 63055
Case solved
Case 62941 (VJC student) who is previously an unlinked case is now linked to Changi T3 cluster. She visited Kopitiam T3 on May 3 at the same time when Case 62942 and 62945 were there.
Singapore ATB index (daily average of unlinked community cases in the past week) as of May 11: 1.71.
What's really concerning is the number of unlinked cases with no link to the frontlines and no recent travel history continue to increase. We are indeed on knife's edge now.
OT nurse in SKH. Symptoms on May 9 night, tested on May 10, confirmed on May 11.
Fully vaccinated.
Variant: B.1.617.
2. Case 63092
Contact of Cases 62969 and 63083. Recent travel history from Vietnam.
Placed on and detected in quarantine.
Formed a new cluster. Variant involved: B.1.617.
3-9. Changi T3 cluster
63091: IT engineer at T4, visited T3.
63094: ICA officer at T3. Vax'd.
63095: ICA officer at T3. Vax'd.
63097: Cleaner at T3. Vax'd.
63098: Security officer at T3.
63100: Cleaner at T3. Vax'd.
63019: Retail staff at T3. Vax'd.
Singapore ATB index (daily average of unlinked community cases in the past week) as of May 12: 1.71.
Changi T3 cluster is a big deal. Setting of the outbreak is where the vast majority of the staff have been vaccinated and are still routinely tested, and yet it still explodes.
Changi T3 cluster as of May 12:
- Variant: B.1.617.?
- (20-21)/25 are aviation workers
- 15 vax'd, 5-6 not vax'd
- 92% of aviation workers have been vaccinated (Pfizer-BioNTech)
- Estimated efficacy based on this tiny sample size: 74-78%
Among staff (92% vaccinated): 20 vax'd, 9 non vax'd (efficacy: ~80%)
PSA: PLEASE GET TESTED IF YOU HAD VISITED CHANGI FROM MAY 1 ONWARDS.
Singapore ATB index (daily average of unlinked community cases in the past week) as of May 13: 2.14.
The details are depressing with mystery cases of homemaker and FDWs who mostly stayed at home. We are dealing with a very nasty variant which transmits really easily.
Best policy to deal with B.1.617.2 subvariant: Stop it at the border. Don't try this at home.
Cases with unknown source are bad but some are worse than others. Worst type is mystery cases without any link to the frontline (airport/seaport/quarantine facility) or travel history. The list grows faster recently and there are more of these still undetected now.
1. 62236: Personal chauffeur. Symptoms on May 12, tested on May 13. Positive for B.1.617.
2. 63237: Currently unemployed. Symptoms on May 12, tested on May 13. First dose of vaccine on May 10.
Both are mystery cases.
3. 63241: Homemaker. Family member of 63166 (cook at Wok Hey White Sands). Symptoms on May 12, quarantined and tested on May 13.
4. 63249: Retiree. Family member of 63183 (also a retiree). Symptoms on May 6, quarantined and tested on May 13 after identified as her close contact.
5. 63253: Inmate at Changi Prison. Contact of 63160 (chef at Changi Prison, who developed symptoms on May 12). Quarantined and tested on May 13. Asymptomatic.
6-8. Case 63131 (tutor) cluster
63251: Family member of 63187 (1 of the students in the tuition centre). Placed on, detected in quarantine.
63259, 63268: Siblings, students at St Andrew's Jr. Same school bus as 63186 (1 of the students). Symptoms on May 13/14, tested on May 14.
9-10. Case 63096 (SKH nurse) cluster
63256: Student at Palm View Primary.
63257: Student at YCK Primary.
Both are classmates of 63122 (household contact of 63096) at a tuition centre in Hougang. 63257 is also 63122's schoolmate.
Both were placed on and detected in quarantine.
11. TTSH cluster
63248: Patient who had been warded in Ward 9D (where almost all of the cases in this cluster are directly linked to).
Current size of the cluster: 46 (29 patients, 10 HCWs, 7 visitors).
12-19. Changi T3 cluster
Today: 2 staff, 6 contacts
To date (68): 37 staff, 25 contacts, 5 visitors, 1 phylogenetically linked
Among staff (92% aviation workers are vaccinated): 26 vax'd, 11 not vax'd (efficacy: ~79%)
PSA: Please get tested if you had visited Changi from May 1
[Mystery case solved]
Case 62998 (staff at Lendlease Pte Ltd) is now linked to Changi T3 cluster through WGS and phylogenetic analysis. Epidemiological investigations are still ongoing to determine how the cases are linked.
Daily average of unlinked community cases in the past week as of May 15: 2.29.
Entering #NoDineIn period now... stay home and stay safe, folks!
Schools and tuition centres attended by student cases in May 2021 wave.
Several schools and tuition centres still TBC by MOH (probably in today's press release):
- St Margaret's Primary
- Yu Neng Primary
- The Learning Lab United Square
- HCL Katong
Sekolah di Indonesia sudah tutup terlalu lama. Bagi saya pertanyaannya sekarang bukan lagi soal buka/tutup tapi bagaimana dapat membuka sekolah dengan meminimalisir risiko penularannya menjadi serendah mungkin. I'm not saying it's easy, but we must try to open the schools safely.
Kunci paling pentingnya ada di orang dewasanya. Anak-anak adalah peniru yang ulung dan sebenarnya lebih mudah untuk mengadopsi kebiasaan baru. Jika orang tua dan guru disiplin memakai masker, anak-anak juga akan mengikutinya tanpa masalah. Jadilah contoh yg baik bagi anak2 kita.
Indonesia juga memiliki keuntungan geografis dengan iklim tropis yang memungkinkan sekolah dibuka dengan ventilasi yang natural dan baik sepanjang tahun. Jangan gunakan AC, buka jendela/pintu, gunakan kipas angin sebagai tambahan jika perlu.
Tingkat kematian infeksi Covid-19 dan kaitannya dengan penanganan pandemi di Indonesia: Sebuah utas.
Catatan: Utas ini sebaiknya dibaca secara keseluruhan, karena kalau diambil sepotong-potong dapat memberi kesimpulan yang menyesatkan.
Pertama, sekarang kita telah mengetahui lebih banyak tentang penyakit ini. Estimasi tingkat kematian di awal wabah, misalnya, yg ~4% berdasarkan data Wuhan ternyata sangat overestimated berhubung waktu itu kita belum tahu banyak tentang OTG yang ternyata jumlahnya sangat besar.
Selain itu, salah satu karakter utama penyakit Covid-19 adalah faktor risikonya yang sangat asimetris terhadap usia, di mana tingkat kematiannya berkali-kali lipat lebih tinggi seiring bertambahnya usia.
Apa yg kita blm ketahui: Profil efektivitas dari kandidat vaksin Sinovac ini dlm memberikan perlindungan terhadap Covid-19 (apakah level respons imun tsb cukup/tidak?), yg akan dijawab oleh uji klinis fase 3.
Target WHO sendiri tidak muluk2 amat: 50% efficacy utk pemberian izin.
Akar masalahnya di mindsetnya, yaitu ingin mencari2 'kabar baik' sampai perlu menggunakan indeks yg irelevan spt % kasus aktif dan glorifikasi tingkat kesembuhan.
Dan pemerintah pun bingung melihat masyarakat meremehkan wabah ini. Like whaddya think?!
Belum lagi masalah klasik tidak sinkronnya data pusat dgn daerah, yg mengakibatkan sulitnya 'membaca' data Indonesia, apakah merefleksikan skala wabah yg sesungguhnya atau tidak.
@jokowi tahu/tidak kalau sistem pelaporan data @KemenkesRI perlu dibenahi?
Sebenarnya saya sudah capek ngomong tentang hal berikut, tapi berhubung @KemenkesRI-nya bebal dan tidak kapok2 juga, berikut utas untuk mendokumentasikan buruknya pelaporan data Covid-19 oleh @KemenkesRI. ⬇️⬇️
Pada dasarnya ada 2 isu yg sudah lama & tidak kunjung dibereskan juga:
(1) Pelaporan yg tidak apa adanya, bisa ditahan-tahan atau sebaliknya dirapel sekaligus.
Hal ini juga sudah dihighlight oleh @WHOIndonesia sejak lama dalam Situation Report mingguannya sampai skrg.
Contoh baru2 ini: Pelaporan data kematian di Jabar. Sempat ada pelaporan sebanyak 15 kematian/hari selama 7 hari berturut-turut, yg sebenarnya itu sedang ngerapel ketinggalan dengan jumlah kematian versi provinsi.
Dapat dilihat bgmn selisihnya berkurang spjg rapelan tsb.
Mengapa kami di @KawalCOVID19 mengadvokasikan lockdown / #KarantinaWilayah / apapun namanya, intinya setiap warga di wilayah tsb diwajibkan diam di rumah & dipelihara oleh negara selama masa karantina utk menjamin putusnya rantai penularan wabah ini utk sementara.
[sebuah utas]
Pendahuluan: biasakan untuk berpikir dalam kerangka EKSPONENSIAL ketika membahas wabah ini.
Ini tdk intuitif, krn kita terbiasa dgn cara berpikir linear. Linear itu sederhana. Kalau dari 1 kasus menjadi 2 kasus butuh 4 hari, dari 1.000 kasus menjadi 2.000 kasus butuh 4.000 hari.
Sementara eksponensial itu begini.
Kalau dari 1 kasus menjadi 2 kasus butuh 4 hari, maka:
- Dari 100 kasus menjadi 200 kasus butuh 4 hari juga
- Dari 1.000 kasus menjadi 2.000 kasus butuh 4 hari juga
- Dari 10.000 kasus menjadi 20.000 kasus butuh 4 hari juga